North Korea: 2012-2016

[Dayuhan]

What makes you think "we" is "US"?

Does it matter? Do you think accusations or blame from anywhere are going to embarrass the Chinese at all, let alone enough to get them to change a policy they find congenial? Does anyone but the US care enough to bother?

[Fuchs]

That's exactly my point. They have high ambitions and high expectations.
It would be possible to create the feeling that North Korea's behaviour and existence is a shame to them, since it's their backyard and they don't keep it calm.

This isn't about trade war mechanics or bargaining chips, but about the psychological needs and desires.
So far they can be amused by how easily the North Koreans fool the shallow-brained foreigners. Turn that perception into one of North Korea actually damaging the standing of China and being a chain that keeps China from being an example to the world and they might act very, very differently.

Turn North Korea into China's problem, period.
And I mean China, not just the Chinese government. Everything from caricatures and jokes up to political speeches in front of cameras and ruining days they intended to shine on.
Make them *want* to clean up the North Korean mess.

[Dayuhan]

It would be possible to create the feeling that North Korea's behaviour and existence is a shame to them, since it's their backyard and they don't keep it calm.

Possible for who exactly to create this feeling? How do you propose to create this feeling, and why do you think the Chinese give a hot round one about any feeling that anyone tries to create?

Turn that perception into one of North Korea actually damaging the standing of China

Among whom do you propose to create this perception, and how?

Turn North Korea into China's problem, period. And I mean China, not just the Chinese government. Everything from caricatures and jokes up to political speeches in front of cameras and ruining days they intended to shine on.
Make them *want* to clean up the North Korean mess.

Neither you nor I nor anyone else can make the Chinese want to do anything. They really don't care.

PS: That's aside from the reality that even if the Chinese wanted to try and "fix" North Korea it's not likely that they could, and the effort would almost certainly create more problems for them than it would solve, as efforts to "fix" other countries usually do. Why would they want to step into that kind of mess just because some unspecified person, nation, or group of people or nations is making a transparently manipulative attempt to embarrass them? The Chinese are in no way omniscient, but they aren't that stupid. Nobody's that stupid, except perhaps the Americans.

[Fuchs]

Look, from my point of view you simply lack creativity and imagination if you cannot believe that their perception of North Korea could be warped into seeing it as an intolerant embarrassment.


I suppose back in 1990 would have agreed that some Kosovars would certainly not be able to turn NATO against the government in Belgrade, to make Yugoslavian policy unbearable to most EU powers.
Yet, it happened. All they needed was a decent opportunity, some imagination and an understanding of which trigger they need to use.

[Dayuhan]

Look, from my point of view you simply lack creativity and imagination if you cannot believe that their perception of North Korea could be warped into seeing it as an intolerant embarrassment.

Ok, so display your creativity and imagination and tell us who you think could do this, how they could do it, and why you think the Chinese would care enough to undertake a risky venture that would probably end up in a world of scheisse just because someone (who?) undertakes a transparent attempt to manipulate them.

If you can't do that, all you've got is a fantasy. A marvelously creative and imaginative fantasy, but a fantasy nonetheless.

[Fuchs]

Step (1) for avoiding said transparency is certainly not to publish the plan in the internet, right?

I could easily devise an IO and diplomatic campaign, and add more proposals for action as history develops and more opportunities become available. I've got plenty ideas on this, and this should be quite obvious by what I wrote so far.
There's a limit to how much I do for free, though.


Your apparent idea of a Chinese black box that's immune to foreign influence is ridiculous.
They're humans just like you and me, their bureaucracies are bureaucracies not much unlike ours and their businesses are businesses like ours (=relevant in regard to media).
They have high expectations for the future and their standing in the world, and it's a piece of cake (for the Western great powers) to turn North Korea into their responsibility and their problem.
The bigger challenge is to get the Americans off their autopilot and out of the way. THAT is a tough nut (in the short to medium term).


P.S.: You're apparently equally lacking imagination in regard to what the PRC could do about North Korea.

[Dayuhan]

it's a piece of cake (for the Western great powers) to turn North Korea into their responsibility and their problem.

