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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Mozambique’s mysterious insurgency

    A South African newspaper article that asks what is going on. Id'd via Twitter where author, Simon Allison points out:
    No one has a clue what is driving the violence in northern Mozambique. But mixing Islamist militants, trigger-happy soldiers, vast reserves of natural gas and Erik Prince (of Blackwater infamy) seems like a terrible idea.
    It ends with:
    Northern Mozambique is a powder keg. Whatever is behind the conflict in the area, there is no doubt that it is a toxic mix. The combination of radical Islamists, American mercenaries, brutal armed groups and trigger-happy soldiers is one we have seen before, in Iraq and Afghanistan and Somalia and Libya, with devastating consequences.Vast quantities of high-grade hydrocarbons won’t help either, nor will a government that is as corrupt as it is dysfunctional. But before anyone can begin to grapple with the problems, they need to understand the nature of the threat. So far, the rumours far outweigh the research.
    Link:https://mg.co.za/article/2018-06-22-...ous-insurgency
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-22-2018 at 10:10 AM. Reason: 21,013v
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  2. #2
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Uberization of Mozambique's heroin trade

    A short open source paper 'The Uberization of Mozambique's heroin trade' by a known SME, Joseph Hanlon, via LSE, London. His conclusion opens with:
    Mozambique is an important heroin transit country, with a heroin trail that goes Afghanistan-Pakistan-Mozambique-South Africa-Europe. An estimated 10-40 tonnes or more of heroin passes through each year. This could be adding $100 million per year in corrupt money to the local economy, and is clearly having an impact on an already corrupted state.The trade seems to be increasing as crackdowns in Kenya and Tanzania are diverting heroin through Mozambique.
    Link:http://www.lse.ac.uk/international-d...pers/WP190.pdf

    This helps to explain several large seizures of heroin on dhows along the East African coast which appear in the thread for Tanzania.
    Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ania-catch-all

    It may contribute to the reported insurgency as a corrupted, weak state is likely.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-02-2018 at 03:29 PM. Reason: 21,418v
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    Default Mozambique: Counting attacks and arrests diverts quest for stability and development

    An update on the situation by a local, though not from Mozambique:https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...-cabo-delgado/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-09-2018 at 09:45 PM. Reason: 23,195v today
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    Default Mozambique’s Next Step in Countering Violent Extremism

    A new article from The Wilson Centre (in the USA).

    A few passages:
    The experts, meanwhile, have warned against repression and advocated for ‘soft measures,’ to little discernable effect. The sum total is discouraging. One observer recently compared Northern Mozambique to Northeastern Nigeria at the beginning of the Boko Haram uprising.

    Mozambique may represent a new pattern as well. As Islamist militancy continues to spread across Africa, it is moving beyond hotspot countries—Nigeria, Somalia, Libya, Mali—and their immediate neighborhoods. Violent extremism is now reaching peripheral Muslim communities that, as a small fraction of an overall national population, are ancillary political players and something of an afterthought for the central government.
    Link:https://africaupclose.wilsoncenter.o...ent-extremism/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-20-2018 at 04:50 PM. Reason: 23,435v today
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    Default Tanzania arrests 104 people for plotting 'radical camps' in Mozambique

    A Reuters report on Tanzanian action, based on official statement(s) and includes this, possibly new information:
    Earlier this month, Mozambique put 189 people, including foreigners, on trial on accusations of involvement in Islamist attacks in Cabo Delgado.
    Link:https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ta...-idUKKCN1MU0N1

    Interesting to note Tanzania has a large natural gas field offshore that awaits investment.
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  6. #6
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Mozambique: the youth factor

    Eleanor Beevor is a new analyst @ IISS and has given permission to use part of a recent note on the global jihad. I have bolded one significant aspect:
    One of my concerns is that many of today’s struggling youth will recognise this fact. That is, when trying to advance their own localised struggles – be they social, political or economic – they will face the temptation of using jihadist allegiances and tactics for maximum reaction and effect. I therefore don’t think that we will see a decline in the declarations of jihad among marginalised youth around the world, or at least not for as long as that provokes an unmatchable reaction by national and international powers. We should certainly not dismiss youths’ attraction to jihad as a danger. But we should carefully consider our responses so as not to fan the flames of jihad’s symbolic power.

