Egypt 2007-2016 (merged thread)

[slapout9]

Moderator's Note

Egypt features in many SWC threads and what is happening today deserves a new thread. A number of posts on another thread 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?' have been moved here, so this opening thread will not appear first (ends).

The situation in Egypt may be the most current experiment on Military Government, we will have to see how it turns out. IMO it can be a good thing if done in accords with the original concept as was presented in the USMC Small Wars Manual.

[davidbfpo]

Egypt features in many SWC threads and what is happening today deserves a new thread. A number of posts on another thread 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?' have been moved here, so this opening thread will not appear first.

Previous, recent threads of value are:

1) Arab armies and the 'Arab Spring' http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17859

2) Arab Spring Phase 3? http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17692

3) Egypt's "Spring" Revolution (now closed) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=12371

4) The transformation of the Arab World (which looks at the wider impact and the impact on AQ) http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16634

[Firn]

I was going to write the same thing. They seem to have decided to keep a relative low profile - if it can be called that way - and avoided the usual arrests.

We will see.

[Dayuhan]

A good thing? No. A necessary thing, maybe, in some very rare circumstances, if the people to be governed accept it.

Anybody who starts thinking a military government would be a good thing for somebody else needs to be hit hard on the head before he has any chance to put that idea into action.

[Firn]

I was going to write the same thing. They seem to have decided to keep a relative low profile - if it can be called that way - and avoided the usual arrests.

We will see.

I was completely right, they only took a great deal of key members into costudy. Morsi is still a free man, so far.

Egypt's new military rulers have arrested the Muslim Brotherhood's supreme leader, security sources say, and issued warrants for up to 300 other members hours after ousting the elected president, Mohamed Morsi, and taking him and his aides into military custody.

The day after a momentous night in Cairo has revealed the full extent of the military overthrow, with key support bases of the Muslim Brotherhood, including television stations, closed down or raided.

Security officials told the Associated Press and Reuters that the Brotherhood's supreme leader, Mohammed Badie, was arrested in a coastal city near the Libyan border on Wednesday and flown to Cairo in a military helicopter.

The Brotherhood spokesman Gehad el-Haddad said he could not confirm the reports because the group had lost their lines of communication to Badie.

@jmm99: Cui bono indeed?

Morsi certainly was elected in a quite democratic fashion but selected to ignore a good deal of that democracy as a sort of fading fashion. Shame on him. Religion alone does in any case not sort out the economy of a country. It is of course impossible to tell how much the last years in government have weakened the brotherhood and how much strenght they can win from this coup.

[ganulv]

Morsi certainly was elected in a quite democratic fashion but selected to ignore a good deal of that democracy as a sort of fading fashion.

Even so, does that justify removing him from office in an illegal manner? I feel like one of corollaries of adopting a democratic system is accepting that voters are going to make the wrong decision at times.

Religion alone does in any case not sort out the economy of a country.

As painful as it would have been for the people of Egypt to let the Morsi stagnation continue, I have to believe that with enough time many of his supporters would have come to accept exactly what you are saying. (Not all of them would have, admittedly. I’m an American. I know that ideology can blind people to facts. )

Al-Qaeda has been saying for years that democracy will never give an Islamist party the opportunity to succeed. Whatever favors the Egyptian military may have just done for their country’s economy may have been matched by the favors done for Al-Qaeda.

It is of course impossible to tell how much the last years in government have weakened the brotherhood and how much strength they can win from this coup.

I did a short post on my blog [LINK] questioning whether ‘coup’ is the best word for what happened in Egypt. I’m not saying that I know the right word, just that I suspect that coup might not be it.

[slapout9]

I don't have a copy and would love to know.

As far as I can see, military coup is just another option for a bloodless transition. It depends on the motivation of the military. I don't think it needs to be automatically and arbitrarily attacked.

I define good as being better than a decent into internal Civil War. The Army appears to be trying to preserve the primarry purpose of Government which is to Protect and Provide the

jmm99 has provided several references for the manual. Chapter 13 on Military Government appears to be what the Egyptian Army is in so far as they are being selective as to who and what is replaced until elections can be established.

[Madhu]

I prefer to think that, in other parts of the world, military men think the same way.

IMO, the "mirroring" attitude of the American military--in particular, the Army--caused a lot of problems in "AfPak", especially with regard to old relationships from the time of working with the Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies against the Soviets. Assuming the military in other parts of the world think the same is problematic.

