Educate me if you can, I have seen quite a bit of effort by the modeling and simulation community (and resources applied to the same) in an attempt to come to grips with insurgents, terrorists, and non-combatants (local population). To me, human behavior - cultural intelligence is one part (not the only) – is the key to winning Small Wars.

I remain unconvinced that the M&S community will ever produce an intelligence agent capable of aiding our efforts here. Now the “buzz” word is “enemy intentions”. Really now, can we model this – I don’t believe the murderous thugs actually know their own intentions on a week to week basis. More like “commander’s intent” – decentralized operations and taking advantage of targets and events of opportunity.

IMHO, the money spent here would be better utilzed at the "boots on the ground" level - tactical needs for the troops and creating a "tactical" interagency capability.

Am I missing something? Please comment...