    To illustrate some of the vulnerabilities of marginalised youth, but also to make the point about the instrumental value of jihad to local struggles, I wish to zoom in on a violent Islamist movement gathering steam in northern Mozambique. It goes by a number of names, but is increasingly known as Al Shabaab, despite having dubious if any links to the Somali organisation. Radical preachers moved into the towns of Cabo Delgado northern Mozambique in 2015, and began establishing their own mosques, and also engaging local people – particularly youth – in complex business arrangements. They gave youth loans to start-up businesses of their choice, but later made clear that those they had lent to will have to perform services, including passing on profits for the group to fund attacks, which have rocked Cabo del Gado province for just over a year now. Those who did not make their agreed payments to the group were later targeted in attacks. Those who joined the sect could well have had ideological sympathies too. Islam in Mozambique is predominantly Sufi, but it appears that there is a radical network that has taken sufficient hold in the area to spread its ideology.

    However, what is also worth bearing in mind is the established grievance around inequality, lack of opportunity and natural resources in the region. In May 2018, several hundred young men protested against the lack of jobs available to them with the Andarko Liquefied Natural Gas company that had recently begun operating in the area. Their protest was more or less ignored by the authorities, and the outside world might never really know about it. Yet in June 2018, Anadarko’s foreign staff were evacuated because the staff were afraid of attacks from the group commonly called “Al-Shabaab”, and now the area is a matter of national and international concern. There is thus a troubling question here. What will those men protesting a lack of jobs have learned from this incident about political action? For one thing, they will have learned that violence gets attention. And it is also fair to ask whether a violent movement that did not ally itself with the jihadist cause would have gotten half as much attention as this one has now.

    The fact that this particular group has lured recruits with promises of start-up capital is also telling. They have found a way to exploit unemployed young people who are frustrated with their prospects. As anyone who has been unemployed for any length of time knows, there is a tremendous temptation to take the first opportunity that comes along, even if it is appears risky. To clarify, we need to be careful about seeing unemployment as a direct path to terrorism – evidently there are huge numbers of young men around the world who are unemployed and still do not engage in violence. But unemployment is a problem, and it is one that has solutions – solutions which international counter-terrorism efforts can support in a development capacity.
    Her bio:https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict...eleanor-beevor

    She has also provided a pointer to an October 2018 report on Northern Mozambique:https://globalinitiative.net/wp-cont...Report-WEB.pdf




    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-12-2018 at 01:36 PM. Reason: 24,161v today
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    Default Background reading from May & August 2018

    Somehow this May 2018 report appeared today on Twitter, citing a Mozambique-based news website and it appears to be part of the jigsaw to understand the situation. It opens with:
    A group of 30 to 40 members of the armed gangs that have attacked villages in northern Mozambique received training outside the country by militias with links to terrorist organisations, according to a study presented yesterday in Maputo. “These were the ones that were trained by groups operating in the Great Lakes region of Congo, mainly, and others such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya,” said researcher João Pereira, the co-author with Salvador Forquilha and Saide Habibe of the first systematic investigation into the link between recent violence and that type of organisations.
    Together, the three authors of the study, “Islamic Radicalisation in Northern Mozambique”, conducted 125 interviews during three visits to Cabo Delgado after the attack on the village of Mocímboa da Praia on October 5, 2017.
    Link:https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mi...ambique-study/

    I cannot readily find the original report, which may not be in English being written in Mozambique.

    Google did provide this August 2018 open source risk profile by a London-based private company:http://www.assayerisk.com/wp-content...sm-article.pdf
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-28-2019 at 01:36 PM. Reason: 25,369v today
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