Future historians studying this aspect of the American military, at least circa 2001-2005 or so, are going to have a field day of it, I predict.

But each situation is different and Egypt is not Pakistan. I don't know the Egyptian situation very well so I should probably stick to commenting on South Asia.

This sort of thing always interests me though:

Egypt’s ruling military has warned against any interference in its murky economic empire amid a burgeoning power struggle with Islamists who control parliament, state media reported March 28.

The warning comes as the military prepares to hand power to a civilian leader when presidential elections end in June, and as the dominant Islamist Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) pressures the generals to sack the government.

Maj. Gen. Mahmud Nasr, a member of the ruling council, warned that the military “will not allow any interference from anyone in the armed forces’ economic projects,” the official MENA news agency reported.

In the unusually detailed defense of the military’s economic ventures, which include factories and hotels, Nasr said the businesses’ annual revenues were 1.2 billion Egyptian pounds ($198 million).

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...ness-Interests

I have no friggin' idea really. As others have said, we shall see. Perhaps it is a genuinely popular coup that will lead to some more inclusive government and is one step on the road to better governance, maybe it's just one more chapter of the military behind the scenes from the 1950's onward. When does the clock start on the goodness of enlightened militaries stepping in when needed?

[davidbfpo]

Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, is always worth reading and he has a list of items to read:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...read-on-egypt/

The penultimate passage from a good Egyptian account:

Still, there is something utterly inspiring in seeing people rise up once more and show that they will not be taken for granted or intimidated. Of course, one has to wait and keep a vigilant eye before any final conclusions can be made about where Egypt is going.

Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...pt-bsabry.html

[jmm99]

Laura Dean is a freelance journalist living and working in Egypt and sometimes other parts of the Middle East and North Africa. She grew up in Bahrain and graduated from the University of Chicago. Previously, she worked as an election observer with the Carter Center in Tunisia and Libya and served on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington, DC.

Over the last week, she's posted a dairy of events in Egypt:

Cairo Diary, June 30: An Introduction and the Scene at Tahrir

Cairo Diary, July 1: The Day After Tamarod

Cairo Diary, July 2: Brotherhood and Defiance

Cairo Diary, July 3: Praying We Don’t Get Fooled Again

Cairo Diary, July 4: The First Day of the Rest of Egypt’s Life

Cairo Diary, July 5: “Friday of Rejection”—and Violence

Cairo Diary, July 6: A New Prime Minister, Maybe

Cairo Diary, July 7: An Outside Perspective

From the 6 Jul piece, (IMO) an astute observation:

During the Parliamentary elections in 2011, I worked as an election observer in the Northern governorate of Beheira and Marsa Matrouh on the Libyan border. In both places, I visited many small towns and hamlets. The only political parties I saw with any consistency there were the Freedom and Justice Party (the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm) and the Salafi Noor Party. They had the numbers, they were on the streets. At the time, those who later came to become the opposition said the Islamists had an unfair advantage: they had been organized for years, these people said; they had existing charity networks; they had money that allowed them to set up cheap markets to sell meat and other staples at cut rates; they had a natural networks in their mosques, many of which encouraged their congregations to vote for Islamic parties.

The answer, then as now, is suck it up: if the opposition wants to get through to people in a meaningful way, they too must go to the villages and organize.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Via FP Blog a CNN interview of General Dempsey, US CJCS, which includes this portion on the situation in Eygpt:

CROWLEY: When you look at what's going on the streets of Egypt and has been for the past several days, what is the U.S. thinking that?

DEMPSEY: Well, at one level, our stake is we probably have 60,000 or so dual-American-Egyptian citizens in Egypt. And we have several hundred official American citizens serving in Egypt. But more broadly, look, Egypt is a great country. It's a cornerstone of the Middle East. It's got an incredible history and culture and the world needs Egypt to be stable.

CROWLEY: But they don't want their government in anymore.

DEMPSEY: Well, you know, I - again, that's for them to decide. And I really mean that sincerely. And incidentally, I mean, as a student of that part of the world, as someone who lived there for most of the last 10 years, not in Egypt but in the region, I mean, what we're seeing is that democracy takes a while to stick.

Link:http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/20...k-temporarily/

[Bill Moore]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...red-floor.html

Islamic lynch mob waving Al Qaeda banners throw terrified teenage boy off 20ft ledge before beating him to death. Teenagers thrown off rooftop ledge by Morsi supporters in Alexandria, were celebrating ousting of Islamist leader when they met pro-Morsi mob. One of the members of the mob were carrying an al-Qaeda flag. Two boys are thrown off the ledge and beaten as they lie motionless. One of them, aged 19, was killed, according to local media.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...320932698.html

Massacre in Cairo deepens Egypt crisis


At least 51 dead after gunmen open fire at Muslim Brotherhood protest against military coup in Egyptian capital

.

