View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

Voters
19. You may not vote on this poll
  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
Page 23 of 28 FirstFirst ... 132122232425 ... LastLast
Results 441 to 460 of 551

Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

  1. #441
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,343

    Default Two assessments

    Two interesting and different commentaries on current events. One by a RUSI analyst 'Viewpoint: What is driving North Korea's threats?':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21950069

    The author notes:
    ....there is little reason to suspect that it will deliver on some of its other promises, at least anytime soon.

    One reason for this is that a major audience for Kim Jong-un's tough talk is domestic. The young leader was promoted quickly through the ranks of the Korean People's Army by his late father, despite having done little to earn those qualifications. Standing up to North Korea's enemies will help Kim Jong-un consolidate his military and political power.
    The second is by a long-time British academic expert on North Korea asks 'Could a Korean Armageddon really happen?:http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfre...ageddon-happen

    Namely: are they serious? Do they mean it? Could a Korean Armageddon really happen? My one-word answer would be no. A wag at South Korea's defence ministry quipped earlier this month that "barking dogs don't bite".
    I'd forgotten the joint venture in North Korea by a South Korean company and the author notes:
    And each day dozens of South Koreans still commute from Seoul across the DMZ to supervise Northern workers at a joint venture industrial park. That is the reality on the ground. With any luck it will remain so.
    In a previous article @ Kaesong this activity has never been stopped:http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfre...known-quantity

    One wonders what China and Russia think?
    davidbfpo

  2. #442
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,343

    Default Ah, is this a bad sign @ Kaesong?

    A sketchy report on what some refer to as a key barometer of relations:
    The two countries have historically been reluctant to meddle with Kaesong, even during periods of fraught tension elsewhere. The complex has never been shut down, in its eight years of operation, and remains an important symbol for both sides. For the North, it is a sign of economic liberalisation and achievement. For the South, it is a blueprint of how the two countries might one day cooperate more fully. More than 120 South Korean companies employ over 53,000 North Koreans at Kaesong for their cheap and skilled labour.
    DPRK is restricting entry and exit to Kaesong:
    A total of 858 South Korean workers, and seven other foreigners remain on the Kaesong site and could potentially be held hostage if the situation worsens.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rial-zone.html
    davidbfpo

  3. #443
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A sketchy report on what some refer to as a key barometer of relations:

    DPRK is restricting entry and exit to Kaesong:

    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rial-zone.html
    It was heavily covered on NPR this morning in the States. I don't want to make light of the very real danger that exists every day along the DMZ, but I remember in the spring of 1994 when the US media was full of stories about how the peninsula was on the brink of war that I wrote to a friend in Seoul and asked if everything there was OK. I received a letter back a couple of weeks later that the whole situation had been a blip there.

    The young and new leader is of course a variable which was not present two decades ago.
    If you donít read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. Ė Mark Twain (attributed)

  4. #444
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Here's a scan from my bedroom window in 1980 along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) with the DMZ two clicks south of our quarters.

    The intensity of the music and BS from the loudspeakers lulled me into sleep for over a year.

    The other part of this madness was working with the UN (seconded) all the while the USG barked from far away and the music and propaganda increased with each passing day.

    It's one thing to realize that the North Korean leader is little more than an adolescent, and yet another thing for an educated American politician to play the same game while our troops are on this fragile line of defense.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  5. #445
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    The US is moving an advanced missile system to the Pacific island of Guam as a precaution following threats by North Korea, the Pentagon has said.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22021832
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  6. #446
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Here's a scan from my bedroom window in 1980 along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) with the DMZ two clicks south of our quarters.

    The intensity of the music and BS from the loudspeakers lulled me into sleep for over a year.
    Stan,

    Here it is looking from the other direction, where it (or at least this segment) is apparently the closest thing the DPRK has to a tourist attraction. Weird, but hardly the weirdest thing going on there, I guess.
    Last edited by ganulv; 04-03-2013 at 09:03 PM.
    If you donít read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. Ė Mark Twain (attributed)

  7. #447
    Council Member max161's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Alexandria, VA
    Posts
    142

    Default My thoughts on a potential offramp for Kim Jong Un

    David S. Maxwell
    "Irregular warfare is far more intellectual than a bayonet charge." T.E. Lawrence

  8. #448
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,169

    Default

    max161,

    You are one of the few people I listen to on Korea. Too many others have a year or two there and assume they're an expert and nothing new is going on. At the end of the day, we don't know what is going through the mind of Un, and all the factors driving his behavior. Nor do we know how the ROKs will respond to a potential incident. We can all speculate, some can even make educated guesses, but at the end day we're in a period of uncertainty.

    In response to this comment

    I remember in the spring of 1994 when the US media was full of stories about how the peninsula was on the brink of war that I wrote to a friend in Seoul and asked if everything there was OK. I received a letter back a couple of weeks later that the whole situation had been a blip there.
    Unless your friend was a General Officer or senior Korean politician then it was simply an observation based on the fact he or she didn't see anything pending. I suspect you could have asked that question throughout history to millions of people globally and got a similiar answer just before their nation went to war. I think that may have a couple of times to us? 7 December, 9/11...

    Of course that is one reason I think this will die down because the element of surprise appears to have slipped by, but once again I (we) don't know.

