Ripples from Mali: events plus outside Mali

[davidbfpo]

Three succinct comments by Brian Jenkins from RAND

Part 1: The Motivations Behind the Amenas Terrorist Attack

This opens with a sharp caveat:

If the assault on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi held any lessons for government officials who must make immediate assessments, eager-to-be-interviewed experts, or critics ready to point fingers, it was this: What is initially known about a terrorist attack beyond the what, when, and where often turns out to be wrong. Many of the critical details may not be known for days, weeks, months—or ever. There will always be omissions and distortions. That lesson undoubtedly applies to the bloody terrorist attack on the Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria

Link:http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/01/the...st-attack.html

Part 2: The Dynamics of the Hostage Situation at Amenas

A thorough review, including historical aspects like:

In the 1970s, hostage situations accounted for about 20 percent of all terrorist incidents. (On the risk to hostages)... 79 percent of the hostages who died in hostage incidents were killed during a rescue operation, either by their captors or by their rescuers (Based on a 1977 RAND Study).

Link:http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/01/the...at-amenas.html

Part 3: What Does the Amenas Attack Mean for U.S. Policy in Africa?

This is very short, almost a "holding" action as France acts in Mali and the USA decides what to do next:http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/01/wha...policy-in.html

There is an very different point of view in a SWJ Blog piece today 'The Amenas Siege and the Growing Hostage Problem in Africa':http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the...blem-in-africa

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

The best thing the US should do is to look beyond the Al Qaeda bogeyman.

There's a lot going in Africa that would have occurred irrespective of Libya etc.

[M-A Lagrange]

After the quick progression, comes the time for search and destroy...

Mali: the battle continues Iforas, 30 Islamists killed in the operation

Operation "Panther IV", "continues" and "progress." This was said Thursday the staff of the French army. Monday started, this operation is to dislodge the Islamists in the region of the Adrar des Iforas in north-eastern Mali. "This is not just a progression, it is also quite favorable search this area is that people can hide. Should therefore avoid exceeding the terrorist positions and have people in the back, it is therefore a thorough enough search, "said the spokesman of the General Staff, Colonel Thierry Burkhard, at the weekly press briefing of defense.

"It is estimated that twenty terrorists were neutralized in the first place attachment" on Tuesday, in which Harold died Legionnaire Vormezeele. Wednesday, a little further east, "a little less than a dozen terrorists" have in turn been announced Thierry Burkhard, bringing the death toll on the side of jihadist thirty dead.

The previous count, announced Wednesday by Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was 25 Islamists killed. Several ammunition depots were also destroyed, according to the staff. A wide Mali entire Staff announcement "about 200 sorties" from Thursday, February 14, with "sixty" carried about by hunters, although they are not necessarily made of keystrokes, at we said.

A "ten goals" have been destroyed by air strikes, mainly carried out by fighters but also some by helicopter, according to Colonel Burkhard. These "targets" were mainly in the region of the Adrar des Ifoghas but also in the region Bourem. These are "half" of logistics sites that have been destroyed, but also "an armored reconnaissance and four pick-up," he said. Weapons caches were discovered and several rocket-propelled vehicles were recovered.

En savoir plus sur http://www.atlantico.fr/pepites/mali...YMbxZpOL1EF.99

[davidbfpo]

Marc,

I look forward to the elucidation of:

....several rocket-propelled vehicles were recovered.

Yes I know it probably means somthing else. Certain interests will welcome the 'rocket propelled vehicles gap'.

[M-A Lagrange]

Marc,

I look forward to the elucidation of:

Yes I know it probably means somthing else. Certain interests will welcome the 'rocket propelled vehicles gap'.

OK, the original was: several vehicles equiped with rocket launchers.
The beauty of google...

[jmm99]

The Ontos ...



Alas, there has been an Ontos Gap since 1969.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Michael Wills gives some context in a short blog:http://www.hurstpublishers.com/islam...saharan-sahel/

The surge in international interest in the Saharan Sahel region of Africa following the French-led intervention in Mali and especially the attack on the In Amenas gas facility in southern Algeria by armed Islamists has drawn attention to the links between these incidents and the conflict in Algeria in the 1990s.

As for AQIM, before Al Amenas:

nothing could disguise the fact that AQIM was a shadow of its Algerian forebears.