Nigeria 2013-2017

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

Things are progressively getting worse, state authority is eroding steadily. Government is losing monopoly of violence and respect.

It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

That is Nigeria's problem. The implosion will happen, not tomorrow, but it will happen.

[KingJaja]

Is there a limit to diversity? Look at this website, I'm a Christian from Southern Nigeria - we have organisations like this in Nigeria. Why am I part of the same nation as these people? Does this nation Nigeria, make any sense?

This is the link to the website: http://www.islamicmovement.org/

What exactly is a sense of national cohesion supposed to be built on? Can US influenced Evangelicals co-exist in peace with folks like this? No.

That, in a nutshell, is the problem with Nigeria. It is not a cohesive entity by any stretch of imagination. There's nothing binding these people together save a desire by the elite to share money made from crude oil sales.

Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

Nigeria is more complex than either Pakistan, Afghanistan or Syria - none of the aforementioned nations have several Evangelical churches that seat congregations of 14,000 and above.

This picture depicts an Evangelical auditorium at the opposite end of Nigeria (the South) that can accommodate one million worshipers



This congregation recorded over 60,000 babies born between August 10, 2011 & August 10, 2012 alone!!

It isn't the only Evangelical congregation in Nigeria, and it might not be the largest!!

Nigeria is like having Jerry Falwell & Ayatollah Khomeini in one nation. Also imagine that both men's influence in politics is steadily rising as the years go by.

Question: can even the United States of America manage that kind of diversity, talk less a much poorer & much more artificial Nigeria?

[Bill Moore]

http://www.islamicmovement.org/index...141&Itemid=161

Nigeria at 50: what next?

Translated from Hausa by Abdul Mumin Giwa

Where then is the problem, what is the trouble? Why refusing Islam when it allows you to practice your Christianity? Islam will not stop you from practicing your religion whether Christian or traditional. But it is not right for you to insist that you have right and that your right is that the majority keeps aside his own right. It is not the right of the minority for the majority to follow him.

There is an end to everything there is n end to the continued suppression of Islam. I know there will not be that round table decision on the way out for the country but definitely when the time comes Islam shall be established. We cannot possibly continue to stay like that whereas the Qur’an is there instructing us on what to do and we are believers in Islam. Whether you accept or not, Islam is on the rise and you cannot stop it. This is the reality and you cannot fight against reality. By the grace of God Almighty Islam is the destiny of this nation and this shall come to pass.

KingJaja

An excerpt from a speech found on the website you provided a link too. These are strong words, but they're just words. In the US we have left wings groups who want to establish a communist system, right wing groups who want to establish an Aryan Nation in the northwest, Islamists who want to establish Sharia law, etc., and if you read their websites you would think the world is falling, but the reality is none of these groups have the coercive power or power of attractive ideas to realize their visions. I agree the threat is more dangerous in your country, but I don't think the Christians and Animists will succumb to Islamic rule outside of the north. The potential for the bloodshed is definitely there, though it seems pretty high already to me.

I think you made a good point when you wrote,

It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

This seems true for all governments, it is hard to convince governments (especially democratic ones) to invest in the future or focus on prevention if the problem isn't perceived to be a pressing issue.

You wrote,

Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

I for one don't think any of us who live outside of Nigeria are as near as smart as you are on the nature of your problems. As for diversity the US is incredibly diverse and we make it work. It wasn't always that way, but has Bob Jones has pointed out in numerous post the civil rights movement and the subsequent civil rights bill was a defining moment in time for the US. There were extremists on both sides who used violence throughout, but our nation didn't allow it to be decisive. The majority had another vision and the will to pursue it politically. There will always be outsiders who continue to pursue their ends through violence such as the KKK, Black Panthers, Neo Nazis, but again they won't gain ground and the state still maintains dominance when it comes to coercive power to deal with these groups as criminals vice insurgents. What is possible in Nigeria? Are only the extremist voices heard? Are there leaders that can unify the people?

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

An excerpt from a speech found on the website you provided a link too. These are strong words, but they're just words. In the US we have left wings groups who want to establish a communist system, right wing groups who want to establish an Aryan Nation in the northwest, Islamists who want to establish Sharia law, etc., and if you read their websites you would think the world is falling, but the reality is none of these groups have the coercive power or power of attractive ideas to realize their visions. I agree the threat is more dangerous in your country, but I don't think the Christians and Animists will succumb to Islamic rule outside of the north. The potential for the bloodshed is definitely there, though it seems pretty high already to me.

I don't think you understand Nigeria. These are not mere words. Religion has a role in politics in Nigeria that is unthinkable in the United States.

I need to remind you that thousands have been killed in religious riots in Northern Nigeria - and words like those trigger those riots.

Secondly, I don't think the United States of America is a diverse nation in the same way Nigeria is a diverse nation.

In the US, a group of Anglo-Saxon settlers laid the ground rules - separation of church and state, no kings, property rights, a common law system etc. Diversity in the US means getting people from different backgrounds to obey these ground rules, then accommodating minor differences.

True, the story of African Americans was sad, but there was a common understanding of what an ideal America should look like.

Diversity in Nigeria is an entirely different beast - there are no ground rules.

On fundamental issues like the nature of the Nigerian state, there are no ground rules - is Nigeria a secular state or not?

Very few people in Northern Nigeria accept that Nigeria is a secular nation.

