Nigeria 2013-2017

[omarali50]

I saw a segment on CNN where a Nigerian soldier was saying they had to buy their own kit because corrupt officers stole all the money and so on. Now this military actually defeated the Biafrans in the late 60s. Were they as corrupt then? or did they decay? or is this corruption story exaggerated?

[davidbfpo]

I saw a segment on CNN where a Nigerian soldier was saying they had to buy their own kit because corrupt officers stole all the money and so on. Now this military actually defeated the Biafrans in the late 60s. Were they as corrupt then? or did they decay? or is this corruption story exaggerated?

omarali50,

Corruption is endemic to Nigeria and IIRC there are a few posts here on the gap between the political establishment and the military. For the politicians the issue today is the approaching national elections.

Yes Biafra was defeated, but it took a long time - along with not inconsiderable external help - to overcome resistance: July 1967–January 1970. See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Civil_War

I have read in Sir David Richards book comments about the tactical prowess of the Nigerians in ECOMOG, now awhile ago in Sierra Leone (1998-2000). Times change and you are right that corruption, decay and more have shrunk Nigeria's military capabilities.

[davidbfpo]

At the end of a UK CT story is this paragraph, I'd not noted this being given publicity before:

The Ministry of Defence is also drawing up plans to deepen Britain’s involvement in the fight against Boko Haram Islamists in Nigeria, with up to 70 more military training specialists expected to be sent for 10 weeks to prepare the Nigerian armed forces for battle.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ot-deport.html

[Firn]

It might be important to point out the hefty impact of oil crash on Nigeria's economy, especially government's revenues and exports aka 'hard currency':

Nigeria’s Government Promotes Linkages in Oil Sector Nigeria is highly dependent on the oil sector, which is currently the country’s main source of its foreign exchange earnings and, growth although the contributions of non-oil sector to growth has been growing in recent years. From 1980 to 2010, oil revenues contributed an average of 76% of the federal government’s revenues. Nigeria’s exports are also seriously undiversified, with oil accounting for an average of 97% of exports over the same period. Nonetheless, efforts are being made to improve linkage between the oil sector and other sectors of the economy, albeit with moderate success.

From the UN report Media Kit 2013


The FT article "Nigeria devalues currency as oil prices drop" has a bit more about the problems around Nigeria's oil production and governance in years past:

The shortage of savings and hard currency reserves is partly the result of huge shortfalls in oil revenues being remitted to the treasury during the recent boom. Mr Sanusi, the former central bank governor, was suspended earlier this year after he alleged that up to $20bn owed by the state oil company was unaccounted for and warned he would be unable to defend the naira should there be an oil price shock. The findings of a PwC audit commissioned by the government on the allegations were due in August but have yet to be made public.

A big shortfall in the federal budget will hardly help in the fight against the Islamists...

[davidbfpo]

The authors of this paper are:

The House of Commons Library provides research, analysis and information services for MPs and their staff.

What does the paper aim to do?:

This paper looks at the multiple challenges facing Nigeria as it prepares for presidential and legislative elections on 14 February 2015. These elections will take place amidst an atmosphere of even greater crisis and uncertainty than usual. Boko Haram’s insurgency in the north of the country continues unabated. Over the last year, President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party have been accused of a complacent and incompetent response to the insurgency.
These developments, combined with deep divisions within the country’s elite, have resurrected old fears that the country might break up if the election aftermath is poorly handled.
However, some observers remain remarkably hopeful about Nigeria’s future, predicting that its enormous economic potential is on the verge of being realised at last.
The paper surveys the coming elections and then explores these hopes and fears about Nigeria’s future. It goes on to describe Nigeria’s relationships with the US, UK, EU, China and India before ending with a detailed country profile of Nigeria.

Link to 90 pg. report:http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-pa...ture-prospects

[Bill Moore]

http://www.dw.de/ghanaian-president-...rce/a-18202555

Ghanaian president backs regional anti-Boko Haram force

During a visit to Germany, President John Mahama of Ghana has called for an African Union-mandated force to "deal with the menace" of Boko Haram in Nigeria and neighboring countries.

It is finally getting to the point that countries in the region are pushing for collective action against BH. Read another report that some are questioning if it is even possible to have a legitimate election when so much territory is under BH control. However, I have seen no reports on elections being delayed.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to a WoTR commentary that identified the letter which was published in mid-December 2014, which is here in full:http://saharareporters.com/2014/12/1...tter-president

Here is Point 5 in full, with my highlight in bold:

This brings me to a recent occurrence which is my main purpose of writing this letter. As I mentioned earlier, due to the failure of the authority to address issues that I made mentioned, when a unit is attacked and overran by the BH not because the soldiers are unable to fight, but lack of weapons, ammunitions and communications equipment, the soldiers on many occasions will ran away, and a commander cannot stand and fight alone as a result of this. Presently seventy percent of commanders in the NE are facing Court Martial due to the reasons mentioned. We the commanding officers are very worried over this development. This is because we many soon find our self as victims of this maladministration from our higher authorities.

On the assumption it is true the picture given is not a great surprise and amidst the comments are some gems too - in particular the one that asks where does Boko Haram get hundreds of Toyota Hilux trucks from, with ample petrol?

The WoTR commentary:http://warontherocks.com/2015/01/bes.../?singlepage=1