View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

Voters
19. You may not vote on this poll
  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
Page 8 of 28 FirstFirst ... 67891018 ... LastLast
Results 141 to 160 of 551

Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

  1. #141
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    a guarantee. That too matters. Even if you were anywhere near correct, most of them are smart enough not to make a standing broad jump at what could very likely be an erroneous conclusion...

    Adding to the wise words from Rex Brynen, he's totally correct -- but then, no one in this case knows what the original plan really was. All most of us know is what was publicly announced. That often, even for the US, is not what's really intended. Does suck in the unthinking quite often...

    Neat thing about being old is that I've seen dozens if not hundreds of would be prognosticators and pundidiots state categorically what the US did or did not do -- and they've most always been proven wrong. I've also read about the decline and fall of the US so many times that now I just smile. As Humphrey Bogart said, "Here's laughing at you, Kid..."
    Yes Ken I understand that no one wants to see their country humiliated internationally... but don't let that blind you from the truth.

    The problem is that the cause of the humiliation was gross incompetence. So don't go after the messenger... go after the idiots who thought China (which does not have an aircraft carrier yet) is going to allow the US sail one of theirs right into the Yellow Sea and thumb its nose at China.

    I am (for what it is worth) a stalwart supporter of the US, Israel and the UK but out here in the colonies the list of supporters is growing shorter by the day... through this sort of thing from the US and the blockade cock-up of the Israelis win you no friends out here.

    In these cases it is not the US and Israeli policies that are so repugnant but the incompetence as mentioned.

    While knee jerk reaction is often "we don't care what anyone thinks" it is obvious that the American people do care what the world thinks of them. The answer is quite simple don't make it so hard for people to be a friend of the US.

  2. #142
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Very true. I had a crawl through the regional English language press just to see what's being said. Nobody seemed to sense a humiliating US retreat, though there's a good deal of comment on what's perceived as an unusually sensitive reaction from Beijing (similar exercises were held not long ago without much fuss). The general consensus is that Beijing's focus is on the domestic audience, which is a good deal more restive than most Westerners realize. Playing the nationalist card and trying to whip up anger at an outside power is of course a long-standing tactic for distracting attention from domestic issues.

    I don't see any point in playing into this strategy by upping the ante and giving them something to rant about, and the move that was taken seems - and seems regionally perceived as - a fairly nonchalant shrugoff - it's about North Korea, not about China, and if it's going to be an issue we'll take it elsewhere, no big deal. Given the desire to maintain a focus on North Korea, there's nothing to be gained by creating issues with China, and it really doesn't warrant a hysterical response.
    10 out of 10 for refusing to see it was nothing short of a humiliating climb down by the US/ROK.

  3. #143
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    1,457

    Default

    JMA,

    Please define "humilitating climb down." If this minor accomodation constitutes a "humiliation" then it seems to me virtually any accomodation (whether real or perceived) is a "humiliation" which would seem to render the term useless.

    Personally, I tend to put the bar pretty high where humiliation is concerned and I think this country has a lot more self-esteem than an insecure teenager. Calling small slights or accomodations "humiliations" is not a sign of strength - quite the opposite.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

  4. #144
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Talking You miscontrue -- or misstate -- so much that you're quite humorous.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Yes Ken I understand that no one wants to see their country humiliated internationally... but don't let that blind you from the truth.
    In reverse order, never has. The US constantly and quite deliberately humiliates itself internationally in a futile attempt to show the World we're the good guys. We aren't, really but we're fairly decent and generally do more good than harm. The humility act really does us few favors but we continually do it; it gets misunderstood and people think we're even dumber than we are. Not a big thing, as I said, I've watched it for a good many years.
    The problem is that the cause of the humiliation was gross incompetence. So don't go after the messenger... go after the idiots who thought China (which does not have an aircraft carrier yet) is going to allow the US sail one of theirs right into the Yellow Sea and thumb its nose at China.
    Let me count the ways...

    In order, you do not know if it was gross incompetence or a deliberate ploy, you do not know if the initial plan was announced by 'A' and then 'B' overruled him or her -- in short, your allegation is, yet again, ill informed and an assumption that since it was not done as you like to think you'd do it, it was incompetent or incorrect. Sorry, no prize for that leap.

    I'm not "going after the messenger" -- presuming you consider yourself the messenger -- merely pointing out the message, as are so many, is short sighted and possibly erroneous. Nor do I believe the rest of that paragraph is correct, though I certainly don't know, anymore than do you, so there's no sense in either of us even acting like we're 'going after' anyone.

