View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

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  1. #11
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    From the reports by the defecting civilians, the famine in the 90s took a severe toll, in deaths and the health of those who survived. This is especially true in areas outside of Pyongyang. I am sure those who grew up at that period of time (and survived), would have suffer from stunted growth.

    I suppose the good outcome of that is that their army has a larger number of people to select tankers from, given the size of Soviet tanks.

    I think there are sporadic reports of mutinies over the years. Not all may be true, but I can't believe that all are untrue. The guess of some is that these mutinies are due to ration shortage. Given the draconian discipline, they must be really hungry to mutiny.

    There are reports that PRC stopped shipment of fuel to NK. Might actually be untrue with shipments continuing quietly, but surely a sign of PRC's anger towards NK's recent action.

    -----------------------------

    The possible scenarios that I can see (but not necessarily likely):

    1. North Korea attempts to maintain status quo, while trying to squeeze whatever concessions they can out of the rest of the world and PRC. NK will slowly waste away while the rest of the world moves on.

    2. North Korea attempts to follow PRC's example of liberalizing the economy. This is highly unlikely, since Kim III is no Deng Xiaoping, nor there seems to be a Deng Xiaoping in NK. Even if there is, he/she can't do anything with the cult of Kim being firmly entrenched in the political ideology. The chance of this happening is very very slim.

    3. North Korea finally implodes with Kim losing control or dead. Would the PLA drive in and attempt to secure Pyongyang and plant a puppet? Would there be a sufficiently big incident that the South Korean government can use as justification to intervene?

    4. (Unintended?) escalation to full-scale war, due to the hardline factions on both sides who keep raising the stakes?

    -----------------------------

    The cost of the war and the even bigger cost of reunification is what stopping South Korea from marching north and putting an end to it all. I am sure everyone is aware that the cost will make the German reunification look like a walk in the park. Plus, I believe South Korean government still wants sufficient justification for a massive intervention. At the very least, they probably want to look like they are forced into action, so as to make themselves look like the victim of NK bullying and then as a saviour for the North Korean civilians on world political stage. However bellicose the current rhetoric seems, it is still words and no blood has been spilled these few months.


    It's late over here at GMT +8. My post may seem a little incoherent...
    Last edited by Maeda Toshiie; 04-12-2013 at 06:01 PM.

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