North Korea: 2012-2016

[davidbfpo]

I always find the Australian viewpoint useful on regional matters in the Pacific, partly as the UK has drawn in somewhat of late.

So the Australian "think tank" the Lowy Institute has this, with multiple links to those who cannot get enough of matters Korean:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...rth-Korea.aspx

Their summary on the last link writing is useful too:

Depending how the crisis evolved, and how key powers responded, a Korean strategic shock could contribute greatly to turning any of this paper's four scenarios – US or Chinese primacy, balance or concert – into a reality. Korea and what happens there could well prove to be the strategic pivot of Asia in the twenty-first century.

Then there's the nuclear issue:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...the-grave.aspx

Given the potential in Korea (both nations) it does rather make the recent US-Australian basing agreement rather dull and peripheral.

Secondly just what role China (PRC) will play is - to me - unclear. Is North Korea best described as a "sick, starving child (or neighbour) with a dangerous military" or "a neighbour who is useful, with a hereditary ruling family"?