Mozambique (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

Somehow this May 2018 report appeared today on Twitter, citing a Mozambique-based news website and it appears to be part of the jigsaw to understand the situation. It opens with:

A group of 30 to 40 members of the armed gangs that have attacked villages in northern Mozambique received training outside the country by militias with links to terrorist organisations, according to a study presented yesterday in Maputo. “These were the ones that were trained by groups operating in the Great Lakes region of Congo, mainly, and others such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya,” said researcher João Pereira, the co-author with Salvador Forquilha and Saide Habibe of the first systematic investigation into the link between recent violence and that type of organisations.
Together, the three authors of the study, “Islamic Radicalisation in Northern Mozambique”, conducted 125 interviews during three visits to Cabo Delgado after the attack on the village of Mocímboa da Praia on October 5, 2017.

Link:https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mi...ambique-study/

I cannot readily find the original report, which may not be in English being written in Mozambique.

Google did provide this August 2018 open source risk profile by a London-based private company:http://www.assayerisk.com/wp-content...sm-article.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Two contributions. The first from February 2019 which I missed by a academic SME and he starts with:

Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province has been held hostage by insurgents for nearly 17 months. Armed attacks, decapitations and the destruction of property have become common. Many are worried that the violence may escalate and destabilise the country’s economy further. One of the biggest problems is that nobody really knows who the insurgents are. They don’t make public statements, so their motives are unclear.

Link:https://theconversation.com/tracing-...urgency-111563

Then via Twitter a South African newspaper report and as a "taster":

the people who normally have answers to these kinds of questions are even more confused than before.The bottom line is that no one knows what is going on in northern Mozambique — and that anyone who has attempted to properly investigate has been threatened or arrested.....(Later) nobody has been able to speak to anybody involved.

Link:https://mg.co.za/article/2019-04-25-...-vd04g.twitter

[davidbfpo]

First there is an IS announcement that they are active in Mozambique and second a list of articles on this 'small war'. Cut & paste did not work, so read on:https://jihadology.net/2019/06/06/wi...to-mozambique/

[davidbfpo]

A CSIS event, with two panels, on June 6th 2hrs 49mins long and yet to be listened to!
Link:https://www.csis.org/events/understa...ern-mozambique

[davidbfpo]

It is a mystery to not only those closer. A very slim story that open with:

Seven people including a policeman were killed in northern Mozambique this week in a jihadist attack claimed by the Islamic State group, local sources said Saturday.

Link:https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/a...by-is-sources/

[davidbfpo]

From a previously unknown source, Global Voices NGO, and I have viewed the short video. It also provides an update on the situation which is so rarely reported, in part as few can visit the affected region.

Link:https://globalvoices.org/2019/07/26/...rn-mozambique/

[davidbfpo]

Most readers I expect will recall Mozambique has been blighted by a civil war for a very long time; no, not the current insurgency in the northern provinces.

Here is a shock, with my emphasis in bold:

A newly agreed deal could end 42 years of armed contest between the Mozambique Liberation Front-led government (FRELIMO) and the armed opposition party Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO). The agreement, due to be signed in August, is the third attempt and if it is to last, it will require political good will, compromise and an acceptance of more inclusive national politics by both parties.

To be fair there has been ceasefire between the government and RENAMO since 1992, but violence flares up, especially when elections are due and RENAMO has an estimated 5k fighters out in the bush.

I recall that RENAMO long ago had support from Rhodesia, after 1979-1980 support from South Africa for a long time and then IIRC no-one officially gave them support.

Two summary reports and the later has a fuller report (not read yet):https://af.reuters.com/article/topNe...CN1UW0WY-OZATP and https://www.chathamhouse.org/publica...ird-time-lucky