Nigeria 2013-2017

[KingJaja]

Moderator Adds

Post edited down for use on this new thread, it originally appeared on the AFRICOM stands up thread. There are several posts there which give some background:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=6167&page=18

Today, 6th December 2013, this thread 'Nigeria's future: where to start?' was renamed 'Nigeria: watching and debating its future' and becomes the current thread. The older, longer thread ' ' has now been closed, with a final post explaining why.(ends).

I'm Nigerian, I live in Nigeria - and even if you casually dismiss history with a wave of a hand, I wont. I've seen 15,000 dead since 1999, a clash of civilizations with Sharia in the North and Evangelical Christianity rising in the South.

Who could have dreamed up such a time bomb - the British, who had no interest in understanding the situation on the ground, just grabbing resources for the home counties.

These things will be settled, with much blood & zero input from the West - we saw it Yugoslavia. That is Nigeria's trajectory. We could have a discussion on that.

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja suggested a discussion, so a new thread appears. Nigeria's size alone makes it important, let alone its complexity and wealth. Maybe first for Africa, then the rest of the world.

This will appear first until two posts from the AFRICOM thread where Kingjaja made his suggestion will appear, are moved.

Now let the discussion begin.

Incidentally I don't envisage external intervention in a future Nigeria, on the scale seen in former Yugoslavia.

[davidbfpo]

Kingjaja,

The break-up of Yugoslavia pre-dates SWJ, it does sometimes appear in posts and there is at least one SWJ article:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...-of-bosnia-and

Europe, particularly Western Europe, would prefer not to remember what happened and much political plus effort has been expended to make amends. As last week proved in Kosovo local tensions can lead to skirmishing:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24798397

The Balkans have a long history, largely out of sight when part of the Ottoman / Turkish Empire; where religion, tribe, community and more intersect in close proximity. Partnership did happen - in peace and war - and Sarajevo (Bosnia-Herzegovina's main city and provincial capital) was noted for the extent of inter-marriage.

It took several days of violence and barbarity - my reading blames the Serbian extremists - to force everyone to "take a side" and so fracture communal partnership.

Today there is a sort of peace in Bosnia and the former Yugoslavia, with each nation-state joining or aspiring to EU status (Slovenia, the smallest, most homogeneous and with the most peaceful escape joined the EU sometime ago).

Is Nigeria on the same trajectory? I don't know, but the Bosnian experience provides some clear warnings.

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

Sadly, Nigeria is on the same trajectory.

Most foreign analysts concentrate on Boko Haram or the Niger Delta crisis, because they fit easy categories (War on terror & Energy security).

Having said that, Nigeria's most deadly fault-lines are in the Middle Belt - where the former Sokoto Caliphate & Kanem-Bornu Empire meet Christianised ethnic groups.

Nowhere is this more visible than in the Middle Belt's most important cities - Kaduna & Jos. In Kaduna, a river separates the Christian part of the city from the Muslim part. When I traveled to Kaduna, I was advised to land at a Abuja & travel to Kaduna from the South (since I was a Christian). Muslims are advised to land at Kaduna airport & pass through Muslim populated parts of the city.

Sharia law is implemented some states in that part of Nigeria & while "multi-culturally educated Western intellectuals" can advance sophisticated arguments in favour of Shari'a law - Nigerian Evangelicals will not.

And the average poorly educated conservative Nigerian Muslim doesn't see the need for sophistication either. So people fight & kill.

The anti-Shari'a riots tore Kaduna apart. Since 1999 about 15,000 people have died in inter-communal clashes (ethnic animosities tinged with religion). One can see clear fault lines there.

This thing isn't going to stop. Nobody is going to stop the Saudis from sending Wahabbi preachers or sponsoring religious students. Nobody is going stop American TV evangelists. The nation is bifurcating there.

And that is only one fault line.

So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.

[KingJaja]

80% of Nigeria's govt spending is from oil money - that is why the Niger Delta militancy is a very serious problem.

But even with that, it is estimated that about 150,000 bpd is stolen from the Niger Delta. So in essence we are going to witness the growth of South American style cartels in the Niger Delta, challenging the Nigerian state's monopoly of violence.

You have an army taxed with maintaining internal security in opposite parts of Nigeria (North and South) - & there are already reports of grumbling among the rank and file.

But there are global headwinds that are not in our favour. Shale oil means that Nigeria will lose a very important customer, the United States. Crude could fall to $80 a barrel next decade.

In the long term, crude reserves will be depleted - so what will bind Nigeria's people? Will the Niger Delta be willing to subsidise the existence of the rest of Nigeria? I doubt it.

