SOFA in Afghanistan?

[davidbfpo]

President Karzai has been interviewed by two UK media outlets and amidst his remarks:

Zero option would be a failure, not success...We wish to have that utopian state of mind, that's the ideal. Why wouldn't I – or why wouldn't any citizen of a country – want no troops on our side? ......Afghanistan needs to rebuild itself … For that we need the presence of the international community with us, our allies.

He makes some remarks about the UK and then US role in Helmand, that are simply amazing:

The question is why do we have Taliban controlling these areas now, when two years ago I had control of Helmand … we had girls in schools and only 160 foreign troops. Factually, what I said then was true, and it remains true today. In 2002 through 2006, (Helmand) Afghanistan had a lot better security. When we had our own presence there, with very little foreign troops, schools were open in Helmand and life was more secure.....But I am not going to blame, and it should not be seen as such. I don't want to be interpreted as saying that the arrival of foreign troops brought less security or worsened security for us. Whatever happened was the past, and now we are looking forward to the future.

Thank you Mr President!

[MSG Proctor]

David, I read that interview last night and was impressed by the intimations that there might actually be a SOFA and a continued international presence in Afghanistan. Not sure how much of a power broker he will be after elections in 2014 or how the elections will affect the need for a SOFA, but my takeaway is that Karzai seems committed that ISAF is a good garauntor of security for the short term, maybe even longer.

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo article on how large the US presence maybe. Nothing startling and no mention of a SOFA. Opens with:

The Pentagon is pushing a plan that would keep about 8,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan once the NATO military mission there ends in 2014 but significantly shrink the contingent over the following two years

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...adb_story.html

[davidbfpo]

Not sure whether this decision by GIRoA is unprecedented, but it does indicate achieving a SOFA maybe difficult:

The Afghan president has ordered US special forces to leave Wardak province within two weeks. The decision was being taken due to allegations of disappearances and torture by Afghans considered to be part of US special forces, said a spokesman for Hamid Karzai.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21566295 and a longer NYT article:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/25/wo...pagewanted=all

[Madhu]

....doesn't think there will be a SOFA.

Some naif here in the US probably still believes that Karzai's government will give the US legal immunity. Wanna bet?

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_s...65802html.html

[davidbfpo]

The AAN dissects what happened in Wardak Province:http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index...er_share=6dc9b

Elsewhere I read the majority group in Wardak are Hazara and it is the Pashtun minority who are the victims. Alas I cannot recall where I read this, maybe I'm dreaming! Nothing is ever simple.

[davidbfpo]

If you can’t beat them, cheat them. And that is what the Taliban is currently doing to make sure special operations forces aren’t impeding their significantly important operations in Wardak. With the majority of NATO forces on the verge of being pulled out of Afghanistan, the only obstacle remaining will be special operations forces that are poised to remain in the country even after most U.S. forces return home.

This is the conclusion reached by:http://sofrep.com/17610/sof-running-amok-in-wardak/

That sofa is getting very uncomfortable, maybe even unlikely.