Mozambique (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

A very short BBC report based on AFP:

One of the victims of the weekend attack was the leader of Monjane village, a local resident told the AFP news agency."They targeted the chief as he had been providing information to the police about the location of al-Shabab in forests," he is quoted as saying.

Then as background it cites a source, which alas is a series of PPT in Portuguese by a UK academic expert on the region:

Recent academic research... found that early members of the group, sometimes also called al-Sunna, were followers of a radical Kenyan preacher who was killed in 2012.His followers moved south and settled in Kibiti in southern Tanzania, near the border with Mozambique.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-44289512

[davidbfpo]

Via a South African newspaper website an article from Mozambique itself, referring to a study (see next paragraph) and the article has more background facts - so worth a read.
Link:https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...mpression=true

Link to the study, which is translated into English and uses the title:

Al Shabaab Mozambique are marginalized youth that create instability for illicit trade of wood, ivory and rubies of their leaders

Link:http://www.verdade.co.mz/tema-de-fundo/35/65831

[davidbfpo]

A South African newspaper article that asks what is going on. Id'd via Twitter where author, Simon Allison points out:

No one has a clue what is driving the violence in northern Mozambique. But mixing Islamist militants, trigger-happy soldiers, vast reserves of natural gas and Erik Prince (of Blackwater infamy) seems like a terrible idea.

It ends with:

Northern Mozambique is a powder keg. Whatever is behind the conflict in the area, there is no doubt that it is a toxic mix. The combination of radical Islamists, American mercenaries, brutal armed groups and trigger-happy soldiers is one we have seen before, in Iraq and Afghanistan and Somalia and Libya, with devastating consequences.Vast quantities of high-grade hydrocarbons won’t help either, nor will a government that is as corrupt as it is dysfunctional. But before anyone can begin to grapple with the problems, they need to understand the nature of the threat. So far, the rumours far outweigh the research.

Link:https://mg.co.za/article/2018-06-22-...ous-insurgency

[davidbfpo]

A short open source paper 'The Uberization of Mozambique's heroin trade' by a known SME, Joseph Hanlon, via LSE, London. His conclusion opens with:

Mozambique is an important heroin transit country, with a heroin trail that goes Afghanistan-Pakistan-Mozambique-South Africa-Europe. An estimated 10-40 tonnes or more of heroin passes through each year. This could be adding $100 million per year in corrupt money to the local economy, and is clearly having an impact on an already corrupted state.The trade seems to be increasing as crackdowns in Kenya and Tanzania are diverting heroin through Mozambique.

Link:http://www.lse.ac.uk/international-d...pers/WP190.pdf

This helps to explain several large seizures of heroin on dhows along the East African coast which appear in the thread for Tanzania.
Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ania-catch-all

It may contribute to the reported insurgency as a corrupted, weak state is likely.

[davidbfpo]

An update on the situation by a local, though not from Mozambique:https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...-cabo-delgado/

[davidbfpo]

A new article from The Wilson Centre (in the USA).

A few passages:

The experts, meanwhile, have warned against repression and advocated for ‘soft measures,’ to little discernable effect. The sum total is discouraging. One observer recently compared Northern Mozambique to Northeastern Nigeria at the beginning of the Boko Haram uprising.

Mozambique may represent a new pattern as well. As Islamist militancy continues to spread across Africa, it is moving beyond hotspot countries—Nigeria, Somalia, Libya, Mali—and their immediate neighborhoods. Violent extremism is now reaching peripheral Muslim communities that, as a small fraction of an overall national population, are ancillary political players and something of an afterthought for the central government.

Link:https://africaupclose.wilsoncenter.o...ent-extremism/

[davidbfpo]

A Reuters report on Tanzanian action, based on official statement(s) and includes this, possibly new information:

Earlier this month, Mozambique put 189 people, including foreigners, on trial on accusations of involvement in Islamist attacks in Cabo Delgado.

Link:https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ta...-idUKKCN1MU0N1

Interesting to note Tanzania has a large natural gas field offshore that awaits investment.