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Thread: Kashmir: a simmering, sometimes brutal small war

  1. #61
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default More police, less soldiers

    Within an article on scaling down the military presence in Kashmir and placing the emphasis on the police are several facts, here are some:
    The principal reason to consider scaling back the Army’s counter-insurgency presence in Kashmir is simple: there isn’t an insurgency to be fought. Ever since the 2001-2002 near-war between India and Pakistan, levels of violence in the State have fallen steadily. In 2001, as many as 1,067 civilians, 590 security forces personnel, and 2,850 terrorists were killed in fighting. The numbers fell in 2003 to 658 civilians, 338 security forces and 1,546 terrorists. Last year’s numbers, the authoritative South Asia Terrorism Portal records, were 20 civilians, 61 security forces and 100 terrorists.

    In population-adjusted terms, the insurgency in J&K cost 1.51 lives per 100,000 persons of its population, lower than the homicide rate in Delhi or Haryana. The State’s total firearms fatalities were well below those in Uttar Pradesh (1,575 in 2012) or Bihar (681) or even West Bengal (269).
    Link:http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...le5597916.ece?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-24-2014 at 05:42 PM. Reason: copied to preventing aq expansion thread for context
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  2. #62
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    Default Calm Before Storm?

    The author of this article, Praveen Swami, has overlooked the strategic aims of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia backed Islamists in South Asia.

    These Islamists, such as Pakistani intelligence backed Lashkar-e-Taiba want to “recapture” India for Islam. Under this vision, a radicalized Kashmir is to be used as a base for escalating radicalization of India’s Muslim minorities and formation of jihadist groups in the Indian heartland. The Islamists have made great strides in this direction. It has just been noted that a group modeled after (Pakistan-based) Tahreek-e-Taliban has now taken root in the central Indian city of Aurangabad.

    Strategically, from an Islamist view, there is little to be gained by intensifying jihad in Kashmir at this time as it would invite retaliation by the Indian army, bring hardships to the local (Muslim) population, and make them reluctant to help the Islamist cause. Fundamentally, India (like every other nation) has failed to understand why the locals have been drawn to radical ideologies and how to extricate them. That’s the bottom line.

    In my 2009 book, Defeating Political Islam: The New Cold War, an entire section titled, “Siege of India (pp: 81-133)” is devoted to a discussion of the ongoing multi-front jihadist assault on India.

    This may be one of those situations where a storm is waiting in the wings of the calm.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-24-2014 at 05:42 PM. Reason: copied to preventing aq expansion thread for context

  3. #63
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    Default Moorthy: Welcome

    There are a number of threads here at SWC to which you could contribute.

    For the benefit of other members/viewers, I don't know Moorthy (his first name, BTW); but I've just looked up his book, Defeating Political Islam: The New Cold War (2009). Here's the Amazon pitch:

    Al Qaeda and its sympathizers are often viewed as isolated fanatics outside of the mainstream Muslim population—outlaws not only in the West but also in respectable Muslim nations. This book argues just the opposite: that in fact terrorism is the logical outgrowth of an international Islamic political agenda that is endorsed and funded by Islam’s major players—Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan. Author Moorthy S. Muthuswamy labels these nations the "Axis of Jihad". For decades, he says, they have been devoted to extending their spheres of influence in the name of religion.

    Utilizing a recent groundbreaking statistical analysis of Islamic doctrines and an analysis based upon the outlook of Muslims, he discusses the possibility that Islam is less a religion and more an ideology of conquest.

    Muthuswamy urges US policymakers to rethink the War on Terror along the lines of the successfully waged Cold War against communism. The nuclear physicist-author makes the following main point:

    Like the Cold War, this war is more a contest of ideas than armed conflict. Rather than placing the emphasis on military might and costly wars abroad, the West should invest the bulk of its effort in a science-based ideological war, one that is directed at discrediting the simplistic, conquest-oriented theological roots of Islamist indoctrination and jihadist politics.

    Muthuswamy also emphasizes the importance of a largely non-Muslim India in the War on Terror, in view of its location and size. The India-born author gives a fascinating description of modern Islamic conquest in South Asia. His insights into the Islamist siege and subversion of Indian democracy should be revealing for the citizens of western democracies.

    The author asserts that the West needs India in dealing with the conundrum that is Pakistan, as they both share language, culture, and more with each other.

    This fresh perspective on the ongoing threat from Islamist terrorism offers much to ponder about the future course of US foreign policy initiatives.
    I also found two reviews. One (by Diana West in the WT), BOOK REVIEW: Reversing U.S. policy in AfPak, is favorable. The other (by GB Singh in NER), Dangerous Policy, is unfavorable. The latter attacks Moorthy's message, but also attacks the messenger (IMO). I did take Mr Singh's advice on one point: I will read the book !

    Moorthy, the concept here at SWC is to attack the message (ruthlessly), but not to attack the messenger. In short, an officer and a gentlemen standard works best in preventing flaming and in keeping learnable conversations going. In that context and in my opinion, Mr Singh should have left out the last half of his last paragraph.

    I encourage you to post here, not only in this thread but elsewhere.

