North Korea: 2012-2016

[Dayuhan]

Secondly just what role China (PRC) will play is - to me - unclear. Is North Korea best described as a "sick, starving child (or neighbour) with a dangerous military" or "a neighbour who is useful, with a hereditary ruling family"?

A little bit of both... though while North Korea may have its uses to the Chinese, it is also unpredictable and an be a loose cannon.

Certainly there are all manner of possible implications, but there's little the West can do beyond watching, waiting, and reacting to events as they emerge. The Chinese have presumably cultivated contacts in the North Korean military and may have more influence, though it's hard to say how much they actually can do.

[nightowl]

It is a pretty fascinating development to be sure and also a worrying one. The thing that worries me more then anything is that the most likely scenario for renewed hostilities doesn't involve a premeditated North Korean attack but, instead, a South Korean overreaction to a North Korean provocation along the lines of the sinking of the Cheonan or the shelling of YPO Island last Winter. The biggest issue, IMO, with the ROK Armed forces and government was that they have never established a clear "line" on what is an acceptable amount of military provocation from the North. The North only knows that the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of YPO did NOT cause a war... South Korea has said that they will retaliate much more aggressively in the event of another YPO style incident... but do the North Korean's know that for sure? Do even we know that for sure?

Kim Jong Il, as one of those links put it, was a "known unknown." While volatile, it was generally known that he would use the threat of small scale military actions as a counter-weight to try and win North Korea food aid and hard currency. He seemed to get the picture after YPO and did not launch another provocation... but is that because he legitimately heeded South Korean warnings or just because he was waiting for a better opportunity? Does Kim Jong Un have a similar mindset?

Kim Jong Un, on the other hand, is an "unknown unknown." With his European education and background does he harbor a more cooperative view towards the West? His education and experience surely makes him more then aware of the disparity between North Korean economic conditions and those of the rest of the world... Does he want to close that gap? Does the answer to either of those questions even matter if North Korea's military leadership won't allow him to consolidate power? If the military leadership doesn't allow him to consolidate power... then who, really, is in charge in North Korea? What is their agenda?

At the end of the day there's just too many questions and not enough hard answers yet. I have a feeling that the next six months might see some interesting events in North Korea.