I officially call BS on that. You can't even tell us who's supposed to be undertaking these actions, let alone what they're supposed to do and why you think it would work... you just say you could do it. I don't think you could.

You're apparently equally lacking imagination in regard to what the PRC could do about North Korea.

I can do all kinds of amazing things in my imagination, but I'm not going to pretend that imagination will translate seamlessly to reality.

[Entropy]

Look, from my point of view you simply lack creativity and imagination if you cannot believe that their perception of North Korea could be warped into seeing it as an intolerant embarrassment.


I suppose back in 1990 would have agreed that some Kosovars would certainly not be able to turn NATO against the government in Belgrade, to make Yugoslavian policy unbearable to most EU powers.
Yet, it happened. All they needed was a decent opportunity, some imagination and an understanding of which trigger they need to use.

I don't think your Kosovo example supports your assertion. First, the prospect for civil war there was well known - indeed long before 1990. You can google up a prescient CIA analysis on Yugoslavian reforms in 1970.

Secondly, the "trigger" in your example was rebellion and civil war. I think if that were to occur in North Korea then the Chinese will be forced act. At that point there might be an opportunity to persuade/shame/whatever the Chinese. Then again there might not be. Personally, I'm suspicious of any claims of certainty regarding what is "obvious" when the future is involved.

Regardless, there is no such "trigger" in North Korea at present and the Chinese and others are working hard to prevent one from happening. No one really wants to deal with the consequences and so pretty much everyone is trying to push the inevitable off into the future as much as possible. Absent a trigger, AKA, a fundamental change in the status quo, I don't see your IO doing squat. Or maybe you advocate creating a trigger to force China's hand in order to provide an opening for your grand IO plan? Sounds like something Doug Feith would come up with.

There's a limit to how much I do for free, though.

Well, if your ideas, whatever they are, live up to your hype, then the US State Department will want to hire you as a consultant. Let us know how that goes.

[Tukhachevskii]

A. It would be possible to create the feeling that North Korea's behaviour and existence is a shame to them, since it's their backyard and they don't keep it calm.

B. 1. Turn that perception into one of North Korea actually damaging the standing of China and
2. being a chain that keeps China from being an example to the world and they might act very, very differently.

C. Turn North Korea into China's problem, period. [...] Make them *want* to clean up the North Korean mess.

As my 12 year old niece would say (in her best American accent) "really?....really?

A. What is shame? Here's one definition:

...shame is the feeling of loss of standing in the eyes of oneself or significant others and can occur as the result of a failure to live up to expectations for a person of one’s role or status. It entails not merely the feeling of having lost status, but the conviction that one is really not who one thought one was—the failure to achieve a wished-for self-image, the failure to live up to an ego ideal, or perhaps even the revelation that one embodies a negative ideal. p. 128

And here are some more.

Why should the DPRKs existence be "shameful" to China? The DPRKs existence provides China which a buffer zone against what it perceives to be an ally of the US (not there’s a perception we could work on). The DPRK is an ally, sabre rattling aside, China and the DPRK have relations that are qualitatively stronger than those of China and Russia or even China and the US. A sabre-rattling DPRK, in what you euphemistically describe as their backyard, serves to increase China’s worth in the six-party process and in the international arena precisely because they are “in their backyard”. Furthermore, do you really think China shares the universal sense of shame (or the standard of civlisation0 you seem to think exists as some kind of platonic ideal-type?

B. for a response to 1 see above. As for 2. What do you mean by “being an example to the world”? is there an objective criteria for this? If so please do tell.

C. The DPRK is/isn’t China’s problem in the same way that Mexico is for the US, or Iraq is for Iran (&c). The DPRK is an existential fact that China has to deal with anyway on a day to day basis. Calling the DPRK a “problem” implies that there is a solution. What is the problem though? As I see it, as a political relist, the DPRK is a state pursuing its own interests in an international system. No different from the US, Chile or Bangladesh. Each has to formulate policy based on its environment, its competitors/threats and its domestic structure. If the DPRK is a problem then it must be “abnormal” (there’s a functionalist bias in there somewhere)…what is a “normal” state? As for the DPRK being a “mess” you’ll have to objectively define what exactly a mess is.