Egypt 2007-2016 (merged thread)

[Madhu]

I prefer to think that, in other parts of the world, military men think the same way.

IMO, the "mirroring" attitude of the American military--in particular, the Army--caused a lot of problems in "AfPak", especially with regard to old relationships from the time of working with the Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies against the Soviets. Assuming the military in other parts of the world think the same is problematic.

Future historians studying this aspect of the American military, at least circa 2001-2005 or so, are going to have a field day of it, I predict.

But each situation is different and Egypt is not Pakistan. I don't know the Egyptian situation very well so I should probably stick to commenting on South Asia.

This sort of thing always interests me though:

Egypt’s ruling military has warned against any interference in its murky economic empire amid a burgeoning power struggle with Islamists who control parliament, state media reported March 28.

The warning comes as the military prepares to hand power to a civilian leader when presidential elections end in June, and as the dominant Islamist Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) pressures the generals to sack the government.

Maj. Gen. Mahmud Nasr, a member of the ruling council, warned that the military “will not allow any interference from anyone in the armed forces’ economic projects,” the official MENA news agency reported.

In the unusually detailed defense of the military’s economic ventures, which include factories and hotels, Nasr said the businesses’ annual revenues were 1.2 billion Egyptian pounds ($198 million).

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...ness-Interests

I have no friggin' idea really. As others have said, we shall see. Perhaps it is a genuinely popular coup that will lead to some more inclusive government and is one step on the road to better governance, maybe it's just one more chapter of the military behind the scenes from the 1950's onward. When does the clock start on the goodness of enlightened militaries stepping in when needed?

[davidbfpo]

Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, is always worth reading and he has a list of items to read:http://shashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2...read-on-egypt/

The penultimate passage from a good Egyptian account:

Still, there is something utterly inspiring in seeing people rise up once more and show that they will not be taken for granted or intimidated. Of course, one has to wait and keep a vigilant eye before any final conclusions can be made about where Egypt is going.

Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...pt-bsabry.html

[jmm99]

Laura Dean is a freelance journalist living and working in Egypt and sometimes other parts of the Middle East and North Africa. She grew up in Bahrain and graduated from the University of Chicago. Previously, she worked as an election observer with the Carter Center in Tunisia and Libya and served on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington, DC.

Over the last week, she's posted a dairy of events in Egypt:

Cairo Diary, June 30: An Introduction and the Scene at Tahrir

Cairo Diary, July 1: The Day After Tamarod

Cairo Diary, July 2: Brotherhood and Defiance

Cairo Diary, July 3: Praying We Don’t Get Fooled Again

Cairo Diary, July 4: The First Day of the Rest of Egypt’s Life

Cairo Diary, July 5: “Friday of Rejection”—and Violence

Cairo Diary, July 6: A New Prime Minister, Maybe

Cairo Diary, July 7: An Outside Perspective

From the 6 Jul piece, (IMO) an astute observation:

During the Parliamentary elections in 2011, I worked as an election observer in the Northern governorate of Beheira and Marsa Matrouh on the Libyan border. In both places, I visited many small towns and hamlets. The only political parties I saw with any consistency there were the Freedom and Justice Party (the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm) and the Salafi Noor Party. They had the numbers, they were on the streets. At the time, those who later came to become the opposition said the Islamists had an unfair advantage: they had been organized for years, these people said; they had existing charity networks; they had money that allowed them to set up cheap markets to sell meat and other staples at cut rates; they had a natural networks in their mosques, many of which encouraged their congregations to vote for Islamic parties.

The answer, then as now, is suck it up: if the opposition wants to get through to people in a meaningful way, they too must go to the villages and organize.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Via FP Blog a CNN interview of General Dempsey, US CJCS, which includes this portion on the situation in Eygpt:

CROWLEY: When you look at what's going on the streets of Egypt and has been for the past several days, what is the U.S. thinking that?

DEMPSEY: Well, at one level, our stake is we probably have 60,000 or so dual-American-Egyptian citizens in Egypt. And we have several hundred official American citizens serving in Egypt. But more broadly, look, Egypt is a great country. It's a cornerstone of the Middle East. It's got an incredible history and culture and the world needs Egypt to be stable.

CROWLEY: But they don't want their government in anymore.

DEMPSEY: Well, you know, I - again, that's for them to decide. And I really mean that sincerely. And incidentally, I mean, as a student of that part of the world, as someone who lived there for most of the last 10 years, not in Egypt but in the region, I mean, what we're seeing is that democracy takes a while to stick.

Link:http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/20...k-temporarily/

[Bill Moore]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...red-floor.html

Islamic lynch mob waving Al Qaeda banners throw terrified teenage boy off 20ft ledge before beating him to death. Teenagers thrown off rooftop ledge by Morsi supporters in Alexandria, were celebrating ousting of Islamist leader when they met pro-Morsi mob. One of the members of the mob were carrying an al-Qaeda flag. Two boys are thrown off the ledge and beaten as they lie motionless. One of them, aged 19, was killed, according to local media.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middle...320932698.html

Massacre in Cairo deepens Egypt crisis


At least 51 dead after gunmen open fire at Muslim Brotherhood protest against military coup in Egyptian capital

.

[jmm99]

NYT, Video of Army Shooting Islamists in Cairo Stokes Anger (8 Jul 2013). 16 vid clips; limited editorial comment.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Two very different commentaries. First from Israel's Haaretz, which ends with:

Israel is mainly concerned right now about the possibility that violence in Sinai − where the Egyptian army has long had trouble coping with radical Islamist groups − will spill over into attacks on its territory. But as usual, it’s also preoccupied with the question of whether its intelligence agencies were blindsided.

In this regard, sections of Military Intelligence chief Aviv Kochavi’s speech to the Herzliya Conference four months ago have recently been republished. The speech shows the Israel Defense Forces had long thought Morsi’s government was unstable, and that a severe crisis in Egypt could topple it. That certainly wasn’t a precise forecast of what happened, but expecting any intelligence agency to provide such a forecast is unrealistic.

If the Egyptians themselves didn’t foresee the speed and determination of Morsi’s ouster, it’s hard to expect Israeli or Western intelligence agencies to do so. The question that should be asked, however, is whether Israeli intelligence had any indications about the specific events of last week.

Link:http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-e...emium-1.534672