Ripples from Mali: events plus outside Mali

[davidbfpo]

Much of the rhetoric and reporting on Mali has stressed the dangers from the creation of a 'Sahelistan', a safe haven for AQ and allies. As the situation inside Mali develops I thought a second, parallel thread would be necessary.

No-one in Paris - or any other Western capital - wants parts of Mali to become like Afghanistan in the 1990s - a place where acts of terror further afield could be planned and where people would then ask why something was not done earlier.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21018675

The fate of French hostages, from the Sahel to Somalia, is unclear. From the BBC link some details:

Pierre Legrand, 26, Daniel Larribe, 59, Thierry Dole, 29, and Marc Feret, 43, were kidnapped in northern Niger in 2010 by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM); Philippe Verdon and Serge Lazarevic, were kidnapped in northern Mali in November 2011 by AQIM; Gilberto Rodriguez Leal, 61, was kidnapped in western Mali in November 2012 by the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao); and Francis Collomp, 63, was kidnapped in Nigeria by Islamist group Ansaru

[davidbfpo]

For a very long time attacks on the Algeria oil and natural gas fields in southern Algeria has been an issue, IIRC with very few attacks, even during the recent civil war (not ended, but quieter).

So is this the first 'ripple' from Mali? Note the facts are not clear; an attack on a gas field base, with expat staff kidnapped @ Tiguentourine? Three to six foreigners taken (two Japanese) and two guards killed:http://elwatan.com/actualite/attaque...199732_109.php

Two BP staff killed and 'Libyan' accents on a later report.

Link to map, zoom out to see:http://mapcarta.com/17299028

Tiguentourine is 1300 kms south of Algiers and a long way from Bamoko.

As Andrew Lebovich notes:

An attack on an oil facility in southern Algeria is, well, a big deal.

Slightly different report on:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21042659

[KingJaja]

David,

Have you noticed that Boko Haram has been bit quiet over the past few months? It could be that the jihadis have moved over to Mali, Nigerian security is more effective or a bit of both.

Whatever happens, if Mali proves too hot to handle, they'll hop over to Niger and yes, Nigeria. Nigeria is the major prize - and it keeps me worried.

Will it be possible for the French and ECOWAS to "destroy" all the jihadis - I doubt it. They will have a large expanse of poorly governed space to ply their trade.

Granted, the French could control Bamako, Niamey and the major towns, but what about the rest of this space?

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja asked:

Have you noticed that Boko Haram has been bit quiet over the past few months? It could be that the jihadis have moved over to Mali, Nigerian security is more effective or a bit of both.

No I hadn't, but unless it is an outrage Nigeria rarely gets a mention here, nor do i search for updates. There was a Tweet today that the FT had an article making that suggestion - militants had gone to Mali - but I am unable to identify the report.

Whatever happens, if Mali proves too hot to handle, they'll hop over to Niger and yes, Nigeria. Nigeria is the major prize - and it keeps me worried.

I am aware that African borders are to say the least porous, even more so in this region. Defeated, injured and deserting militants may appear, but they may also have "had enough".

Strategically Nigeria is far more important that Mali or 'Sahelistan'; just Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan. That does not mean those involved in decision-making stand back beforehand. I do find the AU and other African nations welcome for the French action useful, but double-edged as it enables Africa to let others - France plus - do the "heavy lifting".

Will it be possible for the French and ECOWAS to "destroy" all the jihadis - I doubt it. They will have a large expanse of poorly governed space to ply their trade.

Granted, the French could control Bamako, Niamey and the major towns, but what about the rest of this space?

The jihadis can be destroyed as an effective threat if they stay together and do not hide amongst the people - in the settled parts of Mali, i.e. along the river. Once they leave for the "outback" and go silent that is when pursuing them and killing them will get hard - for any force. Incidentally I do not see ECOWAS going into the "outback". There are IMHO options to degrade the jihadi threat in the "outback", notably over access to fuel and water. Jihadis will not walk around, even if feasible in the environment.

In the end the French and other have bought or could buy time for Mali to reform, not just training the military.

[KingJaja]

David,

Thanks for your response, but it is the "combat experience" those guys get from Mali that worries me.

OTOH, there's an interesting article in the Hindu: http://www.thehindu.com/news/interna...cle4305099.ece

On Thursday, January 10, a public bus operated by the Sonef transport company arrived on the outskirts of Konna, a small town 700 km north of Bamako, the capital of Mali.

It was market day in Konna, and soldiers at the checkpoint on the Konna-Gao road waved the bus through. At the next checkpoint at the entry to the town, soldiers clambered into the bus for a routine security check when the passengers gunned them down. Heavily armed Islamist rebels poured out of the bus, destroying the checkpoint as more fighters arrived in a convoy of jeeps and pickup trucks and fanned out across the town.

[davidbfpo]

The kidnapping operation in southern Algeria continues to develop; now it appears that a new 'spin off" AQIM group is responsible, they have taken over forty Western hostages and are holding them within a natural gas facility. Yet to read a good summary; partly due to the isolated location and Algeria's ability to disconnect communication links.

The Arabist blog has a good overview of the French action and the likely regional 'ripples'. It ends with:

The main takeaway for the Maghreb – it’s important to remember that the Sahara is very big and population centers in the Maghreb are very far removed from what’s taking place in Mali. To be sure, there are shared sympathies, but each of these will manifest differently in the different Maghreb countries.

Link:http://www.arabist.net/blog/2013/1/1...e-maghreb.html

[Dayuhan]

Have you noticed that Boko Haram has been bit quiet over the past few months? It could be that the jihadis have moved over to Mali, Nigerian security is more effective or a bit of both.

Whatever happens, if Mali proves too hot to handle, they'll hop over to Niger and yes, Nigeria. Nigeria is the major prize - and it keeps me worried.

Will it be possible for the French and ECOWAS to "destroy" all the jihadis - I doubt it. They will have a large expanse of poorly governed space to ply their trade.

Granted, the French could control Bamako, Niamey and the major towns, but what about the rest of this space?

To what extent are these conflicts driven by mobile transnational jihadis hopping from place to place, and to what extent are they driven by less mobile indigenous groups? I'd like to know more, for example, about the relationship between Tuareg nationalist groups and AQIM-affiliated Islamist groups in Mali. My understanding (though it's far from my patch and I'll gladly take correction from those who know more) is that the Tuareg have substantial grievances; could the Tuareg be separated from the Islamist movements if those grievances were addressed?

Would like to get M.A.'s thoughts, if he's not too busy in the middle of it all!

[davidbfpo]

A short analysis from Raffaello Pantucci, newly based at RUSI (London):

The French assault on militant jihadists in Mali reflects a recognition in Paris that the long-brewing Islamist trouble in North Africa is something that has started to spiral out of control, and has potential to have a direct impact within France.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UPfVmaF-xEB

[davidbfpo]

A short analysis of current events in Algeria via the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21078430

First a reminder about Algeria:

Historically, it is the cradle of armed Islamist struggle in North Africa.

(Closing with) It is as if the old ghosts of the "dirty war" came back from the sands of Mali to haunt Algiers, bringing home the spectre of armed groups which it had taken the Algerian army a decade of great efforts to expel.