80% of Nigeria's govt spending is from oil money - that is why the Niger Delta militancy is a very serious problem.

But even with that, it is estimated that about 150,000 bpd is stolen from the Niger Delta. So in essence we are going to witness the growth of South American style cartels in the Niger Delta, challenging the Nigerian state's monopoly of violence.

You have an army taxed with maintaining internal security in opposite parts of Nigeria (North and South) - & there are already reports of grumbling among the rank and file.

But there are global headwinds that are not in our favour. Shale oil means that Nigeria will lose a very important customer, the United States. Crude could fall to $80 a barrel next decade.

In the long term, crude reserves will be depleted - so what will bind Nigeria's people? Will the Niger Delta be willing to subsidise the existence of the rest of Nigeria? I doubt it.