Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

[Bill Moore]

Gurkha,

I don't doubt what you're writting, but I can't help but think as I look at the statistics showing reduced violence in Kashmir since 2001 that it has something to do with the conflict in Afghanistan, and that after ISAF withdraws and the issue in Afghanistan is resolved one way or the other that violence will once again increase in Kashmir.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

The conflict in Kashmir is as much a state versus state (Pakistan and India) conflict as an internal conflict, so even if the average Kashmiri isn't excited about fighting for the reasons you listed, it seems probable that Pakistan will continue to send foreign fighters into Kashmir to stir up trouble even if they can't mobilize the population. Currently Pakistan is too busy with Afghanistan and dedicating their resources there to help the insurgents in Afghanistan.

It may not be an insurgency, but it will likely continue to be a fight against foreign militias until the issue is resolved between India and Pakistan.

Thoughts from an outsider.

[Gurkha]

True but it will not rise the way it did after the last Afghan war because, firstly the Kashmiris are no longer swayed (the vast majority of them) by calls for jihad, the Pakis now fully realize the extent of the demon they have created and finally because of the comprehensive anti-infiltration measures on the Line of Control & the CI grid in the Valley. The troop concentration In Kashmir is probably the highest ever achieved in the world.Attempts to infiltrate will increase and some will get through but unless the political establishment muffs it up yet again, the hearts & minds of the Kashmiri people are no longer with the fight. However, India is watching AfPak with trepidation and is preparing for the worst.......