It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.
There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.
It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.
The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.
Wasn't there an incident back in february(?) where the KPA carried out an artillery live firing exercise with the target zones located out to sea and said it was an exercise? IIRC the ROK responded with artillrey fire of their own. Could this be the same thing gone awry?Originally Posted by Dayuhan
I'm no expert, but 2 fatalities seems awfully light casualties for an artillery duel lasting an hour and 200 rounds (according to Stratfor anyway). It seems to me that either there wasn't much where they were shooting at or they didn't hit what they were aiming for.
Good point, was thinking the same thing
Guess if theres any comfort in this whole deal it knowing that somewhere in NK some arty bubbas having to face the music about suckage, considering that whichever they were aiming at (water or land) quite a few didn't hit what they were aiming for.
Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours
Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur
NK told SK to stop the live firing exercise in the disputed border area. SK ignored them. NK fired 200 rounds to make a point. SK fired off 60 in some direction? and then ran to grab hold of Uncle Sam's skirts. This round to NK.
As to red lines. If torpedoing a naval vessel killing the crew of 46 is not crossing a red line then what is?
This is the kind of problem the world faces when these rogue regimes obtain/develop nukes.
This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?
This Week at War: Could North Korea be the next Afghanistan?
Entry Excerpt:
East Asia on the brink of small war.
Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:
Topics include:
1) A different kind of small war in Korea?
2) Two intelligence reports mean more Afghan headaches for Obama
A different kind of small war in Korea?
This week, South Korea's government took steps to prepare the country for a military confrontation with North Korea. Artillery batteries practiced their gunnery and the country had its first serious civil defense drill in decades. Within the next few days, the South promised another artillery exercise from Yeonpyeong Island, the island the North shelled for an hour on Nov. 23. Should the South carry through with this exercise, Pyongyang made its own promise, a riposte "deadlier than what was made on Nov. 23." The mood in the South has hardened -- another round of six-party talks is out, military preparation and air raid drills are in.
After two unanswered provocations by the North -- the attack on Yeonpyeong and the sinking of the warship Cheonan -- the South's political leaders have concluded that it now pays to be tough and have promised retaliatory airstrikes for future Northern attacks. This change in attitude has consequences for Obama administration officials, who would surely prefer not to be drawn into an armed skirmish. U.S. officials likely agree in principle with a tougher policy toward the North. Much less agreeable to them is letting the South Korean government determine by itself how to retaliate after the next provocation. The United States will want to demonstrate that it is a reliable ally, while also maintaining control over its own fate. How the U.S. government manages this dilemma during a fast-moving crisis remains to be seen.
On Dec. 13, the South Korean army sent its artillery forces into the field for a workout, conducting gunnery exercises at 27 sites. Much more important was a nation-wide civil defense drill on Dec. 15, the first such serious drill in decades. 300,000 police and Civil Defense Corps members mobilized for the 20-minute exercise, herding pedestrians and schoolchildren into bombs shelters and subway stations while South Korean fighter jets buzzed overhead. Eleven million South Koreans participated in the exercise. In addition, the government plans to spend $45 million next year on new bomb shelters. Given Seoul's vulnerability to North Korean artillery fire, a South Korean threat of retaliation previously lacked credibility. Seoul's renewed commitment to civil defense has bolstered the credibility of its new retaliatory policy.
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‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed
‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed
Entry Excerpt:
Today, South Korean marines proceeded with an artillery training exercise on Yeonpyeong Island. Instead of delivering “brutal consequences beyond imagination” if the exercise went ahead, the North Korean government instead concluded that it was “not worth reacting” to the 94-minute drill.
South Korea called the North’s bluff and the North folded its hand, at least for now. The South boosted its leverage in several ways. First, it evacuated civilians on the island and in other forward locations. Second, it waited for clear weather and put F-15 fighter-bombers in the air, presumably in preparation for counter-battery strikes against North Korean artillery positions. Finally, about 20 U.S. soldiers participated in the exercise as observes, or more accurately as “trip-wires” for a U.S. retaliatory response against the North. The North’s leaders likely concluded that in this case they did not possess escalation dominance. The North has exposed itself as a bluffer and will have to run much greater risks in the future to reestablish its reputation for ferocity.