In Northern Nigeria Shari'a law applies to criminal matters. If a Muslim converts to Christianity, he's treated like a criminal under the law.

Did the US ever have to deal with a religiously derived legal system competing with a secular legal system

Nigeria, like most African nations, is an artificial construct overlaying many ancient societies with thousand year old cultures and ground rules. Similarities can be found between cultures, but in many cases, the gulf is too wide to be bridged.

Americans don't like to hear this, but there is very little the US can teach Nigeria (or any African nation) about diversity.

US is a settler nation (like Australia) that resulted from the elimination of indigenous cultures and the imposition of a dominant settler culture.

Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants. In Nigeria (& most of Africa) there is no dominant culture - so US style diversity WILL NOT work here.

[Bill Moore]

Hopefully this doesn't surprise you, but I agree with 90% or more of your response. I don't claim to understand Nigeria after only spending a few months there, but the situation did and does fascinate me. I wasn't offering the America way as the solution, simply presenting how our nation wrestled with deep ethnic divides and at least relieved enough tension to avoid what could have been a much bloodier civil conflict.

True, the story of African Americans was sad, but there was a common understanding of what an ideal America should look like

.

You touched on a key point. We did have an idea of what being American was, it wasn't about skin color or gender, but it took us years to actualize the idea (at least get closer to it). That idealism is what enabled the Civil Rights Movement to be successful. If the idea of equality didn't exist it would have failed before it started, so like all things context matters.

I also think many Americans, myself included don't see it as a black and white issue, though that seems to dominate the media. To understand multicultural integration you also have to look at the Cubans, Hispanics, Russians, Italians, Chinese, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Irish, and a growing Muslim population among others. Yes it very different situation in Nigeria and Africa as a whole, but still worth studying.

You may be right that,

Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants.

That is a perspective I haven't heard before, but it makes sense.

I don't agree with you that the US is secular. You wrote,

Did the US ever have to deal with a religiously derived legal system competing with a secular legal system?

We have been dealing with this issue from the beginning and continue to do so today. Many Europeans are surprised at the level of influence religion has on our society. In general these are not violent contests, but arguments contested in court. What seems to be changing is the strength of the far left and their political correctness movement which is similar to Mao's Reformation minus the millions killed, who are attempting to dictate through law what people can say, read, and think. In turn this is spawning a revival of the far right, and unfortunately the middle is disappearing. This seems to be happening throughout much of the West, so we're seeing a growing divide between the far left and right now that could result in considerable violence if we lose touch with our core accepted values that define us. Again we're not Nigeria, but we're not immune to these problems.

Finding answers for Nigeria is the task of the Nigerian people. We need to focus more on solving our own problems. Of course the West and UN could intervene and attempt to impose a solution on Nigeria if eventually comes close to failing, but that is almost guaranteed to fail before it starts.

[ganulv]

US is a settler nation (like Australia) that resulted from the elimination of indigenous cultures and the imposition of a dominant settler culture.

Managing diversity in the US is about tinkering around the edges of the dominant settler culture to make allowances for new entrants. In Nigeria (& most of Africa) there is no dominant culture - so US style diversity WILL NOT work here.

That’s an interesting take, and it might be the way things work out. There has certainly been a growing backlash against it post-Obama, though.

This may seem flippant, but a friend of mine was trying to figure out what was going on with the costumes of the Miss Universe contestants this past weekend. Several of the Western nations seemed to be using the event to demonstrate their commitment to their variation on diversity. (Some of the get-ups, including that of Miss USA, do just look kind of silly.) How does Miss Nigeria read to Nigerians?

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

We have been dealing with this issue from the beginning and continue to do so today. Many Europeans are surprised at the level of influence religion has on our society. In general these are not violent contests, but arguments contested in court. What seems to be changing is the strength of the far left and their political correctness movement which is similar to Mao's Reformation minus the millions killed, who are attempting to dictate through law what people can say, read, and think. In turn this is spawning a revival of the far right, and unfortunately the middle is disappearing. This seems to be happening throughout much of the West, so we're seeing a growing divide between the far left and right now that could result in considerable violence if we lose touch with our core accepted values that define us. Again we're not Nigeria, but we're not immune to these problems.

Let me explain the Nigerian situation to you in a bit more detail.

A large part of Northern Nigeria is a remnant from the Kanem-Bornu Empire & the Sokoto Caliphate - two of the most prominent Islamic kingdoms in The Sudan.

The British made no attempt to separate religion from governance (although some aspects of Shari'a like amputation were forbidden). But try as they might, nobody could prevent the spread of (Evangelical) Christianity to those parts of Nigeria.

So in Northern Nigeria, you have a situation where there is state government funded religious police (Hisbah), the state discourages the construction of Churches & discourages the spread of Christianity - but promotes the spread of Islam; by building Mosques.

This is a recipe for a DISASTER - and this has no parallel in the United States or the Modern Western World.

Imagine the problems Britain is facing with its growing Islamic Minority (and calls for Shari'a law) - now imagine if Britain had to deal with Evangelical Christianity in addition to Fundamentalist Islam - & poverty & illiteracy?

[KingJaja]

ganulv,

Nigeria's Muslim community dislikes beauty contest. In fact, the bloodiest riot in response to a beauty contest happened in Nigeria in 2002.

About 200 people were killed during those riots. (Many Christians)

So even among the Christian population, beauty contests might leave a bitter taste.

Quite simply, very few people in Nigeria bother about beauty contests.