View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

  1. #261
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    It happens all the time. Iraq and Afghanistan are just two recent examples.
    Two excellent examples of why invading countries and trying to replace governments we dislike is generally not a good idea. Invading North Korea or Iran would be a fairly complicated and extraordinarily expensive affair with substantial risks... and whom do you propose to do the invading (and the paying)? Not exactly something you're going to build an international coalition around... do you expect the US to do it unilaterally? If not the US, then who?

    From an American perspective... I'm afraid you'll have to find someone else. We can't afford the wars we've got, let alone another one. If you're willing to cover the costs, we'll reconsider as soon as your check clears. A trillion or so to start would do.

  2. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Two excellent examples of why invading countries and trying to replace governments we dislike is generally not a good idea. Invading North Korea or Iran would be a fairly complicated and extraordinarily expensive affair with substantial risks... and whom do you propose to do the invading (and the paying)? Not exactly something you're going to build an international coalition around... do you expect the US to do it unilaterally? If not the US, then who?

    From an American perspective... I'm afraid you'll have to find someone else. We can't afford the wars we've got, let alone another one. If you're willing to cover the costs, we'll reconsider as soon as your check clears. A trillion or so to start would do.
    You seem to want to speak on behalf of the US yet are at odds with recent US precedent. So why not from now on just speak for yourself?

  3. #263
    Council Member Uboat509's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    You seem to want to speak on behalf of the US yet are at odds with recent US precedent.
    Unless the president could convince the majority of Americans that Iran or NK poses an immediate direct threat to the US and that no other means to counter that threat exists then it isn't going to happen. Look at the fighting over a relatively small increase in the number of troops in Afghanistan. Recent US precedent concerns the invasion of a country that housed the terrorist organization that had just attacked us and the invasion of a country that we had already beaten once militarily and that many believed was aquiring WMD in order to attack us or to provide to someone else so that they could attack us. Both invasions also happened before the economic crash. Things have changed since those invasions and I don't see a shred of evidence anywhere to suggest that the American people, much less the politicians in DC have the stomache for another invasion or occupation. Nor do I believe that we could afford it in any case.
    “Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”

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  4. #264
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    You seem to want to speak on behalf of the US yet are at odds with recent US precedent. So why not from now on just speak for yourself?
    I said an American perspective, not the American perspective. Since I am American, my perspective is an American one... one of many.

    Iraq and Afghanistan provide excellent examples of the risks and enormous expense of occupying nations and trying to install governments. Hasn't work out well, and Iran or North Korea would likely have been far worse.

    The comment about the check was of course tongue in cheek, but there's a point as well. When people in other countries say "we shouldn't allow..." they generally mean "the American taxpayer shouldn't allow...". The American taxpayer has, I suspect, had just about enough of that.

  5. #265
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Reading music
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBTIoL5vaOM

    Behold, the power of Open Source ... from

    http://www.informationdissemination....-underway.html
    So nine subs got under way over the weekend, 2 of those on official deployment. Actually the number is 10 over the period of the last week, because USS Jacksonville (SSN 699) just returned from deployment last week and USS Charlotte (SSN 766) deployed the next day. Worth remembering, ~60% of the submarines in US Navy inventory are in the Pacific.

    I'm sure this activity is completely unrelated to recent events on the Korean Peninsula. Or not.
    Last edited by Ken White; 12-08-2010 at 10:26 PM. Reason: Remove unnecessary bolding. Again
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  6. #266
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    Default This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?

    This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?

    Entry Excerpt:

    East Asia on the brink of small war.

    Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

    Topics include:

    1) A different kind of small war in Korea?

    2) Two intelligence reports mean more Afghan headaches for Obama

    A different kind of small war in Korea?

    This week, South Korea's government took steps to prepare the country for a military confrontation with North Korea. Artillery batteries practiced their gunnery and the country had its first serious civil defense drill in decades. Within the next few days, the South promised another artillery exercise from Yeonpyeong Island, the island the North shelled for an hour on Nov. 23. Should the South carry through with this exercise, Pyongyang made its own promise, a riposte "deadlier than what was made on Nov. 23." The mood in the South has hardened -- another round of six-party talks is out, military preparation and air raid drills are in.

    After two unanswered provocations by the North -- the attack on Yeonpyeong and the sinking of the warship Cheonan -- the South's political leaders have concluded that it now pays to be tough and have promised retaliatory airstrikes for future Northern attacks. This change in attitude has consequences for Obama administration officials, who would surely prefer not to be drawn into an armed skirmish. U.S. officials likely agree in principle with a tougher policy toward the North. Much less agreeable to them is letting the South Korean government determine by itself how to retaliate after the next provocation. The United States will want to demonstrate that it is a reliable ally, while also maintaining control over its own fate. How the U.S. government manages this dilemma during a fast-moving crisis remains to be seen.