  9. #449
    Council Member max161's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Alexandria, VA
    Posts
    142

    Default

    Bill:
    The comment you are referring to about 1994 was not mine but is from "ganulv" above (I was there in 1994 and I remember it sure seemed like more than a blip). In my blog at the link I offer some thoughts on how the regime might off ramp this situation and achieve objectives that support the regime's strategy and policies and what its propaganda narrative might be. I fully agree that no one can know for sure what is going on inside the regime and what they are really thinking but their patterns of actions are revealing and provide at least some clues.
    V/R
    Dave
    David S. Maxwell
    "Irregular warfare is far more intellectual than a bayonet charge." T.E. Lawrence

  10. #450
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Unless your friend was a General Officer or senior Korean politician then it was simply an observation based on the fact he or she didn't see anything pending. I suspect you could have asked that question throughout history to millions of people globally and got a similiar answer just before their nation went to war. I think that may have a couple of times to us? 7 December, 9/11...
    He was just a life-long resident of Seoul. I've never been to Korea but the half dozen or so Korean friends I have seem to share the attitude that the War is probably never going to resume but that it might at any moment, and without warning.
    If you donít read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. Ė Mark Twain (attributed)

  11. #451
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ganulv View Post
    Stan,

    Here it is looking from the other direction, where it (or at least this segment) is apparently the closest thing the DPRK has to a tourist attraction. Weird, but hardly the weirdest thing going on there, I guess.
    Great video, Matt !
    The DMZ has attracted tourists for years, even the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders on the southern side.

    While I was there a north Korean kindergarden class came for a visit with 3-year olds spitting at us. Can't imagine what they were being taught and now can only imagine what those same kids are like as adults.

    The building filled with explosives is real. In fact, the entire MSR1 from Freedom Bridge to Seoul has huge overpasses (without roads leading anywhere) also filled with explosives. Once blown, no way of getting to the capital via armored vehicle unless you want to take a stab at driving a tank through a rice patty
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  12. #452
    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    806

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    It's one thing to realize that the North Korean leader is little more than an adolescent, and yet another thing for an educated American politician to play the same game while our troops are on this fragile line of defense.
    True.

    But what really scares me is that there don't seem to be many "educated American politician(s)." What we have instead is a surplus of highly indoctrinated, over aged, self serving adolescents.

    I'll be very surprised if this latest chest thumping by NK doesn't lead to a very bad outcome.
    John Wolfsberger, Jr.

    An unruffled person with some useful skills.

  13. #453
    Council Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    4,021

    Default Do you mean ...

    that international relations have followed the path of internet relations ?

    "Suppose you have two groups"

    Shocking - utterly shocking.

    Regards

    Mike

  14. #454
    Council Member carl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Denver on occasion
    Posts
    2,460

    Default

    It seems to me that King Kim III's ongoing bluff, if it is a bluff, will have to be called eventually. If it is not, tribute will have to be paid to this king for years and years to come. If and when the bluff is called, there is a chance very serious fighting will ensue. I don't see any way around this ultimately, either pay or risk a fight.

    A separate question. Let's say a decision is made to call. It doesn't matter what the provocation will be, there is always another one coming. Do you think it would help if sort of an open proscription list of DPRK high officials was published? It would name names and say, politely, the guys on this list are dead if a war starts. The idea would be to personalize consequences and thereby discourage aggressive behavior. The King doesn't rule unassisted after all.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  15. #455
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default We Should Bitch Slap Little Kim With A Sprint ABM!

    After Pershing Missiles I got tp play with this one as a kid to
    Zero to Mach 10 in 5 seconds!!!! with a Neutron Warhead. Little Kim needs to learn a lesson. Link to live footage of Sprint ABM test.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msXtgTVMcuA


    Here is another one good one with more detail. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vq4mWyYl2Y
    Last edited by slapout9; 04-07-2013 at 11:49 PM. Reason: stuff

  16. #456
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    3,169

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    that international relations have followed the path of internet relations ?

    "Suppose you have two groups"

    Shocking - utterly shocking.

    Regards

    Mike
    This is a classic, thanks for posting.

  17. #457
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default US Starts To Give In To North Korea

    Link to article on US delays Missile test amid so called tensions with North Korea. This is a prime example of how America is in decline and no longer respected in the world. We yield to mass murders and leave our allies and friends in suspense about our true intentions as far as it regards our political will to actually honor our defense treaties. We are facing the greatest crisis of leadership I have ever seen in my lifetime for this country. Think Nixon would have put up with this worst haircut ever kinda guy.....I Don't think so.

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013...rth-korea?lite

  18. #458
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    50

    Default

    Ive got some local context given to me and some general thoughts.

    A very good friend of mine is part of a wealthy and well connected korean family living in seoul. They have been moving money out of the country this time which is something they have never done before. they have also prepared plans to leave, which is also new.

    As far as general thoughts. If we are attacked I believe we will be caught flat footed. Its classic boy who cried wolf and if they act now, it will be after the public has determined thats its only another show.


    How many times has the US and ROKs taken a hit and done nothing? mini subs, arty fire, sunken ships, DPRK agents and sympathizers in the south. They have been allowed to take such action with impunity because have had no meaningful response. They may perceive this as batting 100%, and they may be right.

    Didn't Saddam believe we would not intervene in kuwait because 1. we told him kuwait wasn't an american concern 2. The 16 some-odd UN resolutions that did nothing militarily and had no teeth and 3. He believed the US military risk avers and afraid of casualties

    Its entirely possible in my eyes that kim jong un sees the US and the ROKs in a similar light.

  19. #459
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,343

    Default North Korea complicates the long-term picture

    An interview with a SME, mainly on the nuclear proliferation aspects:http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/f...g-term-picture
    davidbfpo

  20. #460
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default How The Korean War Might Play Out

    CNN does an analysis of how a real war could play out according to Retired US Army Brigadier General James "Spyder" Marks.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qPiT_x9NG4

Similar Threads

  1. North Korea 2017 onwards
    By AdamG in forum Asia-Pacific
    Replies: 158
    Last Post: 07-08-2019, 01:56 PM
  2. Replies: 24
    Last Post: 02-11-2018, 07:25 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •