Egypt 2007-2016 (merged thread)

[carl]

One thing that seems to be forgotten in all these discussions is the Egyptian Army is not acting alone. There are millions and millions of Egyptians who support their actions. This article says that one of the curious aspects of this support is that the old line liberals, the guys who opposed Mubarak and believe all the things we believe in, are almost 100% behind the army.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...-military.html

This and other things I've read here and there lead me to believe this goes way beyond parliamentary niceties, definition of coups and the bleatings of the flock inside the beltway. This is a life and death thing the resolution of which won't be pretty.

It seems to me that one side views the Muslim Brotherhood as having done their best to stack the deck politically when they reached power, the object of which was to insure they never left power. And it seems to me that the reason they are viewed as having wanted to do this so they could transform Egypt into a thing dominated by one view of religion, theirs. Their opponents don't like this and obviously feel there is no way to stop it short of doing what they have done and are doing.

The Muslim Brotherhood seems to feel that they won fair and square and they are fully justified in putting the President beyond judicial review and all the other things they did or tried to do. They won. So now that they've been kicked out in a highly irregular manner, I am guessing they feel that they've tried the political route and got cheated of their just reward, the authority to reshape Egypt into the Islamic entity they wanted. If they feel that way there is no good reason to go back to open peaceful politics.

So I think it may be probable that both sides feel the other side is cheated them, is going to make Egypt into something they will not abide, is not to be trusted and must be stopped, however. If that is the case (and are the musings of somebody who only knows one word of Arabic-habibi) there will be no option other than fighting it out and crushing the opposition. This may get very bad.

It also is may be a lot bigger than Egypt. Maybe this is a reflection of the fight in the Arab/Muslim world between the secular and takfiri. If that be the case, and since it is taking place in the biggest Arab country of them all, it will have ramifications far beyond Egypt. It seems the oil states may be viewing it that way considering the money they have been pouring in on the side of the Egyptian Army.

God pity the Egyptians.

[Bob's World]

"Arab Spring" is another overly vague label that confuses more than it helps.

The people of the greater middle east have been attempting to overcome and force evolution on local and foreign regimes affecting the governance over their lives for generations. In the modern era to push back the Ottomans, Europeans and ultimately, Americans, began in 1905. Turkey and Iran made major advances early, but WWI, and the replacement of the Ottomans by European powers placed such movements back into check. As did US led Cold War operations.

Egypt is but one of many nations who will struggle for generations to get to what works for them. Best thing we can do is be patient, avoid excessive interference or manipulation, and also maintain an open mind to work equally with every version/flavor of governance that is likely to emerge from all of this.

We need to be careful of setting precedence that will tie our hands when KSA or Jordan, or other close allies finally get caught up in this inevitable cycle. Our doctrine and instinct is to weigh in to force stability or to shape things to our current desires. We need to guard against those instincts.

[jcustis]

So I think it may be probable that both sides feel the other side is cheated them, is going to make Egypt into something they will not abide, is not to be trusted and must be stopped, however. If that is the case (and are the musings of somebody who only knows one word of Arabic-habibi) there will be no option other than fighting it out and crushing the opposition. This may get very bad.

It also is may be a lot bigger than Egypt. Maybe this is a reflection of the fight in the Arab/Muslim world between the secular and takfiri. If that be the case, and since it is taking place in the biggest Arab country of them all, it will have ramifications far beyond Egypt. It seems the oil states may be viewing it that way considering the money they have been pouring in on the side of the Egyptian Army.

My current job pretty much calls for me to understand the workings (.mil and .gov) of one country: Egypt. I am fortunate in that it is the first time in my career where I can become fully invested in a pretty straightforward task. I am deep into a constant review of profiles, analyses, commentary, and breaking news, and I still do not know anything near what I should, but from what I have digested the past four weeks I think the future is fairly positive.

The strong secular traditions, and liberal tendencies that resonate within Egypt are indeed experiencing significant shifts that seem to be nudged further along by the military. There isn't a lot that suggests the military wants to play kingmaker, and Bob is right to caution that our policy needs to tread carefully and not follow the standard line. The current administration is already in a Catch-22 of sorts, and sometimes the best thing to do is to let things settle and shake out rather than rushing headlong into another policy cesspool.

We can pick up a few clues of the nature of the response, from the footage and stills that are out there of the crack down. One specific one that comes to mind are the sequence of pics of the armored 4-wheel vehicle spilling off of the 4-story overpass. The aftermath pics show a policeman lying on his side, apparently deceased. Around him are at least a dozen expended 37mm tear gas casings that were fired by policemen who responded to the scene. Perhaps they weren't outfitted with anything more than less-lethal tools (already a positive for the perception of police response), but the fact that the scene is not littered with 7.62mm shell cases tells another story as well.

It will be some months and this situation may continue to simmer for longer while the military assumes a more hands-on role in the way ahead for Egypt, but I don't see it approaching a degree of chaos like much of Syria. The people who voted the MB in seem to have been riding on a wave of anti-Mubarak sentiment (much like the Tea Party adherents in the US), but many of them clearly realized that Mr. Morsi was not able to produce expected results.

I can't say whether those expectations were unreasonable, but the next guy who make sit to the top to govern will have learned a very valuable lesson.

[carl]

jcustis:

What % of people who voted for Morsi do you guess feel some buyers regret? And how much do you think is because of disappointment with the economy and how much because they were afraid of the way things were developing politically?

[jcustis]

I don't know about buyer's remorse--there's some for sure--as much as people are distancing themselves from an organization that is going to start laying low lest it draw detentions, arrests, etc.

Cairo and its immediate neighborhoods are what, 20 million people? That many people were not on the street after Eid al-Fitr's end.

The narrative the MB is using is unique when you think about it. Notice the deliberate use of "anti-coup" verbiage on protesters' signs, rather than "Morsi supporter". They seem to be paying attention to "optics" (I hate that word.

[carl]

Do you think it might go the way of Algeria, sort of? I know the people and the geography are vastly different but what I mean is going the way of Algeria in the sense of the Islamists who lost their power going the insurgency route.

[jcustis]

Perhaps. I do not fully understand their agenda or allegiances, but there are militants in the Sinai who give the security apparatus problems. Cairo is different terrain though.
The Mubarak regime had a significant apparatus to watch and control those discontents, so I think it would be hard for any hardline, radical opponents to take action without it ratcheting up to pretty open conflicy very quickly. Egypt is not some burgeoning state. Its security forces would be fairly capable of controlling a critical situation unless you're talking about a very wide sort of insurgency, which I do not see this expanding to.

I will say this though...Egypt's current state of affairs is a complex problem and the issues are not black and white. What's even more interesting is the fact that you won't be able to pull tribal identity out of the average man on the street like you might an Afghan farmer from Helmand or Khandahar.