Porch shines a torch on COIN

[Dayuhan]

That makes sense, not sure people are changing, but their perceptions and values are. This seems to be very much what happened during the Arab Spring. The people lost their fear of the government and security forces.

I think changes in perceptions and values do change people. I can think of few things that change a person so thoroughly as self-belief, and the conviction that victory is possible.

I do think it is important to note that for this work the government either must lose control of its coercive security forces, or the people have the means to defend themselves.

This is another key reason why I think lessons drawn from wars of colonial conquest have limited applicability to wars fought in support of a foreign government. The colonial conqueror brings an army with him and can be reasonably sure of sustaining its loyalty. The indigenous government has to draw an army from the same populace it governs. When the populace stands up and stops following orders, the army is looking through its sights at their own people. That doesn't always prove to be a constraint, particularly in the short term, but it's certainly something any government that seeks to compel people to do the government's will has to think about.