Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

From afar I am puzzled that infiltration is a current problem. As another thread attests to Azad Kashmir based militants are not crossing the Line of Control; there was a report in late 2012 four had. I had read awhile ago that Pakistan had heavily restricted activity.

What is the level of activity?

The other thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=15691&page=2

[Ray]

Ray,

From afar I am puzzled that infiltration is a current problem. As another thread attests to Azad Kashmir based militants are not crossing the Line of Control; there was a report in late 2012 four had. I had read awhile ago that Pakistan had heavily restricted activity.

What is the level of activity?

The other thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=15691&page=2

Infiltration is on all the time.

It waxes and wanes, but it continues all the time.

Of late the Pakistanis have been repeatedly violating the ceasefire and so, maybe India retaliated.

It is all a part of life on the LC.

The actual numbers are not released and in fact played down because the Govt is on a policy to defuse the animosity and build bridges.

It has succeeded to some extent, though some doubt it and think it is a sell out to Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

First the BBC reports a second clash, this time with Pakistani troops crossing the LoC, with two dead Indian soldiers:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20945842

Twitter has unconfirmed reports that: a) one soldier's head removed and is missing, other body also mutilated; b) the Pakistani soldiers were from the SSG (SOF) and c) from Jason Burke (from The Observer):

Three possible reasons for clash. 1 hot headed commanders in sector, 2. tactical aim to infiltrate militants where no snow. 3 Pak Army wants to stir up eastern frontier to bolster domestic credentials and give Washington a fright.

Just great, one can only hope for a blizzard to descend upon the LoC and freeze both sides.

[omarali50]

IF even 50% of various accounts (like this one, most detailed yet: http://www.telegraphindia.com/113010...p#.UOziJ47R1SU ) are true we most likely had usual ### for tat shenanigans until yesterday, but beheading is a definite extreme provocation. If that is what happened (that persons in Pak army uniforms crossed the border and beheaded one or maybe two Indian soldiers) then possibilities would include:
1. Hot-headed local commander
2. Hot-headed (and extremely provocative) move by the high command
3. Cold blooded high command move to escalate tensions in the cause of some domestic priorities (set stage for new caretaker regime? derail excessive Indo-Pak bonhomie from the civilian regime?). All of these options sound insane, but you never know.
4. Jihadi false-flag operation? After all, they carry out operations wearing Pak army uniforms all the time within Pakistan. Why not

Are there other possibilities?

3 would seem to be the real danger here. The rest can all blow over eventually.

What do people think?

Btw, from a military professional point of view, this will probably lead to a serious inquiry on the Indian side. If a pakistani soldier was killed 2 days ago, one would expect the opposing army to be extra alert. To get 2 soldiers killed can happen to any unit on military duty in hazardous zones, but to have the attackers behead them and take the heads away? that doesnt look good.

[omarali50]

That comment grew into this blog post about escalation on the LOC

http://www.brownpundits.com/2013/01/...ne-of-control/

[blueblood]

IF even 50% of various accounts (like this one, most detailed yet: http://www.telegraphindia.com/113010...p#.UOziJ47R1SU ) are true we most likely had usual ### for tat shenanigans until yesterday, but beheading is a definite extreme provocation. If that is what happened (that persons in Pak army uniforms crossed the border and beheaded one or maybe two Indian soldiers) then possibilities would include:
1. Hot-headed local commander
2. Hot-headed (and extremely provocative) move by the high command
3. Cold blooded high command move to escalate tensions in the cause of some domestic priorities (set stage for new caretaker regime? derail excessive Indo-Pak bonhomie from the civilian regime?). All of these options sound insane, but you never know.
4. Jihadi false-flag operation? After all, they carry out operations wearing Pak army uniforms all the time within Pakistan. Why not

Are there other possibilities?

3 would seem to be the real danger here. The rest can all blow over eventually.

What do people think?

Btw, from a military professional point of view, this will probably lead to a serious inquiry on the Indian side. If a pakistani soldier was killed 2 days ago, one would expect the opposing army to be extra alert. To get 2 soldiers killed can happen to any unit on military duty in hazardous zones, but to have the attackers behead them and take the heads away? that doesnt look good.

Omar, it is somewhat disappointing to see that even educated Pakistanis like yourself believe that it was a ### for tat retaliation by PA. IA has nothing to gain from ceasefire violation unlike PA. If there is, please enlighten me.

PA on the other hand is well known for such barbarism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajay_Ahuja

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saurabh_Kalia

Two of the many examples out there.

Despite these incidences IA buried Pak soldiers with due respect when PA refused to accept the bodies.

I was just watching Salman Khurshid's (Minster External affairs) interview. For half an hour he kept repeating the rhetoric. Fuc**** moron.

[davidbfpo]

We all know a spark can cause a conflagration, if this report is true "It was grannie that done it".

Indian bunker construction on the northern reaches of the Line of Control — initiated after a grandmother crossed into Pakistan-administered Kashmir to be with her sons — sparked off a spiral of violence.....Early in September, 70-year old Reshma Bi, left the village of Charonda, near Uri, to live with her sons and grandchildren across the Line of Control....appeared to have left in the hope of living out her last years with her family.

Link:http://m.thehindu.com/news/national/....co%2FNnMvH7SX

[davidbfpo]

An Indian commentary on the potential crisis in Kashmir, on the wider context and concludes:

Pakistan has suffered far more deaths in sectarian violence and terrorist incidents than India. In 2012, they lost more than 6,000 lives compared to India, which saw about 800 deaths. This alone should have compelled them to clamp down on the non-state actors working as death merchants.

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...scopic-as-ever

[Ray]

First the BBC reports a second clash, this time with Pakistani troops crossing the LoC, with two dead Indian soldiers:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20945842

Twitter has unconfirmed reports that: a) one soldier's head removed and is missing, other body also mutilated; b) the Pakistani soldiers were from the SSG (SOF) and c) from Jason Burke (from The Observer):

Just great, one can only hope for a blizzard to descend upon the LoC and freeze both sides.

The niggling issue is the beheading of the head and carrying back by the Pakistanis.

This is what may cause an issue because the Pakistanis had mutilated an officer they captured and killed during the Kargil War and which has been hotly debated in India and the Govt is being pressurised to take up the case since mutilation and torture apart from contravening the Geneva Convention is also an insane and inhuman act.

[davidbfpo]

The Indian military spokesman, with my emphasis:

The body of one of the soldiers was found mutilated in a forested area on the side controlled by India...(he) denied Indian media reports that one body had been decapitated and another had its throat slit..

The Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman:

Two Indian soldiers were killed in the attack and their bodies subjected to barbaric and inhuman mutilation.

Well I suppose that counts for clarity Indian style!

Back to my question and Ray's answer on activity along the LoC:

Firing and small skirmishes are common along the 740-km (460-mile) LoC despite a ceasefire that was agreed in 2003.

However, incursions by troops from either side are rare. Retired Indian army Brigadier...said Tuesday's incident - about 600 metres from the de facto border - marked the most serious infiltration since the ceasefire was put in place.

Link:http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...90802T20130109

[Ray]

The Indian military spokesman, with my emphasis:

The Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman:

Well I suppose that counts for clarity Indian style!

Back to my question and Ray's answer on activity along the LoC:

Link:http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...90802T20130109

Project Pakistan is Prime Minister's pet desire of his lifetime wherein there is peace and amity at all costs.

That is why even after 26/11 (Mumbai), the peace initiative continued inspite of national anger.

The military has to ensure that they do not contradict the Govt plans by stating anything that appears out of sync.

The Deputy GOC of the Div on Indian TV was categorical.