View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

  1. #501
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    200 executions at a shooting range with an audience! And here I thought the only open gate to hell was in the Great Lakes region of Africa.
    How has this sub-human regime been allowed to remain in existence?

    First Truman was not up to the confrontation with China over Korea then Chinese support has allowed the regime to survive up to today.

    I suggest that when the regime eventually implodes that China and the US pony up $1trillion each to rebuild a destroyed nation.

  2. #502
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    JMA asked:
    How has this sub-human regime been allowed to remain in existence?
    The North Korean regime has survived partly due to external, now mainly Chinese support; historically the USSR provided some support and at the time of the Korean War 'Uncle Joe' was at the helm. Only after Gorbachev took power IIRC did Russia effectively turn away.

    The real reason for survival has been the apparent strength of its military and ruthlessness. Plus the uncertainty over having WMD. South Korea has only been a powerful economy in the last thirty years, with democracy arriving late.

    How will the world, let alone the neighbours, react to a regime change? Personally I don't think outsiders will have much impact. Anyone who emerges as the new leader is very unlikely to be different. Sadly.
    davidbfpo

  3. #503
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    9/10 for Creativity.

    A North Korean official has been executed with a flame-thrower, South Korean media has reported, amid a crackdown on loyalists of Kim Jong-un's purged uncle.

    As many as 11 senior party officials with close ties to Jang Song-taek have apparently recently been executed or sent to political prison camps
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-thrower.html
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  4. #504
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    Clearly neither China nor South Korea/US want more instability.

    But... it is the enslaved people of North Korea who deserve freedom.

    The welfare of the North Korean people should come first... not the concerns of the powers that created the problem in the first place.


    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    JMA asked:

    The North Korean regime has survived partly due to external, now mainly Chinese support; historically the USSR provided some support and at the time of the Korean War 'Uncle Joe' was at the helm. Only after Gorbachev took power IIRC did Russia effectively turn away.

    The real reason for survival has been the apparent strength of its military and ruthlessness. Plus the uncertainty over having WMD. South Korea has only been a powerful economy in the last thirty years, with democracy arriving late.

    How will the world, let alone the neighbours, react to a regime change? Personally I don't think outsiders will have much impact. Anyone who emerges as the new leader is very unlikely to be different. Sadly.

  5. #505
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    WASHINGTON (AP) — Recent satellite images show two new North Korean frigates, the largest surface combat ships the nation's navy has constructed in a quarter-century, a North Korea-watching website reported Thursday.

    The website, 38 North, says the frigates are designed to carry one helicopter each and appear to be designed to counter South Korean submarines and protect fisheries. The vessels appear to be equipped with anti-submarine rocket launchers.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/...te-images.html
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  6. #506
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    North Korea has threatened to reap "merciless" retaliation on the USA if they do not ban Seth Rogen and James Franco’s forthcoming comedy, The Interview.

    The government issued a statement about the film, in which the actors star as two journalists ordered by the CIA to assassinate Kim Jong-un, saying that the country considered the movie "an act of war" and a "wanton act of terror". He also labelled Rogen a "gangster filmmaker".
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/pe...m-9562426.html

  7. #507
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    This will be worth another few million people going to see this movie. These idiots never learn.

  8. #508
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Best Korea thinks this is not Best OPSEC Practices.

    South Korea said Thursday it would create a combined army unit with the United States, reportedly tasked with destroying North Korea's weapons of mass destruction in the event of an all-out conflict.

    The mechanised unit led by a US major general will be set up in the first half of next year, the South's defence ministry said, as part of elaborate preparations for any future war between the two Koreas.

    "It will be the first combined 'field combat' unit to carry out wartime operations," a defence ministry spokesman said without elaborating on its mission.

    If war breaks out, the unit would be tasked with eliminating weapons of mass destruction in the nuclear-armed North, Yonhap news agency said.
    http://news.yahoo.com/us-korea-creat...091716404.html
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  9. #509
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    Default China Warns North Korean Nuclear Threat Is Rising

    China Warns North Korean Nuclear Threat Is Rising

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-wa...ing-1429745706

    Pyongyang could double nuclear-weapons arsenal by next year, according to latest Beijing estimates
    The Chinese estimates reflect growing concern in Beijing over North Korea’s weapons program and what they see as U.S. inaction while President Barack Obama focuses on a nuclear deal with Iran.

    A well-armed North Korea may prompt the U.S. to adopt countermeasures, especially in missile defense. Adm. William Gortney, head of U.S. Northern Command, said this month that defense officials believe North Korea can now mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile called the KN-08. U.S. officials don’t believe the missile has been tested, but experts estimate it has a range of about 5,600 miles—within reach of the western edge of the continental U.S., including California.
    I have to admit I'm surprised Beijing would reflect publically that they're concerned about U.S. inaction regarding North Korea. There could be a number of strategic reasons why they would make that comment, but putting conspiracy theories and sophisticated strategizing aside, could it be for plain ole economic reasons they want to the region remain stable?

  10. #510
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    Default Stability please

    Citing Bill M. in part:
    I have to admit I'm surprised Beijing would reflect publically that they're concerned about U.S. inaction regarding North Korea. There could be a number of strategic reasons why they would make that comment, but putting conspiracy theories and sophisticated strategizing aside, could it be for plain ole economic reasons they want to the region remain stable?
    China certainly has a great stake in regional and international stability, even more so as their economy becomes more dependent on exports. Stability has to include the rather quixotic regime next door in North Korea, which it appears they too do not understand enough.

    If the USA has been focussing on Iranian nuclear matters to the detriment of shared Sino-American concerns over DPRK, then a public statement is a good way of reminding the USA other issues exist.
    davidbfpo

  11. #511
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default The Penalty for snoring at a Pyongyang staff meeting

    Temporary Autonomous thread for maximum impact.

    SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea's intelligence agency said Wednesday that Kim Jong Un's defense chief had been "removed" from his position in neighboring North Korea.

    It was unclear whether Hyon Yong Chol had been executed or merely ousted by the regime.

    A spokesman for the NIS intelligence agency told NBC News he could not confirm news agency reports that Hyon was shot to pieces with an anti-aircraft gun in front of hundreds of spectators.
    Last month, the U.S.-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) said satellite images had uncovered evidence that several people had been executed by anti-aircraft guns at Kanggon in October.

    The satellite images recorded some "very unusual activity" at a 100-yard firing range typically used for pistols and light machine guns, HRNK said, when a battery of six ZPU-4 anti-aircraft guns — which have a range of 8,000 yards — were deployed there.
    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/no...eports-n358176

    No figures in yet, but popcorn and hot dog stand concession sales were said to be respectable.
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  12. #512
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Six missing men

    AdamG,

    The brutality of the regime appears to gather pace. A BBC report today pointed out that:
    Of the seven pallbearers at former leader Kim Jong-il's 2011 funeral, apart from Kim Jong-un, all have either been executed, have lost their jobs or have not been seen in some time
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32716749

    A reader reminded me that Leeds University here in the UK has for odd reasons become the main watcher of North Korea and commends the blogs run by Adam Cathcart:http://sinonk.com/ and http://adamcathcart.com/
    davidbfpo

  13. #513
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    Default Moderator at work

    I have merged two smaller threads into the renamed main thread on North Korea:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17846

    It has had 476 posts and 87.5k views since 2006.
    davidbfpo

  14. #514
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    OSINT photo analysis.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pm_world_pop_b

    According to Greg Scarlatoiu and Joseph Bermudez Jr., the authors of HRNK's report, the the antiaircraft guns in the picture appear to be six ZPU-4s, Soviet-made heavy weaponry first used during the Korean war. They are positioned about 100 feet from the standing figures. A few feet behind the antiaircraft guns, there appear to be a line of troops and/or equipment, the report notes, with buses and trucks at the site suggesting that people had been bused in to watch whatever was happening.
    Shout-out for Joe Bermudez. Good job.
    http://www.kpajournal.com/about/
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  15. #515
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Vulnerability on display

    Adam Cathcart comments on the leadership's problem:
    But given what we know about how Kim operates and how he wishes to be perceived, it is more than possible that Hyon’s basic lack of interest in the personality cult is what led to his downfall.
    Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ong-un-rumour?
    davidbfpo

  16. #516
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    More shennanigans from Lil'Kim

    Photographs showing Kim Jong-un proudly watching as a North Korean missile was launched from an underwater submarine were manipulated by state propagandists, experts claimed on Tuesday.

    German aerospace experts said photos of the launch were "strongly modified", including reflections of the missile exhaust flame in the water which did not line up with the missile itself.

    "Considering the track record of North Korean deceptions, it seems sensible to assume that any North Korean SLBM [submarine-launched ballistic missile] capability is still a very long time in the future, if it will ever surface," Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, of Schmucker Technologie, told Reuters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/tec...gh6927?stb=red
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  17. #517
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    Default For one Korean a luxury trip

    A bizarre twist to this thread and the headline is enough:
    Kim Jong-un's 'brat pack' brother jets in to London for Eric Clapton concert
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-concert.html
    davidbfpo

  18. #518
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    SEOUL — North Korea has been planting anti-personnel mines alongside the inter-Korean border for the past couple of months to prevent North Korean soldiers from fleeing to South Korea, a South Korean official said Sunday.
    http://www.koreatimesus.com/n-korea-...diers-fleeing/

    A teenaged North Korean soldier walked across the world's most heavily militarized border on Monday in a bid to defect to South Korea, South Korean Defense Ministry officials said.

    While there are more than a thousand defections from North Korea to South Korea every year, most defectors come via China and it is rare for a North Korean to crossing the heavily mined Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The last such crossing was in 2012.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0OV04W20150615
    Last edited by AdamG; 06-15-2015 at 01:52 PM.
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  19. #519
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    Default A place watching DPRK

    Found just after a tip from FP:http://38north.org/

    From their 'About':
    a website devoted to analysis of North Korea. While it strives to break new ground, the site’s main objective is to bring the best possible analysis to both seasoned North Korea watchers and general audiences alike. Too often analysis of the North is permeated by inexperience, littered with inaccurate information or grounded in poorly deducted reasoning. We believe no one really knows for sure what is going on in North Korea, but we can at least try to understand the possibilities. Similarly, anyone who professes certainty should be viewed with the greatest skepticism. To accomplish these objectives, 38 North harnesses the experience of long-time observers of North Korea and others who have dealt directly with North Koreans. It draws on other experts outside the field who might bring fresh, well-informed insights to those of us who follow North Korea.
    From Wiki:
    is a blog about North Korea maintained by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and authored by its faculty and by guest commentators. The site analyzes reporting on North Korea from a cautious perspective.
    davidbfpo

  20. #520
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    North Korea appears to be intensifying nuclear and ballistic missile development efforts that could lead to further international sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime.

    North Korea’s state controlled media KCNA said Tuesday the country’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon was in full operation. The reactor was shut down in 2007. However following North Korea’s third nuclear test in 2013, Pyongyang said it would restart the facility.

    Some military analysts, studying satellite images of the complex, asserted back in January that the nuclear bomb fuel reactor was again operational. But until now there had not been any official confirmation.
    http://www.voanews.com/content/south...h/2964186.html
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