Nigeria 2013-2017

[KingJaja]

But the ISI would appear to be providing arms and information to the Taliban as a part of official policy. What the Nigerian officers have been convicted of doing looks like a horse of a different color.

I'm telling you that certain Nigerian Army officers aren't supporting Boko Haram for money.

We had an attack on the Command & Staff College two years back - the Church on the premises was attacked. Some senior officers (Christians) lost their lives.

The ethno/religious balance in Nigeria is very delicate, so not everything makes it to front page news. Let me intimate you on the following facts:

1. Local communities support Boko Haram - this support is not insignificant.
2. Some in the military support Boko Haram - not for money, but for ideological/religious purposes - and with a military with significant numbers of Muslim officers & rank & file, this is a difficult problem to solve.

Not everything is "politically correct" to say.

[AdamG]

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (AP) — Boko Haram militants dressed as soldiers slaughtered at least 200 civilians in three villages in northeastern Nigeria and the military failed to intervene even though it was warned that an attack was imminent, witnesses said on Thursday.

A community leader who witnessed the killings on Monday said residents of the Gwoza local government district in Borno state had pleaded for the military to send soldiers to protect the area after they heard that militants were about to attack, but help didn't arrive. The killings occurred in Danjara, Agapalwa, and Antagara.

http://news.yahoo.com/witnesses-boko...102214122.html

[KingJaja]

More worrying news from North East Nigeria.

PS: Gombe hasn't witnessed much violence from Boko Haram - this is very troubling.

* Death count from earlier attacks reaches 110 - leaders

* Fleeing villagers stranded, short of food - senator

* Boko Haram has killed thousands, targeting civilians (Recasts)

By Isaac Abrak and Lanre Ola

ABUJA/MAIDUGURI, Nigeria, June 8 (Reuters) - A female suicide bomber killed herself and a soldier outside an army barracks in Nigeria's northeastern city of Gombe on Sunday, the military said, as local leaders reported the death count from a string of earlier militant attacks had reached 110.

No one claimed responsibility for the blast or last week's assaults but Islamist group Boko Haram has set off bombs and killed thousands in its five-year-old bid to carve out an Islamist state in the region.

Soldiers stopped the woman as she tried to get into the barracks with explosives hidden under her robes, defence headquarters said in a statement.

The device went off, killing her and a soldier searching her, it added. "I heard a loud sound and then black smoke covering the place ... We saw soldiers moving bodies," Gombe trader Bello Kasuwankatako told Reuters.

Witnesses had earlier said between three and five people died.

Boko Haram - which dominated world headlines by kidnapping more than 200 schoolgirls in April - has fought back against an army offensive, piling political pressure on President Goodluck Jonathan and the military to end the carnage.

Leaders from Gombe's neighbouring state of Borno told journalists on Sunday they had now buried 110 bodies from attacks on nine villages early last week - giving the first detailed breakdown on the casualties.

"It was a great tragedy. There are still corpses lying in the bushes surrounding the communities. Many of our people that fled to the top of the hills during and after the attacks are still there and now stranded," said Ali Ndume, a senator representing southern Borno.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0OP0Q220140608

[KingJaja]

Important warning from Nigeria's top Catholic. If Nigeria's top Catholic cardinal is of the opinion that Boko Haram has infiltrated the Military. Then imagine what ordinary Nigerians think.

Abuja (Agenzia Fides) - "The problem of Boko Haram threatens to undermine the unity of the Nigerian armed forces, especially if one gets to the point of interpreting what is happening in northern Nigeria as a religious clash between Christians and Muslims", says Cardinal John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, Archbishop of Abuja to Fides Agency.

The local press reports that a dozen senior officers and several enlisted men were convicted by a martial court for having supplied arms and ammunition to Boko Haram. "Some newspapers have published the news citing military sources, but the high command of the Armed Forces has denied the news" says Cardinal Onaiyekan. "I am sure that with time we will know the truth. It is clear, however, that there are Boko Haram sympathizers within the army. It is difficult, however, to quantify how many there are".

"My fear - the Cardinal continues - is that the campaign against Boko Haram is seen as an attack against Islam. Now this is what Boko Haram simply wants. Unfortunately, even among Christians there are those who tend to present the fight against Boko Haram as a clash between Christians and Muslims. It is a very dangerous vision, which could undermine the unity of the police. In the army you have Christians and Muslims who have hitherto acted together, as soldiers of our armed forces".

http://www.fides.org/en/news/35852-A...yekan_to_Fides

[KingJaja]

Nigeria apparently plans to use the "Sri Lankan method" to deal with Boko Haram. Anyway, this "method" was deployed during Nigeria's civil war - which resulted in 1 million dead (conservative estimate).