This weekend’s drama was a breakthrough for the South Korean government.
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Korea...
A friend who knows I am interested in the region told me to watch the Korean area as there were signs something was cooking that is not being reported in the press.
Does anyone have a feeling that things are going to hot up in the next couple of weeks?
Best
Chris
could be related to this...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MA22Dg01.html
"North Korea set on third nuclear test"
It might be related, but on the other hand I concur with the authors in terms of this being a `when not if' situation. I also expect them to do some things to try to look strong at China's expense. It's very hard to predict what they'll do however because their government is pathologically irrational, and it's not restricted to one area of government, or only a few of their leaders. The crazy runs deep in that country.
To give one example (of which perhaps there are no end...), my first thought was that they might wait some period of time until after Hu's visit to the US had concluded and settled down some before they lit new fires. Then I remembered that they most recently broke the armistice in the middle of China's hosting of the Asian Games. When that happened I was pretty surprised at the level of disdain for China's interests that they demonstrated with that aggression.
North Korean protests?
"The North Korean regime is on alert after signs of public unrest mainly in North Pyongyan Province," Later in the same article, there are references to the influence of the "Jasmine Revolutions" in North Korea.
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...022401282.html
OK, The source is very biased, but...
Hypothetically, (and yes, it is unlikely, but it deserves a degree of consideration) the current North Korean regime falls, and the military district commanders accept South Korean assistance; then what?
What degree of popular resistance is to South Korean/U.S. assistance is likely?
Who is likely to organize the resistance? Or will it be more of a "viral" resistance?
How about a situation where some district commanders accept South Korea's authority and other don't? What if the ones that don't accept the intervention get backing from China or Russia? Which ones are likely to accept the South, which are likely to go with Russia or China? Which might seek autonomy? Why?
Will China tolerate the humanitarian efforts to stabilize the tattered shreds of the North or will they stage their own intervention? Will there be a race for Pyongyang, like the race between the Soviets and the Allies after WW II for control of the remains of Germany? What might make a "natural" demarcation?
How about the likely refuge flow into China? And the refuge flow south?
Will Japan assist in a humanitarian effort? Should they? How tolerant would South Korea be of this assistance? (I've heard it said by Koreans that the only thing that could unify North and South Korea would be the desire to attack Japan.)
How about Russia?
Would Iran attempt to assert itself? (Look at the relationship between North Korea and Iran, there may be reasons for this sequel:Official: Iran, NKorea are in 'one trench'.) What other 'non-regional' players might try to intervene?
(Possibly the most important question) What other questions need to be asked?
Yes, it is a wild card scenario; check, I get it. But it is not impossible (just profoundly unlikely, sort of like the idea of a bunch of third world scumbags with bad personal hygiene changing the New York City skyline... So unlikely it would have gotten you thrown out of the Pentagon or CIA, on 10 September, 2001). Let's move past that and really think critically about this scenario.
Van
"Analysis Section:
Two drink minimum"
Last edited by Van; 02-26-2011 at 09:33 AM. Reason: Added citation
hmm
I wouldn't rule a collapse out at this point at all. I'm not sure the whole dynastic transition is going very smoothly. That especially after all the hard case military adventure on their part did not result in the sorts of external activities they could apply the usual twists to lie & attempt to claim victory from. Worse, they crapped on China using the same sort of face losing tactics employed by Russia during the Olympic games during the Asian games. They broke the armistice, everyone there knows they did, it probably carries more weight there and in China than it seems to as well. Since SK hardened up afterwards, it didn't work very well for them in that sense either.
They may try to provoke more serious violence to quell domestic discontent too. The problem with any look at NK is that it's a Disneyland of Crazy. It's impossible, and unreasonable to expect any rational behavior from them, even when everyone in the country is starving.
couldn't agree more, but...
this last part in bold... All actors are rational and predictable so long as you are able to understand their frames of reference regarding reasonable and acceptable... now in this case getting that nut cracked is really really hard . I just think we too often ascribe crazy or irrational to behavior/decisions we don't understand... as if they are un-understandableas opposed to lacking the right decision framework to understand/predict...