[Bill Moore]

KingJaja,

So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.

I question two of your assertions here, first the level of violence in Yugoslavia was on par with anything seen in Africa, and poverty in Eastern Europe was shockingly deep outside the cities. I am showing by bias because I didn't think European countries would ever be like that. The one thing that is non-disputable is you have many more people.

I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

If your right and the fault lines give in Nigeria how will that impact the rest of the region? I can't see these conflicts being contained within your borders.

[KingJaja]

Bill Moore,

I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

Things are progressively getting worse, state authority is eroding steadily. Government is losing monopoly of violence and respect.

It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

That is Nigeria's problem. The implosion will happen, not tomorrow, but it will happen.

[KingJaja]

Is there a limit to diversity? Look at this website, I'm a Christian from Southern Nigeria - we have organisations like this in Nigeria. Why am I part of the same nation as these people? Does this nation Nigeria, make any sense?

This is the link to the website: http://www.islamicmovement.org/

What exactly is a sense of national cohesion supposed to be built on? Can US influenced Evangelicals co-exist in peace with folks like this? No.

That, in a nutshell, is the problem with Nigeria. It is not a cohesive entity by any stretch of imagination. There's nothing binding these people together save a desire by the elite to share money made from crude oil sales.

Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

Nigeria is more complex than either Pakistan, Afghanistan or Syria - none of the aforementioned nations have several Evangelical churches that seat congregations of 14,000 and above.

This picture depicts an Evangelical auditorium at the opposite end of Nigeria (the South) that can accommodate one million worshipers



This congregation recorded over 60,000 babies born between August 10, 2011 & August 10, 2012 alone!!

It isn't the only Evangelical congregation in Nigeria, and it might not be the largest!!

Nigeria is like having Jerry Falwell & Ayatollah Khomeini in one nation. Also imagine that both men's influence in politics is steadily rising as the years go by.

Question: can even the United States of America manage that kind of diversity, talk less a much poorer & much more artificial Nigeria?

[Bill Moore]

http://www.islamicmovement.org/index...141&Itemid=161

Nigeria at 50: what next?

Translated from Hausa by Abdul Mumin Giwa

Where then is the problem, what is the trouble? Why refusing Islam when it allows you to practice your Christianity? Islam will not stop you from practicing your religion whether Christian or traditional. But it is not right for you to insist that you have right and that your right is that the majority keeps aside his own right. It is not the right of the minority for the majority to follow him.

There is an end to everything there is n end to the continued suppression of Islam. I know there will not be that round table decision on the way out for the country but definitely when the time comes Islam shall be established. We cannot possibly continue to stay like that whereas the Qur’an is there instructing us on what to do and we are believers in Islam. Whether you accept or not, Islam is on the rise and you cannot stop it. This is the reality and you cannot fight against reality. By the grace of God Almighty Islam is the destiny of this nation and this shall come to pass.

KingJaja

An excerpt from a speech found on the website you provided a link too. These are strong words, but they're just words. In the US we have left wings groups who want to establish a communist system, right wing groups who want to establish an Aryan Nation in the northwest, Islamists who want to establish Sharia law, etc., and if you read their websites you would think the world is falling, but the reality is none of these groups have the coercive power or power of attractive ideas to realize their visions. I agree the threat is more dangerous in your country, but I don't think the Christians and Animists will succumb to Islamic rule outside of the north. The potential for the bloodshed is definitely there, though it seems pretty high already to me.

I think you made a good point when you wrote,

It is much easier to reverse a sharp decline than to reverse a slow, steady decline over several decades - such a decline tends to be irreversible.

This seems true for all governments, it is hard to convince governments (especially democratic ones) to invest in the future or focus on prevention if the problem isn't perceived to be a pressing issue.

You wrote,

Now all you folks are a lot smarter than I am - please someone should tell me how this "diversity" (coupled with very low literacy rates) will not lead to an ongoing "clash of civilizations"?

I for one don't think any of us who live outside of Nigeria are as near as smart as you are on the nature of your problems. As for diversity the US is incredibly diverse and we make it work. It wasn't always that way, but has Bob Jones has pointed out in numerous post the civil rights movement and the subsequent civil rights bill was a defining moment in time for the US. There were extremists on both sides who used violence throughout, but our nation didn't allow it to be decisive. The majority had another vision and the will to pursue it politically. There will always be outsiders who continue to pursue their ends through violence such as the KKK, Black Panthers, Neo Nazis, but again they won't gain ground and the state still maintains dominance when it comes to coercive power to deal with these groups as criminals vice insurgents. What is possible in Nigeria? Are only the extremist voices heard? Are there leaders that can unify the people?

