Egypt 2007-2016 (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

Dr Omar Ashour, Exeter University, always gives a valuable insight into his home country and this time seeks to answer:

what explains the decision to stage a coup and the repressive follow-up? Political science can offer a few explanations.

Just in case you forgot or preferred to not know:

in the post-coup environment, the levels of repression and bloodshed are unprecedented in its modern history.

The number of victims killed by security forces in less than 7 hours on August 14 in Raba al-Adawiyya and al-Nahda Squares exceeds the number of victims of Muammar al-Qaddafi's two-day massacre in Abu Selim Prison in June 1996 (1269 victims), and Napoleon's massacre in the process of storming al-Azhar Mosque in 1799 (around 600 deaths). The Abu Zaabal massacre [Ar] in which 38 anti-coup political prisoners were killed inside a prison transport van, exceeded the number of victims of a 1957 massacre committed by Nasser's security forces in Tora prison.

Link:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...113526674.html

As others have asked - will Egypt follow the Algerian way?

[carl]

The New York Times reported this morning that the Egyptian gov has started to sieze money, assets and land from people it perceives as Brotherhood supporters. This is in my view a very smart small war move, take their money. No matter how stout their hearts are, they cannot fight effectively without money.

That leads me to conclude that the Egyptian army may know what it's about when it comes to small war fighting. Then it occurred to me that the Algerian army and gov won a very hard small war back in the 90s. So I got a question for all but especially JCustis, how effective have Arab armies been at fighting small wars and suppresing insurgencies over the years? Do we study their efforts?

[Dayuhan]

the Egyptian gov has started to sieze money, assets and land from people it perceives as Brotherhood supporters.

Would there be any sort of due process involved in that?

Sounds like an excellent way to get your hands on some money, assets, or land, or to get a bit of revenge on someone you don't like. Call him a Brotherhood supporter and take all his stuff. How effective that proves to be as a COIN technique remains to be seen.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Londonistani via Twitter to this review of why:

The revolutionaries lost this opportunity, and lost it because they failed to recognize the limits of their power.

Link:http://arabist.net/blog/2014/1/26/f6...rrm#commenting

[Dayuhan]

Interesting to see where this goes...

http://www.zawya.com/story/Egyptian_...emailmarketing

Egyptian court sentences 529 Brotherhood members to death

An Egyptian court sentenced 529 members of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood to death for murder and other offences on Monday, in a sharp escalation of a crackdown on the movement that is likely to fuel instability.

Family members stood outside the courthouse screaming after the verdict - the biggest mass death sentence handed out in Egypt's modern history, defence lawyers said.

[davidbfpo]

A commentary by a retired Indian intelligence officer and now a public commentator:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...es-brotherhood

I'd missed this detail in earlier coverage:

The strangest feature of these trials was that many of the accused, who were sentenced, were not even in custody....a Minya court, on 27 April, sentenced to death Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie and 682 others for killing or attempting to murder police officers during the August 2013 disturbances....The New York Times said (28 April) that only one police officer was killed for which 683 were sentenced to death. The same Minya judge had reversed 492 of the 529 death sentences passed last month and commuted them to life except for 37.

[Bob's World]

This is a move that is unlikely to end well

Injustice under the rule of law targeting a specific population is historically one of the most powerful drivers of insurgency.

A wise judge would suspend the sentence and place all onto a form of probation that allows them legal means to reform their approach to addressing their grievances and avoid the hangman's noose.

Maybe hang one or two who are clearly guilty of capital crimes to send a clear message to all.

Otherwise, this a bit too much like what went down in revolutionary France...