Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
Interesting you mention Germany and Japan. More interesting may be their pay back -- when it occurs.
Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
A few score for Germany, whatever it takes for the far more patient Japan to include "hundreds." Both with the caveat that time will cure some of that as the world modifies and anger fades, thus the desire and thus the capability will diminish over time but either would take advantage of any opportunity or weakness to achieve to offset their known population decline which will adversely affect their ability for payback which a good many in both nations think is deserved.
The capabilities of the human animal are constant irrespective of place of origin however culture, as I have argued elsewhere, is very tough to change. You pose some sharp questions Ken which are interesting to think about. Having spent over a decade in Europe, and being a firm believer in the positive effects of the US melting pot, I will say up front that IMHO this scenario is very, very unlikely at this point in history.

For the sake of thinking about it however, and with respect to Germany in particular, I would in turn ask you a Slapout & JMM based question: does Motive, Means, and Opportunity exist for this to occur?

With respect to an important aspect of motive, will, this mornings english news was interesting and is starting to pick up on a theme that has been running in the german news for a few weeks now. From the BBC: Germans question Afghan war

German military involvement abroad is extremely unpopular back home - and becoming more disliked all the time.

According to the most recent polls, almost 70% of Germans now want their troops to pull out of Afghanistan.
But why are Germans so reluctant to send their troops into foreign combat?

"You have to go back a bit in German history, to the obvious place: the Second World War," said Mr Posener.

"We didn't only lose the war, in no uncertain terms. We were told it was our fault, and we were paying."

After half a century being told by the international community to be a non-threatening pacifist nation, Germany is now under pressure to become an effective military partner.

"Germans have had a hard time adjusting to all these mind-set changes that they are supposed to go through," said Mr Posener.

"Now we're supposed to flick a switch and suddenly be proud of our military heroes again."
Trade-wise what could be lost? US trade with Germany is reported as 3.7 billion USD per month by Wolfram Alpha.

If we assume, inaccurately, that expenditures alone determine the quality and capability of a fighting force Germany's military expenditures are reported as 41.8 billion USD per year while US military expenditures are reported as 503.4 billion USD per year. The potential military age population counts are 30.96 million vs 118.6 million (Germany:US) data again by Wolfram Alpha.

Orange Dave, I am not an Asia expert however, North Korea has been in the news of late:

From the BBC: In pictures: Burma's tunnel network

From the Sydney Morning Herald: Burma’s nuclear secrets