    Lastly, as Entropy said above, we've got said bit more pizazz than to worry about diplomatic turnarounds -- if indeed that's what it was; we'll see. I'd have used self confidence rather than self esteem but the principle is the same. Nations are not people and one should IMO avoid trying to talk about them as if they were human but they do have national attributes and one of ours is trying to not offend just to be offensive. You might consider that...
    In these cases it is not the US and Israeli policies that are so repugnant but the incompetence as mentioned.
    Ah, yes. Being a gentleman (on occasion) I'll forego asking about events of the last 30 plus years in your neck of the woods; I'll merely point out that no one, no nation, is error free.
    While knee jerk reaction is often "we don't care what anyone thinks" it is obvious that the American people do care what the world thinks of them. The answer is quite simple don't make it so hard for people to be a friend of the US.
    Oh, you got one right!!! Yep, thus my comment above that we often humiliate ourselves in efforts to win friends and influence people. Doesn't usually work; the big clumsy and seemingly inartful guy is always going to be a target for the gibes of the smaller and more apparently agile. The big guy just has to take it and keep smiling or he gets labeled a bully. That works until one the gibers gets stupid and carried away, overdoes it and then gets smacked. Since the big guy is clumsy , his smack may go awry, they often do but the last thing you want to do is get him really upset and let him catch you in one of these.

    Nope, most Americans do care. Having been around the world in both directions a few times and having learned that most others do not care, I tend to not worry about it either way. I do smile when those others scream about American ineptitude and greed out of one side of their mouth, totally fail to understand Americans (or the domestic political dynamic that impacts what said Americans do) in their brains and scream "What are the Americans going to do to fix this?" from the other side of their mouth...

  5. #145
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
    JMA,

    Please define "humilitating climb down." If this minor accomodation constitutes a "humiliation" then it seems to me virtually any accomodation (whether real or perceived) is a "humiliation" which would seem to render the term useless.

    Personally, I tend to put the bar pretty high where humiliation is concerned and I think this country has a lot more self-esteem than an insecure teenager. Calling small slights or accomodations "humiliations" is not a sign of strength - quite the opposite.
    I suggest it is important to face the truth. I saw this coming as did many people from Mickey Mouse countries, strange that so few from the US did.

    It started here:

    The US will conduct joint naval exercises with South Korea in the Yellow Sea, the Pentagon announced tonight as the two countries revealed measures to increase pressure on North Korea over a torpedo attack which sank a Southern warship.
    Note: It is clearly stated it will take place in the Yellow Sea.

    Then this happened:

    China expressed its opposition to US-South Korean military drills at the Yellow Sea, which is a sea stripe between China and the Korean Peninsula, and expressed "deep concern" over the war games starting on Sunday.

    "We sternly oppose activities that affect China's security by foreign military vessels or aircraft at the Yellow Sea or in China's offshore waters," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Wednesday in a statement.

    As a result it ended like this:

    Code-named 'Invincible Spirit', the military drill took place over five days off Ullengdo Island, in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), and was completed on 28 July.
    Note: the exercise was moved to the other side of the peninsula into the Sea of Japan as demanded by China.

    That is a humiliating climb down if there ever was one.

  6. #146
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    That is a humiliating climb down if there ever was one.
    Why?

  7. #147
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Why?
    Ah, you just say that because you're one of those humiliatingclimbdownists...
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  8. #148
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default or, as Wilf or Gian would say

    humiliatingclimbdownistas...

    "Ah, I kill me..."

    The number of people who do not understand that hyperbole, posturing and backtrack are Diplomacy in the current era never cease to surprise me...

  9. #149
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Montreal
    Posts
    1,602

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    humiliatingclimbdownistas...

    "Ah, I kill me...".
    I almost lost a mouthful of coffee over that. I bow to the master
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  10. #150
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    1,457

    Default

    I guess I'm a "humiliatingclimbdowntra" then
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

  11. #151
    Council Member reed11b's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Olympia WA
    Posts
    531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    humiliatingclimbdownistas...

    "Ah, I kill me..."

    The number of people who do not understand that hyperbole, posturing and backtrack are Diplomacy in the current era never cease to surprise me...
    You sir, owe me a new keyboard.
    Reed
    Quote Originally Posted by sapperfitz82 View Post
    This truly is the bike helmet generation.

  12. #152
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Exclamation Ooops...

    Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
    I guess I'm a "humiliatingclimbdowntra" then
    'Humiliatingclimbdowntro' is the masculine -- so that's more appropriate. Though you can of course use the appellation of your choice.

    Avoid extraneous letters; a humiliatingclimbdowntroll is, of course, a tiny, fat, red faced gnome like creature with funny ears and a scraggly beard who busily searches the internet for humiliatingclimbdownists or istas / istos of any sex, sexuality, ethnicity, religious persuasion, trade, profession, service, grade or rank.

    Replacement Keyboards will be cheerfully issued at 1505 S (UTC-06) today only at this facility. The facility will close promptly at 1507 S. If you have two, draw one, if you have one, turn one in...

  13. #153
    Council Member Kiwigrunt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Auckland New Zealand
    Posts
    467

    Default

    I have just busily searched the Internet and I think I may have found me some.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Nothing that results in human progress is achieved with unanimous consent. (Christopher Columbus)

    All great truth passes through three stages: first it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
    (Arthur Schopenhauer)

    ONWARD

  14. #154
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    go after the idiots who thought China (which does not have an aircraft carrier yet) is going to allow the US sail one of theirs right into the Yellow Sea and thumb its nose at China.
    It's worth noting, I think, that the George Washington was operating in the Yellow Sea as recently as late 2009 without any major Chinese objection, which suggests that the reaction was less predictable than some would have us believe.

