What Are You Currently Reading? 2012

[Old Eagle]

Daniel Kahneman's latest on why it's so hard to reach correct conclusions. Spoiler alert -- we're hard-wired to fail.

This isn't a military book in the classical sense, but it provides important lessons on decision-making. Kahneman explains that the brain has two systems for processing thought: the fast, very basic system one, and the more deliberate, critical, analytical system two. Forcing system two to kick in and work appears to be a challenge. He also ties together other contributors in the field: Gilbert, Taleb, Tetlock, etc.

I plan to use the book in one of my analysis classes. So far, I continue to be amazed at how students who acknowledge the requirement for better analytical thought revert to the comfort zone in their own analyses. I am therefore open to suggestions.

[JMA]

Daniel Kahneman's latest on why it's so hard to reach correct conclusions. Spoiler alert -- we're hard-wired to fail.

This isn't a military book in the classical sense, but it provides important lessons on decision-making. Kahneman explains that the brain has two systems for processing thought: the fast, very basic system one, and the more deliberate, critical, analytical system two. Forcing system two to kick in and work appears to be a challenge. He also ties together other contributors in the field: Gilbert, Taleb, Tetlock, etc.

I plan to use the book in one of my analysis classes. So far, I continue to be amazed at how students who acknowledge the requirement for better analytical thought revert to the comfort zone in their own analyses. I am therefore open to suggestions.

Kahneman was discussed in this thread

It referred to his article: Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence

[Backwards Observer]

Daniel Kahneman's latest on why it's so hard to reach correct conclusions. Spoiler alert -- we're hard-wired to fail.

Thanks for the book suggestion. I'm about halfway through; it made me drop my crack pipe a couple of times. An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur?

[Backwards Observer]

Two recommended in comments by SWC member, Mark O'Neill:

- The Counterinsurgency Era: U.S. Doctrine and Performance - 1950 to the Present by Douglas S. Blaufarb. (1977)

- Deadly Paradigms: The Failure of U.S. Counterinsurgency Policy by D. Michael Shafer. (1988)

Going by their respective introductions, look to be heavy going.

The Counterinsurgency Era - Amazon

Deadly Paradigms - Amazon

[Bill Moore]

http://www.amazon.com/Sandstorm-Liby.../dp/159420506X

This is not, nor does it claim to be, the definitive history of the Libyan Revolution. Obviously the history of the revolution is still unfolding before our eyes, but this book provides a fascinating view of the war from the revolutionaries without romanizing the rebels. Lindsey follows five or more characters throughout the revolution that range from educated liberals with visions of modern democracy, to Islamists with visions of Sharia, and ordinary citizens who were tired of being oppressed by a brutal dictator. I was very familiar with Qadaffi's support for international terrorism, but had little insight on the crimes he committed against his own people to include his Maoist purge to purify their society.

this book provides great insights into the struggles of fighter, and although most were not trained at all and fought very poorly, they still demonstrated savvy in some areas. Of interest will be the great insights in how the rebels gathered and passed intelligence to NATO to facilitate targeting, how they used the internet, and how they described in some detail the support provided by British and French SOF.

Throughout the book the author provides a detailed description of the Regime and Qadaffi's behavior which was nothing less than bizzare. It details his support for global terrorism and revolution to include his extensive support for the IRA. Yet in another twist it describes a relatively effective deradicalization program that Libya implemented in their prisons that was considered a model, and yet at the same time Qadaffi's security forces conducted a massive slaughter of prisoners in one of the prisons that further inflammed the anger of the people that eventually exploded into a revolution.

Highly recommended read (easy and quick read) to gain the personal insights of those involved. The author correctly points out in her last chapter that there will be many challenges ahead and the chances for peace, modernization, etc. are fairly low.

For those who didn't follow terrorism trends prior to 9/11 this book will also serve as excellent introduction to the state sponsored terrorism so common in the 70's and 80's. The further back you can see the further forward you'll be able to see.

[ganulv]

For those who didn't follow terrorism trends prior to 9/11 this book will also serve as excellent introduction to the state sponsored terrorism so common in the 70's and 80's. The further back you can see the further forward you'll be able to see.

In the same vein I would recommend Olivier Assayas’s Carlos. The 140 minute movie version is good, the 330 minute three-parter is even better. [LINK 1, 2, 3]

[carl]

There is an old book called The Terror Network by Claire Sterling that goes over that ground too.

On a different note, I just finished a book called The Unknown Battle of Midway by Alvin Kernan. I've read several Midway books but this one does the best job in clearly explaining what the American carrier aircraft did and where they went. It is a short book and very well written. One thing made clear is we were very very lucky.

[Backwards Observer]

Starting two on SEAsia, look interesting:

The vast crescent of British-ruled territories from India down to Singapore appeared in the early stages of the Second World War a massive asset in the war with Germany, providing huge quantities of soldiers and raw materials and key part of an impregnable global network denied to the Nazis. Within a few weeks in 1941-2 a Japanese invasion had destroyed all this, almost effortlessly taking the impregnable fortress' of Singapore with its 80,000 strong garrison, and sweeping through South and Southeast Asia to the frontier of India itself.

This revolutionary, absolutely gripping book brings to life the entire experience of South and Southeast Asia in this extraordinary period, telling the story from an Indian, Burmese, Chinese or Malay perspective as much as from that of the British or Japanese. Effectively it is the story of the birth of modern South and Southeast Asia and the hopes and fears of the dozens of forgotten armies' marching through the jungle battlefields, so many dying for causes swept away by the reality that emerged in 1945. Even as the British successfully fought back in the bloodiest battles in South and Southeast Asia's history, there was no going back to colonial rule.(amazon blurb)

Forgotten Armies - Britain's Asian Empire and the War With Japan by Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper - Amazon

Guardian uk review - 1.22.2005

NY times review - 4.17.2005

historynet review - 6.12.2006

+++

In September 1945, after the fall of the atomic bomb--and with it, the Japanese empire--Asia was dominated by the British. Governing a vast crescent of land that stretched from India through Burma and down to Singapore, and with troops occupying the French and Dutch colonies in southern Vietnam and Indonesia, Britain's imperial might had never seemed stronger.

Yet within a few violent years, British power in the region would crumble, and myriad independent nations would struggle into existence. Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper show how World War II never really ended in these ravaged Asian lands but instead continued in bloody civil wars, anti-colonial insurrections, and inter-communal massacres. These years became the most formative in modern Asian history, as Western imperialism vied with nascent nationalist and communist revolutionaries for political control.

Forgotten Wars, a sequel to the authors' acclaimed Forgotten Armies, is a panoramic account of the bitter wars of the end of empire, seen not only through the eyes of the fighters, but also through the personal stories of ordinary people: the poor and bewildered caught up in India's Hindu-Muslim massacres; the peasant farmers ravaged by warfare between British forces and revolutionaries in Malaya; the Burmese minorities devastated by separatist revolt. Throughout, we are given a stunning portrait of societies poised between the hope of independence and the fear of strife. Forgotten Wars vividly brings to life the inescapable conflicts and manifold dramas that shaped today's Asia.(amazon blurb)

Forgotten Wars - Freedom and Revolution in South East Asia by Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper - Amazon

Guardian uk review - 3.4.2007

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The Sun Never Sweats (Spinal Tap) - Youtube