To crush Boko Haram insurgents, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters last week declared it would employ the “Sri Lankan method.”

It’s hard to imagine a worse idea.

Boko Haram’s brutal campaign in northern Nigeria demands urgent action to protect the civilian population. The militant Islamist group’s atrocities have killed thousands and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, sparking a humanitarian crisis in Nigeria’s northeast and across national borders. Boko Haram’s April kidnapping of nearly 300 schoolgirls has dramatically increased international attention on the problem and pressure on the government to resolve it.

But, before opting for “the Sri-Lankan method” to deal with an insurgency, Nigeria would do well to examine what that actually means.

Sri Lanka's war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), particularly in its final stages in 2009, caused tremendous and unnecessary human suffering. As the noose tightened around the insurgents – who were, like Boko Haram, responsible for numerous horrific abuses – nearly 300,000 civilians held as human shields by the LTTE became increasingly squeezed into a tiny area with little food or medicine. The military repeatedly and indiscriminately shelled the area, including a government-declared "no-fire zone" and hospitals trying to care for the sick and wounded.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/06/16/d...-model-nigeria

Any comments? Any reason to believe that this method will "work" in Nigeria?

[JMA]

This FP article is germaine to this discussion:

VOICE : Why Are Africa's Militaries So Disappointingly Bad?

... both armies have botched key domestic interventions when crises hit, exposing weaknesses that raise fundamental question marks about operational reliability.

and this:

"The West has this model of a disciplined, neutral army that stands on the sidelines, independent of domestic politics," explains Jakkie Cilliers of the Pretoria-based Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS). "But the African model is of a military that is used internally and is part and parcel of domestic politics and resource allocation."

The question really revolves arround what military operations are possible within the capabilities of the respective armies.

(This post has also been made in the latest Kenya thread)

[davidbfpo]

Africa Confidential is a longstanding private, London-based newsletter and rather unusually has allowed its latest commentary on Nigeria to be cited in full:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...an-faces-north

The sub-title gives a clue:

After two months in the global spotlight, the insurgency in northern Nigeria is fast turning into a national political crisis

The main part is on the politics of succession, although minus when the next scheduled presidential election is.

[JMA]

Nigerians Despair as Search for Girls Stalls

"We can't go and kill our girls in the name of trying to get them back," Nigeria's defense chief, Alex Barde, told a crowd protesting the government's response to the abduction in May. Commanders face more basic challenges, including disgruntled troops and equipment shortages.

Did anyone really believe the lie that the Nigerian military knew where the girls were - within a few kilometres or so - but the risk of rescue was too great?

That is still the line it seems. The truth is that the Nigerian military is operationally and logistically incapable of any military action in this regard even if they know where the girls are.

The fate of 223 girls is nothing against having to admit that their military is incapable and simply not up to the task.

In the post colonial era it is better to let the girls just disappear than to ask for help from the US or ex-colonial powers to do what their own military is incapable of doing.

Such are the realities of Africa.

[KingJaja]

David,

Africa Confidential is a longstanding private, London-based newsletter and rather unusually has allowed its latest commentary on Nigeria to be cited in full:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...an-faces-north

The sub-title gives a clue:
Quote:
After two months in the global spotlight, the insurgency in northern Nigeria is fast turning into a national political crisis
The main part is on the politics of succession, although minus when the next scheduled presidential election is.

A few points.

1. The British have never hid their preference for a blue-blooded Fulani aristocrat to govern Nigeria, failing that - anyone from the North.

2. What is the "North"? Western analysts often fail to realize that a significant Christian population is part of the "North" - they will find that out next elections.

3. Assuming Jonathan is removed "via a coup" - is the Niger Delta (where he comes from) supposed to sit idly by & twiddle their thumbs? They have 5,000km of pipelines - they can easily blow up a few and cripple Nigeria's economy.

4. This "analysis" is nonsensical. Those of us who live in Nigeria know that. It reflects the desires of Oxbridge-educated British diplomats who have deep personal ties with the North (from the days of Lugard in the North) - not Nigeria's current realities.

[omarali50]

This does sound like one of those trial balloons put out by Western think tanks or intelligence agences to foist some new idiot on the people in the name of stability and better governance. Western diplomats and intel agencies used to support that every 10 years in Pakistan too...and may do so again if the next Sherard Cowper-Coles has his way..

[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria Military Studies Sri Lankan Tactics for Use Against Boko Haram

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

Conflicting media reports, but government agencies deny there was a bomb blast - attribute it to "gas explosion".

Some media reports suggest a "female suicide bomber". If media reports are true, then it is a very dangerous first - the first suicide bombing in Southern Nigeria, or possibly the first Boko Haram foray south of the "Lugard line".

Very dangerous precedent.

