North Korea: 2012-2016

[Stu-6]

Well China does view Taiwan as part of it but that doesn’t mean they would go to war at the drop of the hat. I think they would consider the possible repercussions and are only likely to attack if the situation changes. I also think the connection between our Taiwan policy and Japan and Korea is overstated we have actual troops on the ground in both Japan and Korea which makes a major difference in determine our reliability in a fight. I think it might also be worth noting that our stated policy on Taiwan over the years has changed and incorporated various degrees of ambiguity with no obvious ill effect on our relationships with outer states.

[Jimbo]

I am not an Asia, expert. However my younger brother owns his company in the PRC. His office is in Beijing. He majored in CS and minored in Chinese at Texas. When he was last home we were talking, and he said that reading the OpEd pieces in the chinese newspapers, the chinese tend to think the DPRK leadership is insane (his words, not mine). China has some levers on the DPRK, but my brother points out that we in the U.S. tend to over-estimate the ability of the Chinese to pressure the DPRK. Furthermore, my brother said that the Chinese are pimamrily concerned about a mass illegal immigration if/when the DPRK collapses (Mentioned elsewhere on this website.). My brother has traveled extensively in the region (on his own, not package tour stuff). He stories of a trip out to Xiangjiang/Uighurstan (SP??) was fascinating.

[Jedburgh]

New from CFR: Crisis Guide: The Korean Peninsula

An interactive, multimedia guide to the dispute between North and South Korea.