    On Dec. 13, the South Korean army sent its artillery forces into the field for a workout, conducting gunnery exercises at 27 sites. Much more important was a nation-wide civil defense drill on Dec. 15, the first such serious drill in decades. 300,000 police and Civil Defense Corps members mobilized for the 20-minute exercise, herding pedestrians and schoolchildren into bombs shelters and subway stations while South Korean fighter jets buzzed overhead. Eleven million South Koreans participated in the exercise. In addition, the government plans to spend $45 million next year on new bomb shelters. Given Seoul's vulnerability to North Korean artillery fire, a South Korean threat of retaliation previously lacked credibility. Seoul's renewed commitment to civil defense has bolstered the credibility of its new retaliatory policy.

    Click through to read more ...



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  7. #267
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Japan has unveiled a sweeping update of its national defence polices, prescribing a more flexible posture and refocusing its capabilities as it confronts China's military buildup and North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
    The National Defence Programme Guideline approved by Prime Minister Naoto Kan's cabinet yesterday stopped short of easing a ban on arms exports - a move opposed by a small pacifist party whose help Kan wants to pass bills in a divided parliament - but left the door open to international joint development of weapons.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/China-a...rce.6664823.jp
    The traditionally uneasy relationship between Tokyo and Seoul turned chillier last week when Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said his country's military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, could be dispatched to South Korea to whisk Japanese nationals out of harm's way. The comments were meant to reassure Japanese citizens about potential threats from North Korea or China, but instead they raised concerns about the likelihood of Japan's rearmament.
    http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec...itary-20101215
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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  8. #268
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    Default ‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed

    ‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed

    Entry Excerpt:

    Today, South Korean marines proceeded with an artillery training exercise on Yeonpyeong Island. Instead of delivering “brutal consequences beyond imagination” if the exercise went ahead, the North Korean government instead concluded that it was “not worth reacting” to the 94-minute drill.

    South Korea called the North’s bluff and the North folded its hand, at least for now. The South boosted its leverage in several ways. First, it evacuated civilians on the island and in other forward locations. Second, it waited for clear weather and put F-15 fighter-bombers in the air, presumably in preparation for counter-battery strikes against North Korean artillery positions. Finally, about 20 U.S. soldiers participated in the exercise as observes, or more accurately as “trip-wires” for a U.S. retaliatory response against the North. The North’s leaders likely concluded that in this case they did not possess escalation dominance. The North has exposed itself as a bluffer and will have to run much greater risks in the future to reestablish its reputation for ferocity.

    This weekend’s drama was a breakthrough for the South Korean government.

    Click through to read more ...



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  9. #269
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    Default J. P. Bermudez...

    ...has an interesting piece on the recent North Korean artillery "attack"...:http://www.kpajournal.com/storage/KPAJ-1-12.pdf
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-29-2010 at 07:09 PM. Reason: New link added, old one failed.

  10. #270
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    ICG, 23 Dec 10: North Korea: The Risks of War in the Yellow Sea
    ...It is clear that the Yellow Sea is becoming a zone of worsening danger. This analysis of the sea boundary is based on numerous interviews in the ROK and elsewhere on the origins and legal uncertainty surrounding the NLL, the rules of engagement in the South and the history of clashes in the area. This paper is intended as a background resource on a problem that is intertwined with complex historical, political, economic, legal, military and symbolic issues. Resolution will require analysis and compromise across all these dimensions. The NLL is very controversial politically in South Korea; political compromise and the establishment of a de jure inter-Korean maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea (which could well prove territorially less advantageous to the South) would be extremely difficult for any South Korean leader to pull off. An update briefing on South Korean politics within this context will follow this background paper....

  11. #271
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    Default nK Threatens War Over Christmas Lights

    http://www.aolnews.com/2010/12/22/no...istmas-lights/

    North Korea's Grinch-like military reportedly is threatening to shell a floodlit metal tower -- decked with 100,000 light bulbs and topped with an illuminated cross -- that the South has erected on its side of the heavily militarized border, according to the South's Yonhap News Agency. The Christmas tree-shaped beacon was switched on Tuesday night at a ceremony that saw a Santa-hatted choir -- surrounded by gun-toting marines -- sing "Joy to the World" and other carols.

  12. #272
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    SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea has faster, more powerful tanks prowling the world's most heavily armed border and 200,000 special forces poised to carry out assassinations and cause havoc in South Korea, a major military review said Thursday.

    Seoul's Defense Ministry report, released every two years, signals that the North's military threat has expanded. It comes as President Lee Myung-bak's administration scrambles to respond to criticism that it was unprepared for a Nov. 23 North Korean artillery attack on a front-line island that killed four people.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101230/...Roa29yZWFubw--
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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  13. #273
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default North Korea's uranium programme heightens concern

    davidbfpo

  14. #274
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    Default Korea...

