Israel is mainly concerned right now about the possibility that violence in Sinai − where the Egyptian army has long had trouble coping with radical Islamist groups − will spill over into attacks on its territory. But as usual, it’s also preoccupied with the question of whether its intelligence agencies were blindsided.
In this regard, sections of Military Intelligence chief Aviv Kochavi’s speech to the Herzliya Conference four months ago have recently been republished. The speech shows the Israel Defense Forces had long thought Morsi’s government was unstable, and that a severe crisis in Egypt could topple it. That certainly wasn’t a precise forecast of what happened, but expecting any intelligence agency to provide such a forecast is unrealistic.
If the Egyptians themselves didn’t foresee the speed and determination of Morsi’s ouster, it’s hard to expect Israeli or Western intelligence agencies to do so. The question that should be asked, however, is whether Israeli intelligence had any indications about the specific events of last week.
Who was blind-sided?
Bookmarks