North Korea: 2012-2016

[Van]

"The North Korean regime is on alert after signs of public unrest mainly in North Pyongyan Province," Later in the same article, there are references to the influence of the "Jasmine Revolutions" in North Korea.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...022401282.html

OK, The source is very biased, but...

Hypothetically, (and yes, it is unlikely, but it deserves a degree of consideration) the current North Korean regime falls, and the military district commanders accept South Korean assistance; then what?

What degree of popular resistance is to South Korean/U.S. assistance is likely?

Who is likely to organize the resistance? Or will it be more of a "viral" resistance?

How about a situation where some district commanders accept South Korea's authority and other don't? What if the ones that don't accept the intervention get backing from China or Russia? Which ones are likely to accept the South, which are likely to go with Russia or China? Which might seek autonomy? Why?

Will China tolerate the humanitarian efforts to stabilize the tattered shreds of the North or will they stage their own intervention? Will there be a race for Pyongyang, like the race between the Soviets and the Allies after WW II for control of the remains of Germany? What might make a "natural" demarcation?

How about the likely refuge flow into China? And the refuge flow south?

Will Japan assist in a humanitarian effort? Should they? How tolerant would South Korea be of this assistance? (I've heard it said by Koreans that the only thing that could unify North and South Korea would be the desire to attack Japan.)

How about Russia?

Would Iran attempt to assert itself? (Look at the relationship between North Korea and Iran, there may be reasons for this sequel:Official: Iran, NKorea are in 'one trench'.) What other 'non-regional' players might try to intervene?

(Possibly the most important question) What other questions need to be asked?

Yes, it is a wild card scenario; check, I get it. But it is not impossible (just profoundly unlikely, sort of like the idea of a bunch of third world scumbags with bad personal hygiene changing the New York City skyline... So unlikely it would have gotten you thrown out of the Pentagon or CIA, on 10 September, 2001). Let's move past that and really think critically about this scenario.

Van

"Analysis Section:
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[anonamatic]

I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.

They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.

[Hacksaw]

I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.

They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.

this last part in bold... All actors are rational and predictable so long as you are able to understand their frames of reference regarding reasonable and acceptable... now in this case getting that nut cracked is really really hard . I just think we too often ascribe crazy or irrational to behavior/decisions we don't understand... as if they are un-understandable as opposed to lacking the right decision framework to understand/predict...

I am officially off my soapbox