    Also worth noting that the purpose of the exercise was to deliver a message to North Korea (not that I think this would accomplish much, but that's another issue). Turning it into a saber-rattling showdown with China would only dilute that purpose, and in fact the only gainer from US-China tension in the area is North Korea. If you're keeping your eye on the purpose of the exercise, what was done makes sense... and I suspect that most of those observing (at least those whose observations matter) are sufficiently mature to see the difference between playground posturing and trying to hold focus on the issue of the moment.

  15. #155
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    It's worth noting, I think, that the George Washington was operating in the Yellow Sea as recently as late 2009 without any major Chinese objection, which suggests that the reaction was less predictable than some would have us believe.
    You mean you didn't detect the sea change?

    Also worth noting that the purpose of the exercise was to deliver a message to North Korea (not that I think this would accomplish much, but that's another issue). Turning it into a saber-rattling showdown with China would only dilute that purpose, and in fact the only gainer from US-China tension in the area is North Korea. If you're keeping your eye on the purpose of the exercise, what was done makes sense... and I suspect that most of those observing (at least those whose observations matter) are sufficiently mature to see the difference between playground posturing and trying to hold focus on the issue of the moment.
    Yes exactly, the purpose was to rattle the North Korean cage. However, due to the lack of intelligent foresight it turned out to be a potential head butting with China. And of course sanity prevailed in the end and the US/ROK took off into the Sea of Japan to play there.

    I believe North Korea sent a note of thanks to uncle Hong.

  16. #156
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Kansas
    Posts
    1,099

    Post Dang JMA

    You make it sounds so ominous, all (you guys done lost your mojo-ish)

    Don't seem that hard to understand to me, then again I'm kinda a simple guy.

    Since you seem to like to present things in more human to human vs state v state context try this one on for size.

    If someone in the family is havin problems with their neighbor and you of course offer to walk over to the neighbors with them to "talk it out" Just cause the old guy in the house on one side of them ask you not to step on his new grass, and you comply and go the other direction doesn't mean you -

    1- Were scared of nor deterred by the old man (i mean we all know how hard it is the get new grass to grow)

    2- Didn't make it to the door to have the "heart to heart"
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

  17. #157
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    You mean you didn't detect the sea change?
    If by "sea change" you mean somethinmg fundamental, there isn't one... just the usual cycle of occasional spasms of saber-rattling interspersed with business as usual. At the end of the day business generally prevails over saber-rattling; it makes more money.


    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I believe North Korea sent a note of thanks to uncle Hong.
    Why? Which side of the peninsula the exercise occurred on makes little difference to the north. In fact the entire exercise makes little difference to the north, just the expected step in a ritual dance. The North Koreans would have been desperately hoping for a US-China confrontation, which would only benefit them, but they didn't get it.

    Mountains out of molehills, soon to be forgotten and of no lasting relevance.

  18. #158
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey View Post
    You make it sounds so ominous, all (you guys done lost your mojo-ish)

    Don't seem that hard to understand to me, then again I'm kinda a simple guy.

    Since you seem to like to present things in more human to human vs state v state context try this one on for size.

    If someone in the family is havin problems with their neighbor and you of course offer to walk over to the neighbors with them to "talk it out" Just cause the old guy in the house on one side of them ask you not to step on his new grass, and you comply and go the other direction doesn't mean you -

    1- Were scared of nor deterred by the old man (i mean we all know how hard it is the get new grass to grow)

    2- Didn't make it to the door to have the "heart to heart"
    That analogy does not relate to what is being discussed. You care to try again?

  19. #159
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    If by "sea change" you mean somethinmg fundamental, there isn't one... just the usual cycle of occasional spasms of saber-rattling interspersed with business as usual. At the end of the day business generally prevails over saber-rattling; it makes more money.
    There are none so blind as those who will not see.

    The fundamental change happened on two fronts. One, China crossed the line where it now felt strong enough to instruct the US to stay out of the Yellow Sea, and two, that the US position has weakened to the extent that it complied. That is a sea change when viewed in terms of the international pecking order.

    Why? Which side of the peninsula the exercise occurred on makes little difference to the north. In fact the entire exercise makes little difference to the north, just the expected step in a ritual dance. The North Koreans would have been desperately hoping for a US-China confrontation, which would only benefit them, but they didn't get it.
    LOL... it reinforces the belief in North Korea that China has assertited itself and as a result the US has accepted a subordinate role to China (certainly in that region) which will have a material effect on what happens in North Korea, Taiwan and ultimately Japan.

    Did you really miss this or are you just arguing for the sake of the fun of the argument?

  20. #160
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Kansas
    Posts
    1,099

    Default Naw

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    That analogy does not relate to what is being discussed. You care to try again?
    This one must be beyond me.

    Perhaps you'd care to point out a more accurate one
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

Similar Threads

  1. North Korea 2017 onwards
    By AdamG in forum Asia-Pacific
    Replies: 158
    Last Post: 07-08-2019, 01:56 PM
  2. Replies: 24
    Last Post: 02-11-2018, 07:25 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •