Carl, on this one we are in total agreement. I would only add that where we have supported insurgents, they have won when we were sufficiently steadfast. Two examples: Nicaragua - the contras (although it was very close in regard to our being sufficiently steadfast), and Afghanistan in ousting the Taliban.

I would note that one of the statistically significant Factors/dimensions in the studies Manwaring and I have done is External Support to the Insurgents. (It was however significant at the 0.1 level which is not the common cutoff point, that being 0.05.) Still, it is one of the more powerful explanatory dimensions of the SWORD Model.

Cheers

JohnT