[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria Falls Into 'a State of War' as Islamist Insurgency Rages

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[SWJ Blog]

Waging War in Nigeria, and Seeking New Battlegrounds

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[SWJ Blog]

Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram

Which explains a lot!



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[SWJ Blog]

Nigeria Military Studies Sri Lankan Tactics for Use Against Boko Haram

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[SWJ Blog]

Investing in Powerful Networks in Nigeria?

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[KingJaja]

Report from local news media, disturbing trend.

.Shoot me if you want, a female suicide bomber dares police
.Holding a Bible and pretending to be a worshipper, another detonated a bomb
.With a hug the third bomber blows up a soldier
.From a wheelchair the third throws a bomb at her target
The policemen who were stationed at the Eid prayer ground near North-West University in Kofar-Nasarawa in the ancient city of Kano were astonished when a teenage girl, clad in a brown hijab, walked confidently and hurriedly towards them where they were stationed in order to monitor the activities in the environment.
Apparently unsuspecting that danger was approaching them, the policemen handled her presence with levity. When she got too close for comfort, the policemen queried her. But rather than stop, she kept moving towards them. Speaking to Sunday Trust on their encounter with the young lady, who later became a suicide bomber, one of the policemen said when the girl refused to stop, they activated their guns.
“At first, we thought she wanted to come and give us a report about a security breach around the place, but when she moved quickly towards us, we all activated our guns. Yet, she didn’t stop,” the policeman said. “When we asked her to stop, she refused. She rather told us in Hausa that if we wanted to kill her we should.”
The policeman said it was while the conversation was going on that a loud bang tore through the air, such that they all had to dive to take cover.
“We took cover, but we all sustained injuries. We went down flat because we were afraid that her colleagues may be nearby,” he said.

http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/sunday/...uicide-bombers

[davidbfpo]

A round up in The Guardian on those black and white South Africans, who fought thirty years ago in their 'small wars', notably in SW Africa (now Namibia) and today "advising" in Nigeria:

Who are the members of this dad’s army, willing to risk death abroad and prosecution at home to fight someone else’s war? What is their motivation? And are they welcomed by those they are ostensibly helping?

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-on-boko-haram

Their activity is not popular back home, indeed the government says they will be prosecuterd - even if "advising" the Nigerian state.

Helmoed Heitman a veteran South African journalist on military matters sums them up best:

They have no problem working with black guys and don’t have a racial hangup. Most people in Africa have long since realised this. What they look for is someone with real shooting experience. The old SANDF are not always liked, necessarily, but they are highly regarded.

As I posted in the current Nigeria thread you can spot them sometimes, in Post 213:

There is a very short clip (starts at 10:46) which suggests the advisers were far more important, as they had wheeled APCs - which the Nigerian Army unit did not have and if you stop the film at 11:01 you see a parade with at least eight white advisers and two or three at the front conducting the parade.

Link:https://news.vice.com/video/the-war-...o-haram-part-3

In a Post 204:A South African report on the convoluted context for

Beeld newspaper had reported that former SADF soldiers would form the core of a multinational team of private military experts, who were then en route to Nigeria, to help the NDF fight against Boko Haram militants. The 100-strong team had been tasked with training the Nigerian military to launch a massive campaign against the terrorist organisation.

They have been in country for a significant time already, involved in training some specialised NDF units. As per normal they are now deployed in an advisory capacity at the front. This includes being deployed with the NDF special forces, artillery, armour and infantry units on the ground. ‘Most of the gunships [Mi 24 Hinds] are being piloted by former SAAF members and they are flying a huge number of sorties, including nocturnal operations, with great success. There is also close involvement at HQ level, assisting in the planning of operations and the coordination / interpretation of the intelligence effort.

[AdamG]

Sounds more effective than a Hashtag campaign.

[SWJ Blog]

Exploring Networks Competing for Influence: Kano State, Nigeria

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[okpismart]

Based on the number of people that have been killed and the circumstances surrounding their deaths, one can easily conclude that Boko Haram is a far more brutal and ruthless terror organization than ISIS.

Don't believe me? SEE THIS

These are just few of the reported ones that happened this January. There are still countless unreported cases where Boko haram hit communities and wipe out every human being in them.

The bad thing is that the western press have shown very little concern when it comes to reporting their nefarious activities. Also the various governments of Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are busy suppressing the statistics so as to hide their incompetence.

God save us

[davidbfpo]

A "long read" article, adapted from a forthcoming book; sub-titled:

How the tattered remnants of an Islamist sect transformed into a relentless terrorist army that Nigeria cannot defeat

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-of-boko-haram