The wreck of the vehicle is shown in the following link. Any explosive ordnance specialists here? Does this look like a car bomb or a "gas explosion"?

http://www.thecable.ng/blast-kills-3...farm-in-lagos/

[davidbfpo]

KingJaJa in Post 100 referred to a HRW report on the Nigerian military looking at the Sri Lankan option; this was followed up by an exchange on SWJ Blog:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/nig...nst-boko-haram

[JMA]

1 suspect held, 1 killed after deadly Nigeria bomb blast

"The casualty figure for now is 21 persons dead, 17 injured," national police spokesman Frank Mba said, adding that a suspect had been arrested.

Later the National Information Centre said a second suspect had been shot dead by troops as he tried to escape on a motorbike.

Senior government spokesman Mike Omeri confirmed that the blast was the result of "a bomb attack".

Things are hotting-up in Nigeria!

[KingJaja]

Interesting story.

(Reuters) - When Washington imposed sanctions in June 2012 on Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, he dismissed it as an empty gesture.

Two years later, Shekau’s skepticism appears well founded: his Islamic militant group is now the biggest security threat to Africa's top oil producer, is richer than ever, more violent and its abductions of women and children continue with impunity.

As the United States, Nigeria and others struggle to track and choke off its funding, Reuters interviews with more than a dozen current and former U.S. officials who closely follow Boko Haram provide the most complete picture to date of how the group finances its activities.

Central to the militant group’s approach includes using hard-to-track human couriers to move cash, relying on local funding sources and engaging in only limited financial relationships with other extremists groups. It also has reaped millions from high-profile kidnappings.

"Our suspicions are that they are surviving on very lucrative criminal activities that involve kidnappings," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in an interview.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0F636920140701

[KingJaja]

This is the first Boko Haram (or whoever) operation below the "Lugard line" (boundary between historical North & Southern Nigerian protectorate).

The significance of this attack cannot be underestimated. The Nigerian government covered it up, because the likely consequences (massive reprisal killings against Northerners in Lagos), would be too much for Nigeria to handle.

The "cat is out of the bag". An AFP investigation points to a bomb blast in Lagos (and possibly a suicide bomber).

But AFP has seen photographs of the scene showing a destroyed car plus damage to surrounding vehicles, which the British Army's former head of bomb disposal said left no doubt as to the cause.

"This was definitely an incident involving the use of high explosives," Bob Seddon, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran and a specialist in improvised explosive devices (IEDs), told AFP in an email exchange after reviewing the images.

"The type of blast effects and fragmentation pattern you would get from a gas explosion are quite different," the former Royal Logistics Corps colonel said, assessing that 25-50 kilos (55-110 pounds) of improvised high explosive were used.

Senior foreign diplomats also indicated privately that the blast was deliberate, attributing the official denials to fears over the potential effects of a confirmed first attack on Lagos, which drives the country's economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/lagos-fuel-dep...032353233.html

[davidbfpo]

A short article 'Talking to Boko Haram' on a Swiss blogsite makes interesting reading:http://www.offiziere.ch/?p=17101

Hopelessly optimstic IMHO, but dialogue is possible - as Northern Ireland and South Africa illustrate.

[KingJaja]

Davidbfpo,

Hopelessly optimistic. Boko Haram is as incoherent and illogical as Joseph Kony. Very few grounds for negotiation or dialogue.

[KingJaja]

Nobody outside Nigeria seems to figure out the significance of this attack. I've been shouting myself hoarse that a critical "red line" has been crossed.

Nobody is paying attention.

Lagos (AFP) - The head of Nigeria's Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for a bombing in the capital Abuja and an attack hours later in Lagos which the authorities tried to cover up, in a video obtained by AFP Sunday.

In the 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau also voices support for the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS) militants who have taken over large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.

He mocks the social media and protest campaign Bring Back Our Girls, which emerged after the Islamists kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls on April 14 from the remote northeastern town of Chibok.

The girls, whose abduction has drawn unprecedented attention to Boko Haram's five-year rebellion, are not pictured in the video, which was given to AFP through similar channels as past messages.

One previous recording showed more than 100 of the hostages, some of whom are Christian, reciting Muslim prayers.

Shekau also said his loyalists carried out twin car bombings in May in the central city of Jos and a June attack at a public health college in the northern city of Kano.

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/...-in-new-video/

As you can see from this map, Lagos is very far away from Nigeria's North East. If Boko Haram can strike Lagos - the consequences are what I'll discuss (at length) when I have the time.

[JMA]

Nobody outside Nigeria seems to figure out the significance of this attack. I've been shouting myself hoarse that a critical "red line" has been crossed.

Nobody is paying attention.

...but nothing has happened yet!

Is there any sogn of northerners leaving the South in anticipation of reprisals? But I agree could start anytime.