Hmmm...That would be the makings for a new Clancy novel, and frankly was something I had never thought of.
It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.
There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.
It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.
The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.
Hmmm...That would be the makings for a new Clancy novel, and frankly was something I had never thought of.
Last edited by jcustis; 11-20-2006 at 05:04 PM.
For those with too much free time I highly recommend Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader by Bradley Martin. It's a pretty hefty tome but very thorough. Most of the book focuses on his interviews with various defectors. It's probably the best look inside the regime I've come across.
Status Quo
While it is impossible to predict what will happen in North Korea I think it is safe to say that China has no interest in seeing North Korea implode in the immediate future, since they are hosting the Olympics in 2008 (major show case demonstration for what many predict will the nation with the world's largest economy by 2020), and S. Korea is more concerned about their economic development than their starving brothers and sisters in the North (a conflict of any type with the North would most likely be severely disruptive). I would place my money that the status quo will continue "if" North Korea's neighbors' have the ability to help Kim Jung Il maintain it.
I think that Kim Jong-il will survive as leader of North Korea only as long as he's able to keep the military fed and happy...which is becoming more and more problematic it seems. When he's no longer able to do that, I suspect his time left in office will be very short. Militaries don't react well to leaders who don't give them their food or their paychecks, especially when the military are the only ones getting food in the country. Of course, Kim would probably choose to cede much of his power to the Chinese government in exchange for their help if it ever came to that point. I seriously doubt he's so detached from reality that he doesn't realize that a military coup would ultimately result in his execution.
Why hasn't anyone thought about colluding with the Chinese to overthrow Kim? China has to have more inroads in their military than we do... surely there must be SOMEBODY who can replace Kim that we can deal with as well.
The Chinese stand to lose the most here from Kim's antics... and this isn't the first episode. The Chinese are communist, but they're also practical. I'm surprised they haven't "solved" the problem yet.
Kim serves as a useful distraction. Despite all the saber rattling, I suspect that he is no where near as dangerous as portrayed. He has a huge army that is very short of funds to train and make repairs. He has a population that spends most of the time on the line between hunger and starvation. His missile tests have failed, miserably and his nuke made such a poor showing that it tool several days to determine if indeed it even was a nuke. Even his most optimistic generals have to be aware that if they do attack the ROK army and subsequently the US military will punish them severely, not to mention how pissed China will be because they will have to deal with the floods of refugees. I'm not saying that he isn't dangerous but unless he is cornered I seriously doubt that he will follow through with any of his rhetoric. Even he can do the math on that one.
By the way, is it still accurate to refer to China as Communist or would it be more apt to describe them as a burgeoning capitalist nation with a strong authoritarian government?
SFC W
China likes the situation exactly as it is and would never support overthrowing KJI. The worse thing they fear (both politically and militarily) is a unified democratic Korean Pennisula, allied with the US.
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