Background on AQIM: a growing threat?

[M-A Lagrange]

This comes just after Canada expressed their fear of a "new Iraq or Afghanistan" in Mali to justify not sending troops.
IMHO this (the document + Canada position + that particular discussion) translate the feeling some political deciders may have: after 2 invasions that turned to be half victories at best they are very much affraid to engage their troops in an another military adventure. In that perspective, AQ reached one of its objectives: terrorise governments.

On the other hand, what Bob is saying makes a lot of sens:

There are different levels of drawing in, if the French keep their intervention short and then the West conducts small scale low visibility special operations it will be affordable and ultimately result in their defeat. If we attempt another major stability operation we'll be playing into their game.

But I believe many in the field and at the flag level are aware of that choice.

[J Wolfsberger]

By all means, let's adopt the George Armstrong Custer Strategy:

1. Disregard available intelligence.
2. Disparage the opponents capabilities.
3. Adopt a tactically (and in this case, strategically) inferior position.
4. Victory!

Look how well it worked for him!

Because, it could be a fraud. There's no evidence whatsoever that it is, but we all know how clever those intelligence agencies are at making completely undetectably fraudulent documents that read exactly as though they were written by the people they want us to think wrote them. They're even so devilishly clever they have the documents written saying exactly the same things as the purported authors would say!

Probably the same group that Bush, Chaney and Haliburton used to plan 09/11.

</sarc>

[J Wolfsberger]

Somebody has learned. A lot. I recall discussion of this from the early 2000s - as this conflict progressed, the stupid would get weeded out and Al Qaeda would become more effective, and more dangerous. These fragments indicate that at least one person in their senior leadership has gained some knowledge about effective social change.