[jmm99]

NYT, Video of Army Shooting Islamists in Cairo Stokes Anger (8 Jul 2013). 16 vid clips; limited editorial comment.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Dr Omar Ashour's column reveals the contest in Egypt is not new, it happened in 1954 too (partly cited below) and then looks at today's scene:http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...by-omar-ashour

Egypt’s crisis has been called the worst in its history. But in fact, it bears a striking resemblance to a previous episode, almost 60 years ago.

On February 28, 1954, almost a million protesters besieged Cairo’s Abdin Palace, then being used by Gamal Abdel Nasser and other leaders of the July 1952 coup. The protesters’ main demands were the restoration of Egypt’s fragile democratic institutions, the release of political prisoners, and the army’s return to its barracks.

The two-month crisis of 1954 was sparked by the removal of Egypt’s president, General Mohammed Naguib, by Nasser and his faction. As in 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood was at the center of events, mobilizing on the side of the deposed Naguib. But, following Nasser’s promises to hold elections in June 1954 and to hand over power to civilians, one of the Brotherhood’s leaders, Abd al-Qadr Audeh, dismissed the protesters.

Nasser’s promises were empty....

He concludes that:

Any resolution to the current crisis should aim to save the remnants of the only gains made so far in Egypt’s revolution: basic freedoms and democratic institutions. That will require ceasing violent repression, stopping propaganda and incitement in pro-junta media and at pro-Morsi protests, and trust-building measures.

A credible guarantor, possibly the Obama administration, needs to be heavily involved in this process, given the absence of trust among Egypt’s main political actors (indeed, every institution is politicized and willing to cheat if it can). Finally, a referendum on any final deal is essential.

In short, the credibility of ballots and democracy must be restored in Egypt (and throughout the region); bullets and violence must not be allowed to rule.

From my armchair I cannot see the USA taking on such a role, which cannot be private.

There is a main thread on the current situation: Egypt: has the Spring ended? So a merger one day, but this article warrants it's own thread today.

[davidbfpo]

Sometimes one gets to read and contrast the depth and accuracy of reports on Egypt. Judge for yourself.

BBC analyst:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23493214

A short interview with Joel Beinin, Professor of History of the Middle East at Stanford University (California):http://www.opendemocracy.net/joel-be...tist-coalition

A longer interview with Sameh Naguib, a leading member of the Revolutionary Socialists in Egypt (who don't appear to be that revolutionary):http://www.opendemocracy.net/sameh-n...ing-your-enemy

[TheCurmudgeon]

I started with an idea, that a military, any military, is sworn to defend ( and feels a real duty towards) it citizens.

Now, reality is that whom the military considers "citizens" is a cultural matter. Further, any military, particularly in those parts of the world (like Indonesia) where the military is expected to fund its own operations (though various means) may be divided between the military's best interest and the citizen's best interest, may present a natural wedge between the military and the citizen. Despite this most military's feel duty bound to protect and defend the civilian population.

Where there is a total break down of civilian rule the military feels compelled, based on their oath, to step in. Is this so wrong? Should we not find ways to support this? If "yes" what are the parameters of our support?

[davidbfpo]

Curmudgeon,

Your last post appears to resume the discussion on another thread 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?' :http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=18422

So mindful of this declared pondering, I think the question you pose is best answered on the other thread.

[davidbfpo]

Dr Omar Ashour's latest column, which examines broadly what could happen as the whirlwind of events spins on:http://slink.eu/xx

Note a number of comments on the current situation in Egypt, with possible implications beyond, are on two other threads: 'Egypt and the Treaty of Westphalia' and 'Can Military Governments be a good thing (for a while)?'.

If you want to read more then Shashank Joshi provides a pointer:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...sacre-edition/

[jcustis]

If nothing else, the Arab Spring will go dormant in Egypt because the military will come to the fore (albeit reluctantly) for the next twelve months as it re-examines what happened in the past twelve.

Unrest is all around bad for the military and its economic interests, so I can't imagine it will rush headlong into a transition of the type being advocated/instigated by the US Govt. and current administration. It is going to develop policy, get on message, and move forward deliberately.