North Korean State Collaspe-The next Small War?
This has been a topic constantly discussed since Kim-Jong-Il departed this world for that great land of cognac, women, and Hollywood movies in the sky about a week ago. However, with Kim’s passing the question of whether the DPRK that he and the ruling clique has presided over with an iron fist will be able to stand up? Despite what some analysts in the media say about the unlikelihood of the DPRK collapsing, I find that at least on paper the possibility is very likely.
North Korea is a nation that ranks in the bottom 5 or so among states in the world in terms overall quality of life and livability for its citizen’s, alongside
places like Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Congo . As large sections of the North Korean population are starving and a min of upwards of 1 million+ people have died in a famine that has plagued the country since the mid-1990. The famine was brought on by a mixture of the collapse of the North’s patron power the USSR at the beginning of that decade, along with other Warsaw Pact governments that the Kim regime had close relationships with, a strong reluctance to reform on the part of the DPRK’s govt, and just general incompetence & corruption.
Since then the North’s infrastructure, health, education & welfare system has completely ceased to exist. The DPRK also basically has economy or exports to speak of except selling weapons & technology to other rogue states like Iran and Syria (including information & assets used to create WMD). Other illicit exports of the North include the manufacturing and distribution of drugs to overseas markets like meth and heroin, along with other activities like counterfeiting currency. For instance, North Korean diplomats overseas basically function as moneymakers for the regime, and many have been caught dealing drugs, knockoff goods, or in automobile theft rings.
North Korea also ranks at the top as the world’s most oppressive state, with the Kim family regime actually making into the totalitarian rankings in history alongside such governments like Nazi Germany, Stalinist Soviet Union, and Maoist China. The North Korean regime runs a highly complex, massive, and sophisticated secret police network that has reach both inside and outside the country that systematically targets dissidents with a wide variety of methods. In North Korea one can be thrown in prison or even killed for owning something(sometimes the individual’s extended family as well) like a cell phone , or listening to foreign music.
Additionally, the DPRK runs a sizeable system of labor and concentration camps where those imprisoned are held under extremely harsh conditions, denied of adequate food, shelter, and clothing and are virtually worked to death or eventually killed over by camp guards. Not to mention running a cult of personality system in which the Kim family leaders like Kim Jong-Il, his son, and his father are revered as a almighty Gods. All while resisting even economic reforms like those seen in neighboring China.
Like mentioned above the DPRK government spends virtually all resources and money the country has on the armed forces under the “Songun” or strong military policy or luxuries for the Kim Family and related elite, at the expense of the rest of society. The North Korean government by some estimates is reputed to spend something like 50+% of its budget on the military. The DPRK has also pursued a very well-known WMD program over the year that includes a modest nuclear arsenal since 2006 and a large chemical and biological program as well.
With all of this being said, compared to the South of Korea the North obviously doesn’t register on the charts. The ROK has a stable democratic political system, which has existed in full for the past 20 or so years and is relatively uncorrupt overall. Individuals can openly criticize, the government, its leaders, and more without fear of imprisonment. The South’s economy is advanced and state of the art and delivers a wide range of services and opportunities to its citizens, has a very high development rate, along with the fact that numerous South Korean conglomerates like Hyundai, KIA, and other has made the country a major exporting power. South Korean society also provides first world standards of living for its population, with the nation’s education and infrastructure system ranking amongst the best in the world, even surpassing western countries like the US, UK, and France in these areas.
South Korea has also become a major regional military power in recent years possessing a large force that is regarded as one of the most professional and best equipped in the world. It has been estimated by some that if North Korea were to attack the South now and days the DPRK would be handily defeated even without US assistance.
Now after my lengthy look at North Korea, does anyone else here think that the DPRK could completely collapse one day in the coming years. I mean given when compared to every other country in Asia, esp it’s geographical and cultural counterpart South Korea and increasingly how many Northerner’s are becoming aware of how well off the former is I think it’s certainly possible at least on paper.
I know people on here who are more familiar then I know in terms of what plans there are to deal with the collapse of the DPRK etc. However, from a foreign & defense policy standpoint I figure that since the war in Iraq has ended, this has to be one of the top priorities and in South Korean circles has been mentioned as something that is not if but when. Spefically, since the North has a huge( if antiquted) military and has WMDS too. And especially, since the North appears to far gone to actually reform at this point.
If there are any thoughts on North Korean state collaspe I would like to hear them.
Originally Posted by davidbfpo
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