    Regards

    Mike
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-24-2014 at 05:43 PM. Reason: copied to preventing aq expansion thread for context

  4. #64
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    MoorthyM:

    If the 'Preventing AQ expansion' thread gets going you gotta get into the discussion. The US needs some ideas beyond Preds shooting Hellfires.

    Moderator adds: new thread created, so please post there and so next two posts have been moved (ends)
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-24-2014 at 05:43 PM. Reason: copied to preventing aq expansion thread for context
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Default

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJHn7GqH1mk

    Nice video tried to cover a lot of subjects like stone pelting, Op Sadbhavna, officer-soldier scuffle etc.

  6. #66
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default What does this mean?

    I am not sure what the intention of the new Indian central government is here; no doubt it is a mixture of factors:
    The new government's only planned initiative in the northern region so far is a mass movement of population. Hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits Hindus who had fled the Kashmir valley in the 1990s ....
    The author is not impartial and this appears not in the 'news', but in the 'comment' section:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...u-human-rights
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    I am not sure what the intention of the new Indian central government is here; no doubt it is a mixture of factors:

    The author is not impartial and this appears not in the 'news', but in the 'comment' section:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...u-human-rights
    Can't think of why India wants to hold onto Kashmir which has hisgtorically had 80-90% muslim population.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Can't think of why India wants to hold onto Kashmir which has hisgtorically had 80-90% muslim population.
    Kashmir is NOT one entity.

    It has the Valley - predominantly Sunni Muslim.

    Leh - Buddhists, who want a separate State.

    Kargil - Shias who hate the Sunnis of the Valley.

    Jammu - Hindu.

    It is a misconception that J&K is a Muslim State.

    Historically, the Muslims of Kashmir were the highest caste of Hindus - Brahmins!

    They were coerced and tortured by the Afghans and the Chak of Central Asia to become Muslim.

    The Sufi Muslim saints quoted Hindu Gods in their scriptures and poems.

    Read the book, if you can lay your hands on - The valley of Kashmir (1895), by Lawrence, who was a British administrator in J&K.



    https://archive.org/details/valleyofkashmir00lawruoft

    The Kashmiri Muslims don't eat beef which is a Hindu religious taboo!

    It is just this pan Islamic wave and Saudi money through Pakistan that has incited the people.

    Money speaks it appears.
    Last edited by Ray; 07-04-2014 at 06:44 PM.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    I am not sure what the intention of the new Indian central government is here; no doubt it is a mixture of factors:

    The author is not impartial and this appears not in the 'news', but in the 'comment' section:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...u-human-rights
    India is a secular country.

    If Kashmir goes, thanks to vested interests and not solely Moslem, then there will be a bloodbath in India since none will stomach a Second Partition on religious grounds.

    And will Pakistan, which is already tottering with internal confusion and a dead and dying economy, be able to absorb the exodus?

    The imbalance will be catastrophic not only to India, but to the world.

    All are worried about the same.

  10. #70
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Zeal for insurgency wanes among former Kashmir militants

    One of the BBC's reporters has been to Azad Kashmir Pakistan-administered) and reports:
    Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif's recent statement that "Pakistan and Kashmir are inseparable" has added to tensions between India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed neighbours each claim Kashmir in its entirety, and occupy different parts of it. But as the BBC's M Ilyas Khan discovered on a recent visit to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir and the base camp for the insurgency, all is unusually quiet.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33359800
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  11. #71
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    Default The "devils in the detail":Location, timing and method

    A detailed article by Shashank Joshi (RUSI) via the Australian Lowy Institute's email briefing:
    On 27 July, three (Kashmiri) militants crossed from Pakistan into the Indian state of Punjab, according to GPS sets they were carrying. They planted five IEDs on a railway track, targeted bus passengers and holed up in a police station in Gurdaspur 20km from the border, eventually killing seven Indians. The attackers were themselves killed by local police after a day's siege.
    Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...d-method.aspx?
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    Default India and Pakistan: the long view

    a longish article, but covers a lot (I think, obviously)

    http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...long-view.html

  13. #73
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    A grim update on a long suspected "dirty war":
    Imroz and his team redoubled their efforts, spreading their net across 55 villages in three districts, Bandipora, Baramulla and Kupwara. An ad-hoc inquiry run by volunteers and funded by donations saw the number of unmarked and mass graves mapped rise to 2,700. Inside them were 2,943 bodies; 80% of them unidentified.....And a new deposition submitted by Imroz's field workers covering two more districts, Rajoori and Poonch, mapped 3,844 more unmarked and mass graves, taking the total number to more than 6,000. There are still another 16 districts yet to be surveyed, leaving Imroz to wonder how many violent deaths and surreptitious burials have been concealed across Kashmir.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...es-of-kashmir?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-08-2016 at 10:30 PM. Reason: 29,190v on 8th July 2016.
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  14. #74
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    A success for India and not popular locally:
    Indian authorities have imposed an indefinite curfew in most parts of Kashmir, a day after government forces killed the top rebel commander in the disputed Himalayan region, officials said, describing it as a major success against fighters opposed to Indian rule.
    Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/09/india-imposes-kashmir-curfew-after-death-of-rebel-leader?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-09-2016 at 10:28 PM. Reason: 29,241v
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  15. #75
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    Default Non-lethal force, more PR for the insurgents

    Insight into one aspect of the disorder in Kashmir via Katoh's comment on a SWJ article, not on Kashmir:
    Lately in the militancy affected Kashmir Valley in India there was a wave of unrest post the killing of a 22 year old militant commander who had risen to fame on account of his good looks, ISIS style of videographed threat messages (given without masking his face) and his adroit use of social media.
    The police forces in Kashmir used Pellet guns to quell the unrest since protests in Kashmir very quickly and often assume a hue of deadly violence. Use of these guns had been introduced in 2010 to reduce the fatalities among rioting supporters of militants.
    However, this non lethal weapon resulted in a number of eye injuries on account of the large crowds on the streets including bystanders. Human nature being what it is, a dead rioter goes out of public gaze in a short time. If the number of fatalities is large then the media does not even publicise names. However young people sans their previous malevolent disposition and lying on a hospital bed with bandages over one/both eyes/bloodshot eyes lead to an outpouring of pity.
    Consequently the Pellet Gun which was introduced in Kashmir with good intentions got demonized by local politicians, NGOs and the media.
    Link:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...egular-warfare
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  16. #76
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Reality check needed

    An unusual critic a former Indian Army officer asks questions what is happening in Kashmir, where 500k security personnel are deployed, a 1 to 25 ratio and with extra-ordinary powers, let alone weaponry:http://blogs.economictimes.indiatime...ed-in-gujarat/

    A sample:
    Wani, a Hizbul Mujahideen commander, was gunned down by security forces, and Kashmir erupted, leaving 50 protesters dead, thousands injured, many blinded for life, with curfew in the Valley for more than 25 days. The CRPF continues to use pellet guns. Our most disciplined force, the Indian Army, was even accused of firing at elderly women. On Wednesday, an ATM security guard Reyaz Shah was shot at point blank range by security forces. He had 360 pellets in his body. I still hear many cases of the ‘midnight knock’. This has to stop. There has to be some accountability. No one can touch the security forces, thanks to the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), a “dirty word” to quote former R&AW chief A S Dulat.
    Not familiar with the issues this very short polemic helps; it is from Aljazeera:http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...094424509.html

    Post 193 on the Indian insurgency thread explains AFSPA:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=2248&page=10
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-06-2016 at 09:26 PM. Reason: 30,825v 1600 views in three weeks
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  17. #77
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    Default Change the strategy

    Hat tip to WoTR for this review piece by an American South Asian SME:http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/the...gy-in-kashmir/

    I had not seen the public statements by the Indian military that they could do no more. Curious to see the emphasis on better policing too.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-14-2016 at 04:14 PM. Reason: 34,017v
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  18. #78
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    Default Keeping the "pot" bubbling: the hidden hand

    The unrest in Kashmir this summer has been far greater than usual, notably the response to the death of a young, popular Kashmiri militant in July and often builds up before the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

    An Indian think tank's research suggests deaths have dropped:
    See:http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...casualties.htm

    Even before today's attack some suspected the Pakistani military have renewed the "militant" option:http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/pakis...irth-of-jihad/

    Last night un-named "militants" upped the temperature, as the BBC reports in this backgrounder:
    Militants have attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says.All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37399969
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-18-2016 at 07:00 PM. Reason: 34,526v
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  19. #79
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    Default Whoops

    It appears that India has learnt little:
    An imminent cross border terrorist attack should have been anticipated by our counter-terrorist agencies if the September 17 statement of Vikash Chandra – inspector general of the Border Security Force, Kashmir frontier – to PTI was correct. He said that around200 militants from across the border were trying to infiltrate. He added that some had already sneaked in. No doubt he had made this statement – which came before the Uri attack on September 18 – to support the Modi government’s allegation that Pakistan was influencing the Valley unrest. But anybody who knows Pakistan’s activities would have realised that there was no need for it to physically send terrorists across the border merely to throw stones; if 200 men were coming, then this was for something much more sinister.
    Another news report on September 19is more disconcerting. This would indicate that the entire intelligence process had broken down in the valley. TheIndian Express quoted a “senior police officer” saying that the multi-agency centre (MAC) in Srinagar which is meant to “fuse” counter-terror intelligence from different agencies has not met since protests began in the Valley, i.e. from the second week of July. It cited another “top police officer” that no reliable figures on successful infiltration attempts could be collated since “the protests have caused a breakdown in our information network”.
    Link:http://thewire.in/67174/uri-attack-a...t-pause-leaps/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-20-2016 at 11:18 AM. Reason: 34,794v
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  20. #80
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    Default India's strategic restraint on Kashmir

    An excellent explanation of the current crisis by Shashank Joshi, via the Australian blog Lowy Interpreter:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...n-Kashmir.aspx

    Point to note:
    The Uri attack killed 18 soldiers, but this has to be understood in the context of the death of 135 members of Indian security forces this year alone, including 64 in Kashmir.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-28-2016 at 12:17 PM. Reason: 35,832v
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