KingJaja,

So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.
I question two of your assertions here, first the level of violence in Yugoslavia was on par with anything seen in Africa, and poverty in Eastern Europe was shockingly deep outside the cities. I am showing by bias because I didn't think European countries would ever be like that. The one thing that is non-disputable is you have many more people.

I have heard claims of Nigeria's imminent fall for well over 15 years, and while I agree the trend line is troubling yet your country seems remarkably resilient to what would cause other countries to collapse. On the other hand if your predictions are correct then I agree the situation will be dire for a number of reasons. Since Nigeria is the heart of ECOWAS who will be willing to step up and lead a regional response to support Nigeria? The West is exhausted and broke after 10 plus years of failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is unlikely they'll have the political will to intervene. Though Nigeria is more important strategically than the Sudan, I suspect Sudan will be the model of our response.

If your right and the fault lines give in Nigeria how will that impact the rest of the region? I can't see these conflicts being contained within your borders.