Ripples from Mali: events plus outside Mali

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja asked:

Have you noticed that Boko Haram has been bit quiet over the past few months? It could be that the jihadis have moved over to Mali, Nigerian security is more effective or a bit of both.

No I hadn't, but unless it is an outrage Nigeria rarely gets a mention here, nor do i search for updates. There was a Tweet today that the FT had an article making that suggestion - militants had gone to Mali - but I am unable to identify the report.

Whatever happens, if Mali proves too hot to handle, they'll hop over to Niger and yes, Nigeria. Nigeria is the major prize - and it keeps me worried.

I am aware that African borders are to say the least porous, even more so in this region. Defeated, injured and deserting militants may appear, but they may also have "had enough".

Strategically Nigeria is far more important that Mali or 'Sahelistan'; just Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan. That does not mean those involved in decision-making stand back beforehand. I do find the AU and other African nations welcome for the French action useful, but double-edged as it enables Africa to let others - France plus - do the "heavy lifting".

Will it be possible for the French and ECOWAS to "destroy" all the jihadis - I doubt it. They will have a large expanse of poorly governed space to ply their trade.

Granted, the French could control Bamako, Niamey and the major towns, but what about the rest of this space?

The jihadis can be destroyed as an effective threat if they stay together and do not hide amongst the people - in the settled parts of Mali, i.e. along the river. Once they leave for the "outback" and go silent that is when pursuing them and killing them will get hard - for any force. Incidentally I do not see ECOWAS going into the "outback". There are IMHO options to degrade the jihadi threat in the "outback", notably over access to fuel and water. Jihadis will not walk around, even if feasible in the environment.

In the end the French and other have bought or could buy time for Mali to reform, not just training the military.

[KingJaja]

David,

Thanks for your response, but it is the "combat experience" those guys get from Mali that worries me.

OTOH, there's an interesting article in the Hindu: http://www.thehindu.com/news/interna...cle4305099.ece

On Thursday, January 10, a public bus operated by the Sonef transport company arrived on the outskirts of Konna, a small town 700 km north of Bamako, the capital of Mali.

It was market day in Konna, and soldiers at the checkpoint on the Konna-Gao road waved the bus through. At the next checkpoint at the entry to the town, soldiers clambered into the bus for a routine security check when the passengers gunned them down. Heavily armed Islamist rebels poured out of the bus, destroying the checkpoint as more fighters arrived in a convoy of jeeps and pickup trucks and fanned out across the town.

[davidbfpo]

The kidnapping operation in southern Algeria continues to develop; now it appears that a new 'spin off" AQIM group is responsible, they have taken over forty Western hostages and are holding them within a natural gas facility. Yet to read a good summary; partly due to the isolated location and Algeria's ability to disconnect communication links.

The Arabist blog has a good overview of the French action and the likely regional 'ripples'. It ends with:

The main takeaway for the Maghreb – it’s important to remember that the Sahara is very big and population centers in the Maghreb are very far removed from what’s taking place in Mali. To be sure, there are shared sympathies, but each of these will manifest differently in the different Maghreb countries.

Link:http://www.arabist.net/blog/2013/1/1...e-maghreb.html

[KingJaja]

David,

I don't think any serious analyst should be talking about the Maghreb.

The big population centers of the Maghreb may be far removed from Mali, but what about the large population centers of Nigeria?

Unlike Northern Mali, Northern Nigeria is not arid or flat. Unlike Southern Mali, Northern Nigeria has practiced a more austere, rigid form of Islam for a couple of centuries.

I want you to consider this: there are at least 70 million people in Northern Nigeria, 9 million street kids (Almajiri) and extremely porous borders.

What will the fall out from Mali be? The French, ECOWAS and drones cannot prevent militants from sneaking in and out of Nigeria/Niger/Mali and AQIM/Boko Haram will be extremely short sighted if they don't seize the opportunity to expand operations in Nigeria.

There are many factors that would make Islamic militants popular a few are the heavy handedness of security operatives & anger at the corruption of local administrators.

I can see it happening, this could be worse than Pakistan/Afghanistan. Unlike Af/Pak, the Sahel does not have a combination of India, Russia, China and yes, Iran to prevent the contagion from spreading. The only semi-competent military is the Nigerian Army - and the Nigerian Army isn't half as competent as the Pakistani Army.

So I guess we've opened Pandora's box.

[KingJaja]

The map of West Africa shows the proximity of Northern Mali to Chad & Northern Nigeria.