You have Mullah Omar on the drone's downlink feed...

[ganulv]

It is today. There are no negotiations occurring today. What do you do today?

Unlike you, I am not certain that factionalization of the Taliban would be good for anyone. The Taliban rose to power because of chaos. So if I have intel leading me to believe that the killing of MO would lead to increased factionalization of the Taliban, I let the moment slip.

If I have intel leading me to believe that there will be an orderly succession and that the next guy would be preferable (define ‘preferable’ as you will), I would have him killed. If I have intel leading me to believe that there will be an orderly succession and that the next guy would be worse (define ‘worse’ as you will), I let the moment slip.

Please don’t replace my above ifs with certainties and ask me what I would do, Carl. I understand that you would kill him.

[carl]

Unlike you, I am not certain that factionalization of the Taliban would be good for anyone. The Taliban rose to power because of chaos. So if I have intel leading me to believe that the killing of MO would lead to increased factionalization of the Taliban, I let the moment slip.

If I have intel leading me to believe that there will be an orderly succession and that the next guy would be preferable (define ‘preferable’ as you will), I would have him killed. If I have intel leading me to believe that there will be an orderly succession and that the next guy would be worse (define ‘worse’ as you will), I let the moment slip.

Please don’t replace my above ifs with certainties and ask me what I would do, Carl. I understand that you would kill him.

Fair enough that you think Taliban & Co breaking up some wouldn't be good. And the Taliban rose to power partly because of chaos. But the situation is different now. There is an extant government in Afghanistan that, for all its faults, that gives an alternative to Taliban & Co., especially for people who don't toe the Taliban line. In the past it was chaos or the Taliban to a large extent. It isn't like that now. So if Taliban & Co were to break up, it would make the current gov relatively stronger, which is good for us.

When you use the phrase "If I have intel...", it seems to me you are saying "If I am fairly certain...". I don't think we can have that. Our human intelligence in this realm seems hopelessly inadequate. Taliban & Co and the ISI run rings around us. It has been my observation that open sources over the years are as good as anything. In this particular scenario, I figure you go with what you got. So to me, MO will never negotiate. Why should a guy who wore the cloak of the prophet and is winning negotiate? It is more likely negotiations would get going with some of Taliban & Co at least if he were gone.

I apologize for my delivery. It was heavy handed.