The Arab Spring (a partial collection)

**davidbfpo** · 04-26-2016

The 'Arab Spring' seems almost light years away and as there is no SWC thread on the secret police / secret intelligence or in Arabic the Mukhabarat, this new article will sit here. The author is Brynjar Lia, professor of Middle East Studies at the Department of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages.

Stability is assured, well the author is adamant - no. From the conclusion:

The idea that Arab dictators may help secure long-term stability in the Middle East after the “failure” of the Arab Spring is a dangerous fallacy. States ruled by dictators are almost by definition loose cannons on deck....The assumption that the rules of the game have somehow changed after the Arab Spring and the rise of ISIS and that Arab autocrats have now become our best choice at a time of uncertainty and crisis ignores the lessons of history.

Link:https://newmeast.wordpress.com/2016/...ced-nostalgia/

**CrowBat** · 04-27-2016

Well, if taking a look at Egypt, one can't but agree with author.

Sissi is meanwhile faithfuly following Mubarak's pad: he managed to turn most of the country against him, and is filling prisons with thousands of people demonstrating against him. Only immense presence of the army, police and (regime-) 'security' forces - which blocked access to all major squares and sights in Egypt - prevented mass demonstrations for the Sinai Liberation Day (25 April).

Wherever one asks, everybody there is purchasing arms and ammo - and there's no end of flood of these from Libya.

Rumours are flying that the SCAF (top army council) is unhappy with Sisi, and that even his most ardent supporters are finding it hard to back his decisions. If only a part of that is correct, his days are de-facto numbered.

Bottom line, contrary to so many expectations, nobody there thinks his rule is something like a stabilizing factor for Egypt, and even less so that he could keep himself in power in this fashion 'forever'... It's just taking time for steam to build up.

For the rest, well, 'remember Mubarak'.