I am officially off my soapbox
Hacksaw
Say hello to my 2 x 4
Kim Jong Il reported dead
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/s...ies/52058036/1
Bets on how long the son lasts, if he is in fact the face of leadership who is paraded out tomorrow?Kim's death was announced Monday by the state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.
Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but he had appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media. The communist country's "Dear Leader" — reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine — was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease...
This will either be big news and big change over the next few weeks/months or just another transition in the hermit kingdom. S. Korea's stocks fell 5% already on the news, and their government is holding emergency meetings. Tensions are going to be high for some time, and the potential for a mis-step that leads to a localized or large conflict will be much higher than normal as North Korea conducts its peaceful or not so peaceful power transition.
Anything is now possible. Anything could happen in North Korea
one of the few, if not the only UK expert on North Korea (DPRK) Aidan Foster-Carter has written this:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-new-dawn.html
Which opens with:And ends with:Anything is now possible. The range of possible scenarios runs from benign to apocalyptic. The world wants North Korea to come in from the cold and embrace peace and reform. That seems unlikely, alas. The Kim regime is heavily invested in an avowed military-first policy, and in continuity – despite marching down a cul-de-sac. The mighty Korean People's Army (KPA), whose clout grew under Kim Jong-il, has much to lose from any outbreak of peace.If conflict returns it is unlikely to be a 'small war'.Anything could happen in North Korea. For now the rest of the world can do little more than watch, hoping that a bad situation does not become worse. To that end, discreet consultation between Seoul, Washington and Beijing is essential. But don't expect to hear about it.
davidbfpo
I wonder if anything will change.
But who knows?
Intelligence on North Korea: expecting to fail
It has been interesting to read the commentaries on the supposed intelligence failure over the North Korean leadership moves, particularly since one SWJ Blog piece refers to the lack of contact with non-senior staff.
was this a failure as such or rather just a demonstration of the limitations surrounding the gathering of intelligence about this secretive and reclusive country?BBC News:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16287506There was good 'strategic' intelligence on the fact that Kim was ill, had been for a while, and would likely not survive very long. But there was poor 'tactical' intelligence as to when, exactly, he was going to die...
davidbfpo
North Korea: Kim Jong Il Dead at Age 69
North Korea: Kim Jong Il Dead at Age 69
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North Korean State Collaspe-The next Small War?
This has been a topic constantly discussed since Kim-Jong-Il departed this world for that great land of cognac, women, and Hollywood movies in the sky about a week ago. However, with Kim’s passing the question of whether the DPRK that he and the ruling clique has presided over with an iron fist will be able to stand up? Despite what some analysts in the media say about the unlikelihood of the DPRK collapsing, I find that at least on paper the possibility is very likely.
North Korea is a nation that ranks in the bottom 5 or so among states in the world in terms overall quality of life and livability for its citizen’s, alongside
places like Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Congo . As large sections of the North Korean population are starving and a min of upwards of 1 million+ people have died in a famine that has plagued the country since the mid-1990. The famine was brought on by a mixture of the collapse of the North’s patron power the USSR at the beginning of that decade, along with other Warsaw Pact governments that the Kim regime had close relationships with, a strong reluctance to reform on the part of the DPRK’s govt, and just general incompetence & corruption.
Since then the North’s infrastructure, health, education & welfare system has completely ceased to exist. The DPRK also basically has economy or exports to speak of except selling weapons & technology to other rogue states like Iran and Syria (including information & assets used to create WMD). Other illicit exports of the North include the manufacturing and distribution of drugs to overseas markets like meth and heroin, along with other activities like counterfeiting currency. For instance, North Korean diplomats overseas basically function as moneymakers for the regime, and many have been caught dealing drugs, knockoff goods, or in automobile theft rings.
