Ulenspiegel & American pride have already pointed matters of importance and I just want to add some basic thoughts.
1) History walks on a contingent path and it's outcome is not predetermined as the Marxist have hopefully learnt.
2) Even if we grant tendencies a momentum there is a big problem with your phase 3. It is highly dangerous to extrapolate the future from from mere 12 years of recent history. Compare that to the vast timespan until the supposed divide of the Westphalian Peace.
In general it still holds true that war is the continuation of politics* with the in-mixing of military means. Terrorism by non-state actors is also the continuation of their politics with means of their chosing. Sadly the advances of science have armed them as well and they a much bigger potential to inflict harm compared to similar actors 200 years ago. The result is sadly rather novel. However it is of course nothing compared to violence potential of (powerful) states. I will leave it there to keep it short.
*internal and external ones. The state was certainly no monolithic bloc in Clausewitzs view.
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