Nigeria 2013-2017

[davidbfpo]

In recent days I have spotted a few articles commenting on the apparent decline of Nigeria's military, made even clearer as I have stated before, as its poorer neighbours take the offensive.

This South African article is typical, except for this passage:

In a small hospital in the Diffa region of southeastern Niger, a roomful of Nigerian soldiers wait patiently for medical workers to change their bandages. Their bullet wounds seep blood on to the floor of the whitewashed chamber. The air is heavy with the smell of disinfectant. These are just a handful of the roughly 300 Nigerian forces that retreated across the border in November 2014, after militant Islamist group Boko Haram attacked the town of Malam Fatori in Nigeria’s northeast.
Now, lying three to a bed in a foreign country, they are silent and defeated. A stronger image for the hopelessness hanging over the nation’s army could scarcely exist.

Link:http://mg.co.za/article/2015-03-19-b...armys-decline?

So Nigeria has left its wounded soldiers since November 2014 in another country's hospital, it is now March 2015 - an image of hopelessness is hardly strong enough.

[Bill Moore]

Interesting insights on BH from South Florida University

http://www.usfglobalinitiative.org/n...ights-issue-1/

•Since Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announcement to postpone the national election, Boko Haram has lost 80% of the territory in Northeast Nigeria seized as part of their Caliphate and has also suffered 73% of the total fatalities in the last 5 weeks of operations. The Nigerian security services (with multinational allies) are on the verge of holding true the guarantee to provide security for the February 28th elections. However, the Nigerian Chief of Army Staff, Lt General Kenneth Minimah indicated that elections may not hold in recaptured territories due to the absence of government structures as well as the challenge of providing security for returnees during the elections.
•Although military forces have weakened Boko Haram and “cleared” all but a few Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Borno state, the population does not have faith to return to their villages due to ongoing security issues and lack confidence in the military to provide long term security. The general perception in the north is that the physical recapture of towns and villages is not the same thing as providing security.

[davidbfpo]

The photo came via Twitter from a Nigerian-American and with this text:

Women in Maiduguri waiting for accreditation. There is no better evidence of rejection of BokoHaram

IIRC this city, Maiduguri, was surrounded by Boko Haram and under intermittent attack.

[Bill Moore]

The photo came via Twitter from a Nigerian-American and with this text:

IIRC this city, Maiduguri, was surrounded by Boko Haram and under intermittent attack.

While this is good news, rejecting BH is not enough, Nigeria must fight BH to the finish. It goes back to the strong do as they will, and the weak do as they must. Chad isn't overly impressed with the Nigerian military's fighting capability and will to fight. No doubt a lot of factors contribute to that, but the interesting point in the article below is we're back to the Cold War paradigm of partnering with anyone who will actually fight, versus partnering with partners of choice based on mutually aligned ideas and interest.

From the SWJ News Roundup

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/28/wo...ref=world&_r=0

Chad Strongman Says Nigeria Is Absent in Fight Against Boko Haram

“We want the Nigerians to come and occupy, so we can advance,” Mr. Déby complained in an interview at his palace last week. “We’re wasting time, for the benefit of Boko Haram,” he added. “We can’t go any further in Nigeria. We’re not an army of occupation.”

Diplomats and analysts acknowledge that the Nigerians have finally gotten into the fight, along with the help of South African mercenaries. But they still view Chad as an indispensable force. “I don’t see any way of successfully confronting the Boko Haram without Chadian assistance,” said the veteran diplomat.

That Western recognition for Mr. Déby and his army chafes, in turn, at the opposition and civil society in Chad, systematically locked out of power for years.

[davidbfpo]

I have often cited Virginia Comolli, from IISS as a SME on BH and Nigeria. Soon she has a book published, which has excellent reviews:http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/boko-haram/

Hat tip to save £ or US$ plus. If you register with Hurst for publication notices you can order a book pre-publication, at a reduced price and with free international P&P. This book is £16, not £20.

[Bill Moore]

http://theweek.com/articles/547474/n...ction-big-deal

Nigeria just had a peaceful election. This is a big deal

And Buhari is not a perfect person. He is a former military ruler of the country and was known for a poor human rights record. But he is seen as above corruption, and many feel that his autocratic touch might actually be what the country needs to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency — which was reportedly behind an attempt on his life in 2014. And Buhari put forward a more inclusive face this cycle, uniting the opposition behind him and garnering the Christian votes that failed him in 2003.

Bit by bit, slowly but surely, under our very noses, Africa, known for extravagant dictatorship and corruption, is moving towards democracy, accountability, and the rule of law. It's been a two-steps-forward-one-step-back process, still enormously frustrating, but over the past decades the trend is unmistakable. Most experts agree governance and corruption is Africa's biggest bottleneck when it comes to development. And once that is improved enough, Africa's excellent demographics mean it will become an economic and political powerhouse.

[davidbfpo]

Vice News has just uplifted the first of three reports from Northern Nigeria, it appears they were embedded with the Nigerian Army. The first clip, 9.5 mins, features interviews with civilians in the main. It is grim, although not with graphic footage:https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-...-haram-part-1?