Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
...the US exercises that the North finds so offensive...
Bold assumption that DPRK finds the exercises offensive. The case could be made that the DPRK welcomes these excuses for military action.

The theme lately seems to be "avoid reunification at all costs". Note the failure of the Kaesung Industrial Complex, and how the most recent events derailed a scheduled reunification talk. The appearance is that the North is pursuing status quo, albeit an earlier status quo with more generous food shipments from the South. But it makes a twisted kind of sense.

What advantage is there for regime members in reunification? Who will guarantee their status, quality of life, personal security, and financial incentives? More important, who will guarantee KJI's steady stream of comfort girls?

But who in this game would benefit from reunification?
The U.S. would most likely lose basing (greatly diminished basing as the very least) in the region, and our foothold in the region.

China would lose the buffer between democracy and the middle kingdom, and would run what is likely to be an unacceptable risk of disturbing the harmony of the ethnic Koreans in China.

Japan would see both military and economic threats in the long term from a unified Korea.

South Korea would bear the brunt of rehabilitating an environmentally, socially, and economically devastated region.

Russia is the only player who might be open to reunification, simply to reduce the U.S. presense in the Pacific Rim, but runs risk to their interests in the region from branches and sequels of reunification (various possibilities for war, shifting economic blocks, etc).

So the big question is "What does DPRK really get out of this?"
-Shifting fishing in the region, now that the fishing villages on those islands have been relocated, although this might benefit China more.
-Attention. ("I'm such a big player now! Look how upset I got the U.S.")
-Leverage in the next round of food begging/barginning ("Feed us or we'll do this again!")

-Maybe, and this is the long-shot, Tom Clancy scenario; U.S. attention drawn away from a DPRK ally like Iran or Syria...