I don't think your Kosovo example supports your assertion. First, the prospect for civil war there was well known - indeed long before 1990. You can google up a prescient CIA analysis on Yugoslavian reforms in 1970.
Secondly, the "trigger" in your example was rebellion and civil war. I think if that were to occur in North Korea then the Chinese will be forced act. At that point there might be an opportunity to persuade/shame/whatever the Chinese. Then again there might not be. Personally, I'm suspicious of any claims of certainty regarding what is "obvious" when the future is involved.
Regardless, there is no such "trigger" in North Korea at present and the Chinese and others are working hard to prevent one from happening. No one really wants to deal with the consequences and so pretty much everyone is trying to push the inevitable off into the future as much as possible. Absent a trigger, AKA, a fundamental change in the status quo, I don't see your IO doing squat. Or maybe you advocate creating a trigger to force China's hand in order to provide an opening for your grand IO plan? Sounds like something Doug Feith would come up with.
Well, if your ideas, whatever they are, live up to your hype, then the US State Department will want to hire you as a consultant. Let us know how that goes.There's a limit to how much I do for free, though.
Bookmarks