Bill:
The comment you are referring to about 1994 was not mine but is from "ganulv" above (I was there in 1994 and I remember it sure seemed like more than a blip). In my blog at the link I offer some thoughts on how the regime might off ramp this situation and achieve objectives that support the regime's strategy and policies and what its propaganda narrative might be. I fully agree that no one can know for sure what is going on inside the regime and what they are really thinking but their patterns of actions are revealing and provide at least some clues.
V/R
Dave