    A friend who knows I am interested in the region told me to watch the Korean area as there were signs something was cooking that is not being reported in the press.

    Does anyone have a feeling that things are going to hot up in the next couple of weeks?

    Best
    Chris

  15. #275
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    Default could be related to this...

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MA22Dg01.html
    "North Korea set on third nuclear test"

    It might be related, but on the other hand I concur with the authors in terms of this being a `when not if' situation. I also expect them to do some things to try to look strong at China's expense. It's very hard to predict what they'll do however because their government is pathologically irrational, and it's not restricted to one area of government, or only a few of their leaders. The crazy runs deep in that country.

    To give one example (of which perhaps there are no end...), my first thought was that they might wait some period of time until after Hu's visit to the US had concluded and settled down some before they lit new fires. Then I remembered that they most recently broke the armistice in the middle of China's hosting of the Asian Games. When that happened I was pretty surprised at the level of disdain for China's interests that they demonstrated with that aggression.

  16. #276
    Council Member Van's Avatar
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    Default North Korean protests?

    "The North Korean regime is on alert after signs of public unrest mainly in North Pyongyan Province," Later in the same article, there are references to the influence of the "Jasmine Revolutions" in North Korea.

    http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...022401282.html

    OK, The source is very biased, but...

    Hypothetically, (and yes, it is unlikely, but it deserves a degree of consideration) the current North Korean regime falls, and the military district commanders accept South Korean assistance; then what?

    What degree of popular resistance is to South Korean/U.S. assistance is likely?

    Who is likely to organize the resistance? Or will it be more of a "viral" resistance?

    How about a situation where some district commanders accept South Korea's authority and other don't? What if the ones that don't accept the intervention get backing from China or Russia? Which ones are likely to accept the South, which are likely to go with Russia or China? Which might seek autonomy? Why?

    Will China tolerate the humanitarian efforts to stabilize the tattered shreds of the North or will they stage their own intervention? Will there be a race for Pyongyang, like the race between the Soviets and the Allies after WW II for control of the remains of Germany? What might make a "natural" demarcation?

    How about the likely refuge flow into China? And the refuge flow south?

    Will Japan assist in a humanitarian effort? Should they? How tolerant would South Korea be of this assistance? (I've heard it said by Koreans that the only thing that could unify North and South Korea would be the desire to attack Japan.)

    How about Russia?

    Would Iran attempt to assert itself? (Look at the relationship between North Korea and Iran, there may be reasons for this sequel:Official: Iran, NKorea are in 'one trench'.) What other 'non-regional' players might try to intervene?

    (Possibly the most important question) What other questions need to be asked?

    Yes, it is a wild card scenario; check, I get it. But it is not impossible (just profoundly unlikely, sort of like the idea of a bunch of third world scumbags with bad personal hygiene changing the New York City skyline... So unlikely it would have gotten you thrown out of the Pentagon or CIA, on 10 September, 2001). Let's move past that and really think critically about this scenario.

    Van

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    Two drink minimum"
    Last edited by Van; 02-26-2011 at 09:33 AM. Reason: Added citation

  17. #277
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    Default hmm

    I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.

    They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.

  18. #278
    Council Member Hacksaw's Avatar
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    Default couldn't agree more, but...

    Quote Originally Posted by anonamatic View Post
    I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.

    They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.
    this last part in bold... All actors are rational and predictable so long as you are able to understand their frames of reference regarding reasonable and acceptable... now in this case getting that nut cracked is really really hard . I just think we too often ascribe crazy or irrational to behavior/decisions we don't understand... as if they are un-understandable as opposed to lacking the right decision framework to understand/predict...

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  19. #279
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    North Korea appears to be protesting the joint U.S. and South Korean military maneuvers by jamming Global Positioning Devices in the south, which is a nuisance for cell phone and computers users -- but is a hint of the looming menace for the military.

    *
    The North is believed to be nearing completion of an electromagnetic pulse bomb that, if exploded 25 miles above ground would cause irreversible damage to electrical and electronic devices such as mobile phones, computers, radio and radar, experts say.

    "We assume they are at a considerably substantial level of development," Park Chang-kyu of the Agency for Defense Development said at a briefing to the parliament Monday.
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=13081667
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    Two thousand pounds of education
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  20. #280
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    Default Kim Jong Il reported dead

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/s...ies/52058036/1

    Kim's death was announced Monday by the state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
    Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but he had appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media. The communist country's "Dear Leader" — reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine — was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease...
    Bets on how long the son lasts, if he is in fact the face of leadership who is paraded out tomorrow?

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