North Korea: 2012-2016

[Van]

"The North Korean regime is on alert after signs of public unrest mainly in North Pyongyan Province," Later in the same article, there are references to the influence of the "Jasmine Revolutions" in North Korea.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...022401282.html

OK, The source is very biased, but...

Hypothetically, (and yes, it is unlikely, but it deserves a degree of consideration) the current North Korean regime falls, and the military district commanders accept South Korean assistance; then what?

What degree of popular resistance is to South Korean/U.S. assistance is likely?

Who is likely to organize the resistance? Or will it be more of a "viral" resistance?

How about a situation where some district commanders accept South Korea's authority and other don't? What if the ones that don't accept the intervention get backing from China or Russia? Which ones are likely to accept the South, which are likely to go with Russia or China? Which might seek autonomy? Why?

Will China tolerate the humanitarian efforts to stabilize the tattered shreds of the North or will they stage their own intervention? Will there be a race for Pyongyang, like the race between the Soviets and the Allies after WW II for control of the remains of Germany? What might make a "natural" demarcation?

How about the likely refuge flow into China? And the refuge flow south?

Will Japan assist in a humanitarian effort? Should they? How tolerant would South Korea be of this assistance? (I've heard it said by Koreans that the only thing that could unify North and South Korea would be the desire to attack Japan.)

How about Russia?

Would Iran attempt to assert itself? (Look at the relationship between North Korea and Iran, there may be reasons for this sequel:Official: Iran, NKorea are in 'one trench'.) What other 'non-regional' players might try to intervene?

(Possibly the most important question) What other questions need to be asked?

Yes, it is a wild card scenario; check, I get it. But it is not impossible (just profoundly unlikely, sort of like the idea of a bunch of third world scumbags with bad personal hygiene changing the New York City skyline... So unlikely it would have gotten you thrown out of the Pentagon or CIA, on 10 September, 2001). Let's move past that and really think critically about this scenario.

Van

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