North Korea also ranks at the top as the world’s most oppressive state, with the Kim family regime actually making into the totalitarian rankings in history alongside such governments like Nazi Germany, Stalinist Soviet Union, and Maoist China. The North Korean regime runs a highly complex, massive, and sophisticated secret police network that has reach both inside and outside the country that systematically targets dissidents with a wide variety of methods. In North Korea one can be thrown in prison or even killed for owning something(sometimes the individual’s extended family as well) like a cell phone , or listening to foreign music.
Additionally, the DPRK runs a sizeable system of labor and concentration camps where those imprisoned are held under extremely harsh conditions, denied of adequate food, shelter, and clothing and are virtually worked to death or eventually killed over by camp guards. Not to mention running a cult of personality system in which the Kim family leaders like Kim Jong-Il, his son, and his father are revered as a almighty Gods. All while resisting even economic reforms like those seen in neighboring China.
Like mentioned above the DPRK government spends virtually all resources and money the country has on the armed forces under the “Songun” or strong military policy or luxuries for the Kim Family and related elite, at the expense of the rest of society. The North Korean government by some estimates is reputed to spend something like 50+% of its budget on the military. The DPRK has also pursued a very well-known WMD program over the year that includes a modest nuclear arsenal since 2006 and a large chemical and biological program as well.
With all of this being said, compared to the South of Korea the North obviously doesn’t register on the charts. The ROK has a stable democratic political system, which has existed in full for the past 20 or so years and is relatively uncorrupt overall. Individuals can openly criticize, the government, its leaders, and more without fear of imprisonment. The South’s economy is advanced and state of the art and delivers a wide range of services and opportunities to its citizens, has a very high development rate, along with the fact that numerous South Korean conglomerates like Hyundai, KIA, and other has made the country a major exporting power. South Korean society also provides first world standards of living for its population, with the nation’s education and infrastructure system ranking amongst the best in the world, even surpassing western countries like the US, UK, and France in these areas.
South Korea has also become a major regional military power in recent years possessing a large force that is regarded as one of the most professional and best equipped in the world. It has been estimated by some that if North Korea were to attack the South now and days the DPRK would be handily defeated even without US assistance.
Now after my lengthy look at North Korea, does anyone else here think that the DPRK could completely collapse one day in the coming years. I mean given when compared to every other country in Asia, esp it’s geographical and cultural counterpart South Korea and increasingly how many Northerner’s are becoming aware of how well off the former is I think it’s certainly possible at least on paper.
I know people on here who are more familiar then I know in terms of what plans there are to deal with the collapse of the DPRK etc. However, from a foreign & defense policy standpoint I figure that since the war in Iraq has ended, this has to be one of the top priorities and in South Korean circles has been mentioned as something that is not if but when. Spefically, since the North has a huge( if antiquted) military and has WMDS too. And especially, since the North appears to far gone to actually reform at this point.
If there are any thoughts on North Korean state collaspe I would like to hear them.
Dominoes falling lead to change?
Kevin23 asked:Yes, only if China (PRC) was to dramatically change..... does anyone else here think that the DPRK could completely collapse one day in the coming years?
I have only considered what happened in Eastern Europe, with the sudden, incremental collapse of the Warsaw Pact - which started in Hungary and a decision on allowing holidaying East Germans to leave for West Germany. Self-doubt certainly existed within parts of the regimes in power, some independent groups notably the church and the USSR's refusal to support coercion. None of these factors apply in North Korea.
We simply know so little about the internal factors at play in North Korea no-one I venture can predict the future.
davidbfpo
Also, though there was some diversity among the Eastern European and even the Warsaw Pact member nations, their governments were generally imposed by a foreign government to a far greater degree than was the DPRK’s (note that I’m not saying that the Soviets didn’t play rough between 1945 and 1950; the U.S.’s hands aren’t entirely clean there, either, but I’m kind of getting off track) and some of them qualified as satellite states in a way that the DPRK doesn’t (I think a decent comparison for the current situation between China and North Korea is USSR/Cuba and not USSR/Czechoslovakia).
*accuratelyWe simply know so little about the internal factors at play in North Korea no-one I venture can predict the future.
If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)
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