SOFA in Afghanistan?

[davidbfpo]

David,

In your reading did you come across anything on the relationship between numbers of troops post 2014 and planned elections? What can be the status of any agreement in that background?

Thanks to a FP mailing I can cite what COMISAF said in an interview with WSJ (behind a pay wall):

...Gen. John Allen is calling for a "substantial military presence" in Afghanistan through next year's fighting season.... "We'd like to maintain our campaign so we're as pervasive in our touch this fighting season, because this fighting season Afghans are going to be moving into the lead operationally... We'd like to be with them through the fighting season and then you'd see our numbers come down and then stabilize across the election."

There are about 66,000 American troops in Afghanistan now, and the White House has not announced a withdrawal "slope" yet. But the command is expected to want as much of that force as possible for the last leg of the war in Afghanistan.

Allen is arguing for as robust a presence as possible, citing the lessons learned from the Soviets years ago. Allen: "What we've sought to do is learn from the post-Soviet experience.... It was as the Soviet Union began to come apart, when the advisers first were withdrawn and...when the resources were ultimately withdrawn, that's when we first began to see that [Afghan security] force polarize along ethnic and tribal lines and then everything began to come apart."

Fascinating to see him cite the lessons of the Soviet exit (which is a later part of a SWC thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9483 ).

[davidbfpo]

President Karzai has been interviewed by two UK media outlets and amidst his remarks:

Zero option would be a failure, not success...We wish to have that utopian state of mind, that's the ideal. Why wouldn't I – or why wouldn't any citizen of a country – want no troops on our side? ......Afghanistan needs to rebuild itself … For that we need the presence of the international community with us, our allies.

He makes some remarks about the UK and then US role in Helmand, that are simply amazing:

The question is why do we have Taliban controlling these areas now, when two years ago I had control of Helmand … we had girls in schools and only 160 foreign troops. Factually, what I said then was true, and it remains true today. In 2002 through 2006, (Helmand) Afghanistan had a lot better security. When we had our own presence there, with very little foreign troops, schools were open in Helmand and life was more secure.....But I am not going to blame, and it should not be seen as such. I don't want to be interpreted as saying that the arrival of foreign troops brought less security or worsened security for us. Whatever happened was the past, and now we are looking forward to the future.

Thank you Mr President!

[MSG Proctor]

David, I read that interview last night and was impressed by the intimations that there might actually be a SOFA and a continued international presence in Afghanistan. Not sure how much of a power broker he will be after elections in 2014 or how the elections will affect the need for a SOFA, but my takeaway is that Karzai seems committed that ISAF is a good garauntor of security for the short term, maybe even longer.

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo article on how large the US presence maybe. Nothing startling and no mention of a SOFA. Opens with:

The Pentagon is pushing a plan that would keep about 8,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan once the NATO military mission there ends in 2014 but significantly shrink the contingent over the following two years

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...adb_story.html

[davidbfpo]

Not sure whether this decision by GIRoA is unprecedented, but it does indicate achieving a SOFA maybe difficult:

The Afghan president has ordered US special forces to leave Wardak province within two weeks. The decision was being taken due to allegations of disappearances and torture by Afghans considered to be part of US special forces, said a spokesman for Hamid Karzai.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21566295 and a longer NYT article:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/25/wo...pagewanted=all

[Madhu]

....doesn't think there will be a SOFA.

Some naif here in the US probably still believes that Karzai's government will give the US legal immunity. Wanna bet?

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_s...65802html.html

[davidbfpo]

The AAN dissects what happened in Wardak Province:http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index...er_share=6dc9b

Elsewhere I read the majority group in Wardak are Hazara and it is the Pashtun minority who are the victims. Alas I cannot recall where I read this, maybe I'm dreaming! Nothing is ever simple.