North Korea: 2012-2016

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I would also offer this for those who want to understand more about north Korea. Andrei Lankov (truth in lending I have known him for many years) was a Soviet Citizen who studied in Pyongyang, is fluent in Korea and then later defected to Australia and is now a professor in South Korea. He is one of the biggest advocates for getting information into north Korea.

This excerpt is why I am skeptical of north Korean reforms. But if they really do attempt reforms we (the Alliance South Korea in the lead with US in support) absolutely need to be preparing for regime collapse. We need to be aware of the potential fallout from reforms because as much as we want them to reform, open up, and change, those reforms might not lead to the change we want to believe in:

This is a recipe for discontent and even a revolution, somewhat similar to the recent events in Tunisia or the events of 1989 in Romania and East Germany.

And the real question is whether Kim Jong-un can find a balance among the north Korean "trinity" (fear, economic reforms and propaganda):

Alas, a North Korea in the throes of reform would not become immediately more stable but would become less stable than the ossified state of the Kim Jong Il era. It is possible, though unlikely, that the regime would find a balance of fear, economic incentives and propaganda that would allow it to keep the populace under control.

I am not optimistic that they can find balance other than one weighted most heavily on fear, secondarily on propaganda to reinforce that fear (and control), and only cosmetic economic reforms.

The risk in reforming North Korea

By Andrei Lankov, Published: September 4

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...430_print.html